RE: What are the risks?14 Nov 2025 19:23
No rewards unless there are risks.
1. JORC & DFS Delivery Risk
Timelines slip across the sector. Consultants run late, labs take longer, and classification reviews can push dates a few weeks.
Impact: Delays can frustrate the market but don’t change the underlying asset.
2. NPV Sensitivity to Assumptions
The valuation hinges on graphite pricing, opex, discount rate, capex, and downstream assumptions. A weaker graphite price deck or higher capex would reduce NPV, even with strong geology.
Impact: NPV outcomes can shift materially on input changes.
3. Funding & Strategic Partnering
The project will require significant financing and/or a strategic partner. Discussions look mature, but until binding terms are released, there’s execution and timing risk.
Impact: Market often sells uncertainty; share price can drift while financing is negotiated.
4. Offtake/Market Conditions
Natural flake graphite markets remain volatile. While downstream purified product improves economics, offtake agreements still matter.
Impact: Strength or weakness in EV/battery markets affects sentiment and funding appetite.
5. Execution: Building the Project
Moving from PFS → DFS → construction is where many juniors fail. Logistics, procurement, contractor selection, and cost control all matter.
Impact: Cost overruns or schedule slips reduce project economics.
6. Political & Regulatory Landscape
Uganda is stable, but permitting, taxation, and export policy environments can evolve.
Impact: Policy changes could add delays or cost.
7. Liquidity & Market Behaviour
The free float is high and dominated by traders. Even good news can be sold into if sentiment is weak.
Impact: Short-term volatility unrelated to fundamentals.
8. Sale Process Isn’t Guaranteed
Management has indicated a clear intention to seek a sale post-DFS, but:
• Timing may stretch
• Offers may not reflect full NPV
• Tier-1 buyers may wait for market stabilisation
Impact: A sale is highly likely in my view, but not on a set timeline.