RE: Globalists are losing18 Sep 2025 08:30
Just seen this article..its worse than i thought!
Britain’s hiring slump has put the country on recession watch, a leading economist has warned.
Simon French, chief economist at City stockbroker Panmure Liberum, has raised concerns over a potential downturn following a drop in vacancies.
The latest official figures released on Tuesday revealed that the unemployment rate has hit 4.7pc, up from 4.1pc last August, triggering an economic alarm bell known as the Sahm rule.
This predicts that a recession is imminent when the unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points within a year.
Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Liberum, said the breach of the rule is “a clear warning signal for UK policymakers”.
He added: “This rule has been breached four times in the last two decades and on each occasion this coincided with a technical UK recession.”
Mr French said: “Whilst the 2011 breach and the 2012 ‘double dip’ recession were subsequently revised away by ONS growth revisions, this fifth breach of the rule - triggered by summer 2025 unemployment data - is a clear warning signal for UK policymakers.”
The Sahm Rule, created by American economist Claudia Sahm, is typically used by the Federal Reserve to determine if the US economy is in the earlier stages of a recession.
According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell by 10,000 on the quarter to 728,000 in the three months to August.
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Mr French said that both fiscal and monetary policymakers in Britain are aware that statistics show “a softening UK labour market and the heightened risk of damaging passthrough to the economic cycle”.
His comments come as official figures released today showed that the rate of inflation was stuck at a 19-month high in August.
The consumer prices index (CPI) rose by 3.8pc last month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), staying at the highest level since January 2024.
Monica George Michail, an economist at the National Institute of Economic Research, said the figures “confirm inflation remains entrenched,” while Paul Dales of Capital Economics called the data “troubling”.
The figure is well above the Bank of England’s 2pc target and cemented market expectations that policymakers will not be able to cut interest rates again this year.
Rises in food and drink prices accelerated for the fifth month in a row to 5.1pc in August, driven by items like vegetables, mi
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