Member Info for Bigtrader_CD2021

Capehake - read a book.

^ Yup

No one will bankroll that transaction, even if they were foolish enough to propose it.

Just to confirm, you want Cineworld to buy Cineplex?

New business profits in Asia have always been strong in key markets in Asia. The real growth engine is the H&P business in Hong Kong, which carries that %100+ NBP margin.

I'd quite like to see how it performs against Ping An in China (and how they plan to match Ping An's digital superiority) and generally more plans to diversify markets in Asia. Prudential is very reliant on Hong Kong for growth. Some of the less profitable markets in Asia could be reviewed. It would be good to see more financials on Africa, even on an IFRS basis.

Alex - there are lots of companies doing exciting things that aren’t valued at $1 trillion +. Tesla is a remarkable company, even if a substantial portion of its revenue is based on regulatory credits.

The current valuation for Tesla defies reason. I wouldn’t expect it to last. Despite its recent performance, I still don’t buy that it is worth more than the next ten largest automakers combined.

The valuations provided are generally based on a number assumptions (discount rates made up on government bond yields, beta and business risk, economics, growth rates, demographics, multiples etc.). They are logical and better than the blind guesswork/past observation that drives most retail investment. But assumption quality is potentially an issue. Even decent assumptions are subject to events beyond control or possible observation (covid).

Banks do it for personal gain to the extent that the research is sold to firms that want market information and analysts estimates for a given security. There are strict rules in place to prevent collusion, although for equity analysts collusion risk is normally seen between the analyst and the company being rated.

Understand that bonkers - I think I covered that!

capehake - you have achieved BC status. Congrats.

Generally the principle. Most people on here are very quick to discredit lending stock, despite its vital importance in providing liquidity to markets and in transferring risk. What is appropriate for someone's investment approach may not be for someone else. It depends on a number of factors (wealth, risk appetite, investment horizon etc.).

That said, I appreciate most commentators on here that are openly short have an agenda and are very loud about it (same can be said for the rampers cough* BC *cough). Regardless, we needn't stoop to their level. Open discussion should always be encouraged.

We should try to refrain from gloating. Positive and negative intra month movements are significant. Everyone would be shouting green coffin or deramper if the reverse were to happen tomorrow. An increase in the share price is great but we're still down 40% from a few months ago.

Squid - did you even bother to read the first post on this thread?

If you're using the Motley fool to support your investment decisions/argument then you have bigger problems ahead mate.

Ultimately, provided no development in covid (positive or negative) or the CP appeal, the biggest driver of any share price movement will be the full-year results due in a few months time. This is likely to include more on the CP payment in contingent liabilities/provisions, including an assessment of what is expected to be paid (if it hasn't already been agreed).

I think this party is fully loaded already!

Mountainous - I didn't say whether he did or didn't. Just explaining how the dilution works. But given his significant holding, it would have been very expensive for him to retain his interest should he have gone for a rights issue. You see why the credit option appeals more?

I agree with Wellington - number 2 with less scary fundamentals ok with me! The guy has a cinema family legacy and possibly wants to be the first to take Cineworld to number 1.

In this particular case, trust = incompetence. Passion can be a wonderful driver, but it can also be a smokescreen. There are many rations/metrics a company should reasonably operate within to keep the shareholders' trust. Borrowing at the level Cineworld has done (particularly to facilitate what appears to be a dream to become the largest cinema chain) is bordering on irresponsible even in a non-COVID world.

Also, a rights issue only dilutes shareholders' control if they do not take up their rights. So the Greindinger could retain control if he subscribed to all his rights.

A mixture of debt and equity, as suggested by Wellington, would have been a more conservative approach. It just would have been very expensive for Greindinger to do (provided the equity raised was via a rights issue and he took up all his rights).

BC is that you?

The share price is probably too low for a rights issue, particularly as it is usually offered at a discount to the market. Best just ride it out for the time being.

If there is a leak it is unlikely to be the judge. Someone with more to gain and less to lose, as Wellington I believe has previously pointed out. That would be a very rogue judge. Highly unlikely.

Ignore him mate. He’s a wan ker.

Your measure and insightful posts will be missed! Cheers mate and all the best