Member Info for Bickmaster84

Johnny

Once Suzhou acquire 30% of the voting rights (i.e. ordinary shares) they are deemed to have 'control'. Under the Takeover Code, if Suzhou were to secure “control” of PREM it must make a cash offer to all shareholders offering to acquire their shares at the highest price paid in the last 12 months. I understand this would be ~0.52p.

Bickmaster

Redandy

Prior to the Suzhou deal I was confident of getting 0.6p - 0.8p per share. Post the Suzhou deal I'll be happy to get out in the 0.40p region which will still give a very good return. I've previously stated my view on here that long term deals with Chinese companies carry a lot of risk. This is exacerbated by the location and tips the risk profile past where I am comfortable with.

Bickmaster

Redandy

Yes, I would have thought the TR1 would be a formality unless of course Suzhou have some strategic reason for holding off. I imagine the only downside for them would be a slap on the wrist from the regulator.

Would I be surprised if they have acquired a few % already and not TR1'd it. Not at all.

Plus the pre-emption agreement would give them a nice 6 month window to go ahead and buy up as much of the remaining shares in the market they want.

They have bought 13% for £12m. No reason they couldn't pick up another 37% for ~£40-50m in the next 6 months. So, all in all, they could pick up the controlling interest in PREM for about £60m. This would have been much more difficult if PREM had raised funds with a combination of placings and debt which was my strong preference. It also underpins why my strategy to get Zulu DFSd up and 100% sold was the better option for shareholders, it was lower risk whilst also having a better payoff.

Sold another 3m earlier this week so only have 7m left here now.

Bickmaster

RedAndy

The 3 RNS were for

1. Receipt of the outstanding amount of the £12 - done.
2. Appointment of Suzhou board member - done.
3. TR1 - outstanding surprisingly.

Bickmaster

GR now has his £££ to plod along at Zulu and to waste a few £m at each of RHA and MNH. And no doubt he will start looking at new assets also, which is exactly what isn't needed when the focus needs to be on Zulu.
Now we enter the doldrums where there will be little activity until the back end of 2022 (note the Suzhou 180 day pre-emption period) where the SP will linger in the low to mid 0.30s range and could well drop into the 0.20s.

Acker, I'd give about 33/1 on your 1p in April predictions.

Bickmaster

Degrasse,

It’s hardly dangerous. The RNS stated 15 business days from the 7th March. So completion should be today. So RNS today or tomorrow morning as worst case scenario.

I’d deem the majority of what you post here and on Twitter as being much more dangerous.

Bickmaster

Edgy

He did say that but he didnt give an initial figure so we have no idea what to base a reduced requirement on. We also need to remember it was GR who said this so there is a high degree of probability it is wrong.

Should have a RNS by close of play today stating £10.8 received 3B new shares issued and new board member appointed. If we don't get that then something has gone wrong with the Suzhou deal.

Bickmaster

Bickmaster

Redandy

I don’t think Suzhou will find it very easy to call the shots with a 13% holding. Also, they will only have one on the board so GR and his cronies will retain their control there also. There must be a reason why results are so slow. Perhaps GR was out of cash before he got the £1.2m from the Chinese so testing was stopped. It would also explain why he rushed into a poor deal. Should have had a placing imo.

Bickmaster.

Shareholder

Yes, 6000m drilled but very little tested.

LIBS doesn’t work and wouldn’t have been good enough for DFS anyway.

Haven’t had a result in a month.

Bickmaster

“Looking like DFS for Q3 2022”.

Not a hope in hell we will have DFS in Q3 2022. Over a year since EPO and we have results for about 1000m of drilling. DFS will need 10000m minimum and is likely to need more than that.

Q3 2023 perhaps.

Bickmaster

We are over one year on from receiving the EPO and by my recollection we have approximately 1000m of results. Doesn't bode well for getting the DFS finalised even by early to mid 2023 which was my estimate, I'd imagine late 2023 is now much more likely. Haven't had confirmation the additional drilling rigs are operational yet. Over a month since the last result. Typical GR, plenty of news flow when cash needed and nothing when he has a few dollars to spend.

