I will also say good job for our resident chartist Nordell. Nice call and well done for standing your ground despite the abuse. I'm not a chartist myself and I don't trade much so I appreciate the technical view. On the weekly RSI would you say below 50 is a good time to add or do you think the weekly RSI will generally cool down to a more standard 30-70 range?
They're going to do QT at an immense rate starting May, and multiple 50p rate hikes this year (or so they say). It looks like the US Fed is hell bent on breaking the back of inflation, the problem is that the market will get absolutely demolished because of this.
Question is, how much of an effect will this realistically have on Chariot and European natgas prices? Access to credit could be difficult and demand for energy could begin to decrease. But I'm wondering how severe would the effects of a recession be.
Of course, I expect the Fed to reverse course if things get bad enough but when that time will be is impossible to say. I think we are entering a recession now pretty much globally but supply for certain commodities in certain places (EU) is likely to remain low for the foreseeable future in my view.
Personally I hate Larry Fink from the bottom of my heart and I don't agree with a lot of the green narrative, but I'm very bullish on Chariot's gas project and everything else is a cherry on top as far as I'm concerned. Hydrogen project is a big cherry
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/040622-africa-focused-chariot-inks-green-hydrogen-import-mou-with-port-of-rotterdam
"Chariot Transitional Power CEO Benoit Garrivier said Mauritania could become one of the cheapest green hydrogen producers in the world.
Several large-scale low-cost green hydrogen production projects are targeting costs of $1.5/kg by 2030 or earlier.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed the calculated cost of hydrogen production via alkaline electrolysis in Qatar (including capex) at $2.59/kg on April 6, among the cheapest locations globally.
That compares with Eur12.91/kg ($14.07/kg) in the Netherlands."
Fernan, 40MMscf/d is already as good as secured for the Moroccan markets. Add 10MMscf/d for good measure, and 20MMscf/d can be piped off to Spain. Conservative long term prices $10/mmBtu for 50MMscf/d and $20/mmBtu for 20MMscf/d for example (although we might get bigger production than 70MMscf/d it seems)
It will come, there is no shortage of demand in Morocco + Europe. Take into account that Morocco has to buy LNG from Middle East, have it shipped to Spain for regasification and piped south to Morocco via GME pipeline. Morocco would love to get cheaper domestic supply. And Europe is of course desperate for gas.
Here's my DD by the way, published one day before the +50m net gas pay upgrade
https://ceo.ca/@bigguboi/the-multi-tcf-natgas-play-on-the-doorstep-of-europe-you-probably-havent-heard-about
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-halts-gas-shipments-europe-critical-pipeline
"After European nations imported the most gas from Russian sources yesterday in months, scrambling to stock up on supplies as Russian President Vladimir Putin's deadline to either pay for gas in rubles (or be cut off) came and went, Russian gas giant Gazprom has officially halted all deliveries to Europe via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, a critical artery for European energy supplies.
Instead of flowing toward Germany and the EU, gas supplies on Friday and Saturday started flowing in the opposite direction, according to Gascade, the network operator."
"My guess is that the gas water contact initially identified in the O sand was in fact a phantom initial result and hence all or most of the O sand was in fact gas bearing."
Jimmy, that would actually make perfect sense!