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The accounts made reference to a number of going concern cash flow points which I reckon were not resolved before they announced the wish to divided - they could just be ignoring investors, prepping to screw us over or trying to sort these out. Like the social development fund - paying a dividend and not this has to look a little dodgy
So how do we value casp?
Proven oil in place ?
Production?
Capacity?
Proven and unproven Oil in place?
It seems to me that the only things that will move the share price are an increase in reserves in the shallows - not going to happen as they are just deducting production from the oil in place assumption, the price they get for their oil increases if the kebco piece is resolved, they get a deep to flow increasing to oil reserves of the 900mboe unproven, smaller extentent - a license is granted for 3abest resulting in provision reversal. 10p is over £200m market cap - I just don’t see it based on oil in place without the deeps.
KK - unfortunately Clive is just an accountant who reports the numbers. I imagine he wouldnt understand the mechanics of oil drilling if it was acted out with puppets. My first hope is there is some development regarding shifting the oil as non-urals soon. I may have a look on chevrons site to see if they have any details.
We will have to see how that plays out but to me higher production realises the asset quicker. Valuations will have a high discount rate due to all the risks at play so increasing production adds to value immediately. The question I have for Clive is when will we see KEBCO designation on our oil. We are paid and priced 2months after delivery. KEBCO became a loosely reported thing start of June so if our local international traders did as was reported it could be mid august that an improved rate is received?
The problem at play at the moment is that the share price is pegged only to the shallows production as a messily capacity and attainment. A dividend will make no difference to this other than to draw cash to the bigger holders
So unless I am mistaken we have resources of the following. BNG risked resources 202m barrels. South telemedicine most likely contingent resources 13m barrels and BNG shallow structures of P1 15.1m barrels.
The question is what are they up to. We are due news on several fronts. Things can change in a moment with casp. You have to read between the spaces between the spaces of the lines. Maybe awaiting the change with the kazak oil designation
I have just been going through the accounts in a bit more detail. $23.7m in oil and gas sales at $18.8m GP. The proven oil and gas assets were only received a charge of $1.3m in the year with a closing value of $42m. Some BNG has transferred to the cost pool of $28.3m in 2020 meaning circa $14m relating to non BNG. At the same ratio for ease that is circa $250m topline based on the 2021 fin year for the shallows or around £150m gross profit which will be mostly at the pre-Russian market rate.
Consider if BNG asset is good - which it must be to not be impaired using the current urals discount and high discount rates and you are talking about an $800m revenue potential at least
Uncertain - thanks but I think that is my point. Wells have been flat but more coming on with different methods for higher output but how hard will the be able to push output realistically? I’d like to know what they expect output to be versus capacity as that is the topline.