Member Info for bigguboi

Governments never admit they were wrong period. They'll just quietly change their plans and justify it by saying that plans have changed maybe due to an emergency or something. Energy security is one such emergency. We all knew that 'green' energy is not sustainable and cannot power society alone yet there has been a mad dash for 'green' energy which has jeopardized fossil fuel supply and energy security. There is also a nice knowledge arbitrage because the average person has been brainwashed to think we'll be off fossil fuels in the next ten to thirty years. Thungela is one place to capitalize on this unprecedented stupidity

Here's an interesting article about the recent Namibian offshore discoveries by Total and Shell: https://www.offshoresource.com/news/oil-gas/the-emerging-orange-basin-oil-province-offshore-namibia-a-new-global-hot-spot-for-exploration

Some quotes:

"The discoveries have proved the presence of an extensive, prolific oil kitchen and Westwood analysis suggests that the Lower Cretaceous Venus play has a potential extent of up to ~58,000km², comparable to that of the Upper Cretaceous of Suriname-Guyana. A Suriname-Guyana scale oil province is certainly possible provided that the traps are present and the deepwater reservoirs are widespread and of good enough quality. All the prospective acreage looks to be already taken under fiscal terms reflective of the high-risk frontier nature of the basin prior to the discoveries. What few opportunities for new entrants exist will now carry a significant premium." (Chariot's acreage in Namibia should now be much more valuable than before, although we knew this already)

"Although no detailed information on the properties of the hydrocarbons discovered has been reported, TotalEnergies report associated gas, suggesting either the presence of a free gas cap or a high gas-oil ratio, where significant volumes of gas are dissolved within the liquid hydrocarbons. Development wells will have to avoid any gas cap that may be present. Produced gas will have to be carefully managed and may require reinjection back into the reservoirs until an economic way to produce the gas and take it to market can be established. Gas management has already proven to be a challenge in Suriname-Guyana and some of the discoveries made in Suriname are at risk of being stranded due to the high gas content and absence of a significant local market. Current understanding of the oil and gas source kitchen offshore Namibia suggests that any hydrocarbons generated are likely to have a higher gas content to the south and the east of the discoveries." (less gas to the North where Chariot's acreage is located = less risk of technical problems related to gas if a discovery is made in deep water?)

Interesting idea Sonny. I wouldn't be against Chariot taking over SDX to consolidate Moroccan o&g assets

Page 18 of that June 2019 presentation also shows the Anchois seismic attributes pretty nicely, although there is now higher quality seismic available for the company. Shows better how Anchois N is connected to the discoveries

Lots of potential value whenever Chariot makes a JV with a consortium of other companies in Namibia

https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SHELL-PLC-130945922/news/Orange-Basin-Potential-Shoots-Up-to-Billions-of-Barrels-40005600/

Great if Thungela management can snatch some coal assets at bargain prices. Coal will be needed for a long time yet

Thanks Bob that helped

Is the ~400m water depth an issue or a benefit when it comes to production? I would think it's a good thing as the high pressure could mean higher gas flows no? Sorry about the newbie question, still very new to the sector

CEO, 96% methane and no H2S or CO2 from either Anchois-1 or Anchois-2 wells confirmed

I couldn't find anything about the quality of gas at Cygnus (but tbh I didn't look very hard)

Also from https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/article/16769601/north-sea-cygnus-gas-field-enters-production

Cygnus estimated production rate plateau: 250MMscf/d from 10 wells

Anchois estimated production rate plateau: 50-70 (>90?) MMscf/d from 2-3 wells

Much higher rate of production

CEOBaib, thanks for sharing info on the Cygnus gas field. Some comparisons I found:

Cygnus:
630Bcf (18bcm) 2P reserves
1.2-2Tcf prospectivity
150km offshore
23m water depth
Jurisdiction UK

Anchois:
>800-1,000Bcf 2C resources (after CPR update)
>3Tcf prospectivity (satellites, other targets around Lixus & Rissana)
40km offshore
388m water depth
Jurisdiction Morocco

Thank you very much Jimmy, I wish they would include all of these important pieces of data in a single presentation/document. Clearly the footwall prospects to the East of Anchois 1&2 are connected to Anchois N/NE via faults, I didn't notice this before. Good eye Jimmy! Also the footwall itself is begging to be drilled just looking at the PSDM at page 23 of the Oct 2021 presentation. A, B, lower B, C and O clearly continue into the footwall and most likely contain gas

Jimmy is there a technical document of Anchois available somewhere that I could look at?

I have more careful numbers. It could take a long time to remodel everything for the CPR and post-well analysis is still ongoing anyways. H2 is a realistic target imo but I won't complain if the CPR comes quicker of course. Also I'm conservative with the 2C projection. 361Bcf came from 55m net pay, +95m net pay could well exceed 1Tcf but 800Bcf is my estimate that I believe will be the absolute minimum

CPR by H2, and at least 800Bcf 2C. imo

I guess you could call or email him and ask him personally about that Gtrzak

Oh calm down Wress. Everybody makes their own choices about buying or selling and everybody has their own analyses both technical and fundamental. Enough of this pointless witch hunt

What length do you use for RSI if you don't mind me asking?