RE: BoE seeks more level mortgage playing field for small banks22 Jul 2020 15:59
ZC - it is great news indeed, and exactly what is needed. There is a hint that a new methodology might be in pipeline. If so, could be this year. If not, then AIRB could be this year also. Why? 1/ because of the terms of the government loan scheme. 2/ i think Dan mentioned in Feb about this or next year.:
"There's a few upsides in this plan. One of the biggest one is I didn't put AIRB in the plan. Because I think it was inappropriate for us to put a plan together that we couldn't deliver. And I can't promise you I can deliver AIRB. I'm doing all the work ... I was at RBS and I worked in group risk when we did all the work to get RBS group approved for AIRB at a group level. So, I kind of know it. The reality is I think the work we're doing is good work. But I don't know, it's up to the regulators. It's within the regulators' gift whether they give it to us or not. So, this plan assumes that it doesn't have it in it. For the record, if we get AIRB, which we're working towards, it's worth 200 to 300 basis points on the RoTE so your RoTE goes from 8.5 to 10.5 to 11.5. It's a lot."
"... I think you previously indicated not before 2021."
"So, if we really didn't believe we were going to get AIRB, the balance sheet I laid out for you is not the balance sheet I would build. Fundamentally you're all bright enough to know that actually I would build a different balance sheet if I wasn't going to get AIRB. So, if it became very clear that we were not going to get AIRB over the next year, by the time we stand up again in July, which we might not have confidence. But by the time we stand up next year around this time again we would be talking to you about a different asset strategy, which I accept.
"So, at this point hopefully it starts to restore some of the credibility because I fully understand the reason that we're trading at 0.2 of book or slightly below 0.2 of book is not because actually the financials warrant it, it's not actually because the balance sheet warrants it, it’s because we have fundamentally lost credibility with the market and we need to let you know and be fully transparent with where we're headed, so that we can start to restore that credibility because this business actually can make a lot of money and it can make a lot of money going forward because it's broadly a fixed cost model that will eventually lever up."