VSA12 Nov 2018 12:46
Acquisition and Fundraise
Having recently completed a £2.5m fundraise and closed the Steeldrum acquisition, Columbus Energy Resources (CERP LN) has diversified its production base setting the company up for a strong 2019F where CERP will begin to test the full potential of the South West Peninsula. The acquisition brings immediate production along with upside potential from low cost optimisation as well as new drilling. The shares have been range bound recently, however, we believe that CERP now has a stronger platform for achieving its combined organic and acquisitive growth strategy which will deliver the expected rerating, in our view.
Q3 2018 Update; Focus on Profitable Barrels
The acquisition of Steeldrum resulted in a 33% QoQ increase in production to 735bopd alongside the continued ramp up at Goudron. Although the Goudron ramp up has been slower than expected we highlight that CERP have been prioritising adding profitable barrels which provide a stable footing for cash flow generation over the longer term rather than the short termism approach of chasing production targets at the expense of cash resources. We expect CERP to reach its 1,000bopd in 2018 and the ramp up to continue averaging 1,300bopd through 2019F.
Steeldrum Completed
Completion of the Steeldrum acquisition diversifies CERP’s production base with immediate additional production of 200-250bopd with near term upside potential, including new production from the Snowcap well in the Cory Moruga field during Q4 2018. With 2P reserves of 5.6mmbbl the implied all share transaction is valued at just U$1/bbl highlighting Leo Koot’s deal making credentials which bodes well for the planned growth strategy. Additionally, through a subsidiary of Steeldrum, which will be carved out of the transaction, means that CERP will have preferential access to two drill rigs suitable for the SWP exploration programme now intended to commence in mid-2019.
Recommendation and Target Price
We have adjusted our risked valuation in order to reflect the impact of increased share capital from the Steeldrum acquisition and the recent fundraise. Our earnings estimates are updated to reflect the acquisition and updated timeline for SWP development and we remain convinced of the considerable upside potential in the shares with production growth and drilling upcoming in the next period.
We reiterate our Buy recommendation although adjust our target price to 21.4p.
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