A return to the 0.20s is on the cards if he doesn't get his act together and I don't believe drilling results will make any material difference to SP given how much of the DFS remains to be completed.

All in all, a 5h1t5how.

Bickmaster

Acker,

Manganese prices are still not substantially above the levels at which other miners (rather than exploration companies) we not able to turn a profit at MNH.

Bickmaster

Watcher,

Nope, not suggesting that. Though I do believe a long term play on Zulu is the highest risk for shareholders, especially with a Chinese partner. I believe that putting an exit strategy in place for Zulu would be the commercially sensible option. Prove it up to 70Mt and sell if off in full. Assuming it would sell for $500m, that would provide receipts of £304m (USD/GBP = 0.76 and CGT at 20%). Keep £24m in the coffers for Zulu2 in the EPO area, leaving £280m to be distributed to shareholders which equates to a dividend of 1.25p per share which is ~4x current price with relatively low commercial/delivery risk.

Obviously 4x current SP isn't enough for many on here so there will be different views which are more than welcome. However, I would be more than happy with a low risk 1.25p per share. I have sold 10m of my holding over the past 2-3 weeks so now have 10m left and would be more than happy with a dividend of £125,000 whilst still holding on for Zulu2.

Long term relationships with the Chinese don't end well. Especially in jurisdictions like Zimbabwe. And especially with someone like George in charge.

Bickmaster

Worth a read.

https://miningzimbabwe.com/zim-lithium-mines-being-sold-for-a-song/

I still think GR has got the commercial strategy entirely wrong on Zulu.

Bickmaster

Good stuff Acker,

God to see someone Is winning. Down about 25000 prem shares for the day. Tomorrow’s another day.

Bickmaster

Acker,

Garlic Warrior and Run Wild Fred double for the last 2 races? I’m on it anyway.

Any winners so far?

Bickmaster

Welshy

Less of that deramping!!

By my calcs, to get to a SP of 10p PREM will need to have a market cap in excess of Pilbara Minerals. Surely that is nailed on here. Once we pass the resistance level at 0.4p then it is an easy run all the way up to 10p.

Bickmaster

Assuming PREM was a 50% partner, a 10p value per share would require PREM to have a marked cap 20% above that of Pilbara.

Snowking

I am not splitting hairs. You said the DFS was over half way complete and it clearly is not. You then stated 'if we finish drilling in September then i think we are more than half way through'. But you also said PREM 'will be completing DFS before the year end and likely end of Q3', which is odd as GR said in his interview that the programme has slipped. So it is fairly clear the issue here is you posting 3 different accounts of progress in the space of 20 mins which contradict each other massively.

Half way would mean 50% complete in my book.

So far PREM has drilled about 6000m out of 15000m and has assay results for approximately 1000m out of 15000m. They also need to carry out the modelling of the resource and write up the DFS report. There is also the flowsheet work.

I would estimate PREM is somewhere between 20% and 25% complete.

The other way to look at this is in terms of money spent. PREM has spent about £2.5m on the DFS to date and needs to spend about another £7.5m- which funnily enough would equate to about 25% complete.

Bickmaster

Profitbags

I share your concerns regarding the 3b shares and GR having cash to waste on other assets.

With regards to your final comment, a pre-emption clause as part of an agreement such as this is quite common. It would actually usually form a separate agreement between the parties - a pre-emption agreement. I mentioned it quite a few times over the past month that PREM wouldn't get significant investment without the investor securing pre-emptive rights. In practice what it means is that if any other parties approach PREM with an offer, PREM cannot accept that offer without first offering the same to Suzhou. The market knowing the pre-emption is in place means they wont waste their time on making any offers for the next 6 months. The good thing for PREM is the pre-emption is only for 6 months. I have experience of dealing with the disposal of a large asset where there was a pre-emption from the late 1980s recently which was still enforceable by the benefactor. We had to declare the pre-emption to the market and this significantly stifled the competition for the asset, indeed a number of the interested parties dropped out of the process.