Member Info for Billy-Bunter

The reference to end of summer isn’t a surprise to me. I still plan to keep buying and believe that in 12-18 months time ill be looking at a tidy return here.
Bill

Hello PM44 and all. I'm afraid I was distracted over the weekend - I've got an elderly Father who has some health problems, which had me spending the entire weekend supporting my parents.

So, here is a brief summary of my Friday afternoon:

* I got to AVO about 5 minutes before the AGM started. There were about 7 AVO staff in their conference room (including Nicolas Serandour) and a fair number of people/AVO senior staff calling in via video conference. I was the only private shareholder in physical attendance.
* AVO dealt with the routine business of approving the AGM resolutions, which all went through by a huge margin.
* Nicolas then gave a presentation on AVO, the technical status, market size/opportunity, etc.
* The milestone target of having a working system within the summer period remains. I didn't see any wavering over it.
* I asked some questions around the 510K & CE marking, which fitted with my own understanding of the process for those two objectives. This is good.
* Additionally, I asked about a registration in China with the NMPA, which AVO will need to apply for at some point. I was quite comforted to hear that AVOs regulatory head was a contributor into creating China’s own regulatory standards for Proton Therapy systems.
* I also asked about future funding. I was pleased to hear that they are looking at a variety of options, which may include a non-dilutive option.
* We spoke about some of the challenges inherent in such a large project, having to work within medical device R&D regulatory constraints. They demand your development work follows a bucket load of procedures and medical device standards that affect almost all parts of the business and even suppliers. I’ve been through that all myself and know how difficult it is and what an achievement getting through to the end is. We also discussed how challenging, expensive and lengthy (timewise) it would be for a competitor to come in. Again, I agree, and I think it adds to making AVO a future acquisition target.
* Apparently a number of senior staff from Varian joined AVO very quickly after they got a good look at AVOs technology and progress they’d made.

Nicolas answered the majority of my questions. He gave me very straight answers, without hesitation or any attempts to avoid giving a complete answer. All of the staff I met were very friendly and made a point of engaging with me and shaking my hand.

I was glad I went and plan to keep buying shares at the current share price. For anyone who can afford to buy and hold for a descent length of time (like me), I think they currently represent good value. I just checked my average and I’m now at 26p with approaching 700,000 shares in the bag.

Bill.

No worries, Jayber (John)
I'll be leaving here at about midday to get the train into Waterloo from Surrey.
I'll post a short summary of how this goes, probably over the weekend.
Bill

P.S. I’m aware that could could come across as being a bit negative. It’s because I’ve got an understanding in this area that I’m interested in AVO and have been buying LOTS of extra shares recently. Those who can afford to hang on and not get disheartened if things take a bit longer, such as if the 510k proves takes longer, stand to be very handsomely rewarded. Yes, there could be some further dilution, but I can see a path through this to a much higher share price.
Bill

Thank you, Vanilla
I did listen to the interview with interest. I own two businesses. One makes laboratory equipment for use in the R&D/drug discovery end of the pharma business and the other is a consultancy that project manages complex IVD and medical device product developments, including generating all of the documentation needed for 510k, CE and NMPA (that’s Chinese FDA) registrations. And management of the registration process. So, I’ve got lots of real world experience with what AVO are trying to do.
I’d be very wary of the 90 day period. Actually, when you get into it, the 90 days is days of FDA review time. With a total allowable period of 180 days before a submission needs to either be approved or resubmitted. What does this mean? Well, when you get into the practicalities of 510k submissions, the FDA will often review a submission so far, come up with questions and then put your submission on hold (stop their 90 day clock) whilst they let you go off and work on a reply.they can also be sneaky and do this when they are very busy, trying to juggle their 510k commitments - not how they should behave, but it absolutely happens. Then, when you respond, restart their 90 day clock. This means that submissions can actually take as long as 180 days (yes, I’ve been there) and based upon my experience I think 90 days straight without the FDA using submission hold time for something new like this would be very unusual.
Being prudent, I’d go with this being 90 minimum, plus some amount to account for submission hold, dealing with questions that require responses from AVO that take time to respond to (these could include a request for AVO to do actual work). I’d thus say the window you are looking at is somewhere in the range 90-180 days, but hopefully nearer the 90 day end of the scale.
The bottom line is the 510k review process can be an exciting ride and highly challenging to predict the overall timeline precisely. I’ve seen sensor company executives almost bought to tears when their 510k is not going as expected, along a longer timeline path and all of the pressures and uncertainty that can create.
Bill

I am still going tomorrow, didn't get a reply from Jayber. I will try and ask Vanilla's question if I get a chance, but I'm not going along to 'tie them down' as you put it. If that is your interest Bimini I suggest you make the time to show up tomorrow and say your piece.
Bill

Give it a rest, Citizen. That was hardly negative. I’m actually very pleased with the RNS. It contaIned more detail than I was hoping for.
Bill

Thank you, RMM! Missed that when I speed read through this just now.
Bill

No mention of 1801 for COVID. What do others think? I’m sure they must still be looking to progress it.

And….! Another 2 million sold showing as a delayed trade….

I hope someone out there doesn’t know something that we should.

Bill

My goodness - someone just sold 2 million shares at 24p. A big sale. A bit surprising as I think we are (hopefully, finally) at the bottom now.
Bill

Hello Vanilla,
I understand your question and I'll do my best to ask it if the opportunity presents itself.
Bill

Hello Jayber,
Yes, I was in contact with Petrunka at AVO who kindly sent me an email confirming that I can attend. Probably it would be safest if you email her as well just to have a spot for you confirmed. I'll send you a direct message with her email address. Let me know if you don't get the message. And, I'd be happy to meet up before we attend.
Bill

* Am I the only one on this board who is going?

Thank you, Vanilla

I did have that table copied into my own research notes. I just didn't join the dots up that some warrants had already been taken from the 20.5M @ 25p.

And, I called Charles Stanley this morning to purchase an additional 100,000 shares. But, they could only immediately deal in 50,000. I've got them on the hunt now for the other 50,000.

I just emailed AVO to check I don't need to register to attend the AGM on the 29th. Am the only one on this board who is going?

Bill

* Jayber

ayber: I appreciate your enthusiasm, but i think you are jumping the gun a bit. Its been a small rise and I'm not reading too much into it (yet).

Vanilla: Are you please able to say with which investor/institution those warrants sit?

Assuming the share prices stays in the mid 20s, its looking like I'll top out at about 550,000 shares. Naturally I hope they give a descent return. I do think the picture here looks much better now and the share price looks set to be driven by more 'whens' than 'ifs'. I see a lot to like. A novel/disruptive product, cheaper and more effective than the incumbent competition, close to be fully working, validated and regulatory approved for sale. Which will allow existing sales to be formally booked (and I think revenue to be progressively taken as they move through manufacture to delivery). And, achieving the near term milestones will probably see more sales drop - I'm sure AVO is talking to other prospective customers. Plus, quite a lot of warrants at 60p equal to about £50M.

If everything comes together, this could be in the range 60p-£1 by the end of the year.

Thank you, Max
And, I bought an additional £8k this morning also
Bill

I hope you are right Max and I’m making the same assumption. In fact I bought an additional 50,000 shares this morning and plan to buy another 250,000 in the next couple of weeks.

Interesting. OMass is one of my customers.