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Yes the asset value is now way over £100 a share as I suspected and despite the high nominal value of the stock it is still a terrific bargain on an asset value basis. The book value is retained in the accounts as the lower of cost and net realisable value for tax purposes but for the first time we know this is a massive understatement of the actual asset value.
After a quiet period following div. payment,buyers are returning. Sellers will be few in run up to statement on 27th when. after many years of wondering, those of us long in this stock finally get to know the extent of the assets we are sitting on as the revaluation of trading properties is announced,together with likely stellar interim figures. Anybody selling would have to be desperate for cash whilst opportunistic bargain hunters may stand to make a packet.
Once again Hargreaves has confounded the doubters with a suberb set of results in difficult circumstances . Profits and dividend up, borrowings down Coal may not be flavour of the month but it still has a role and Hargreaves is by far the dominant player
Today's interim statement confirms our best expectations of a stunning half year in prospect. When update of asset value is revealed in November with half year figures,£100 a share may well look cheap!
Yesterday's update was broadly positive with (potentially) increased profits flagged up. The market perversely chose to interpret the update in a negative way and sellers moved in, one quite large. A bottom appears to have been reached however and a stock arguably at the sweet spot of a building recovery is looking badly oversold. Bold steps to retrench and reorganise during the downturn should lead to operational gearing to the upside , quite possibly leaving the sellers feeling rather foolish when the dust settles.
The bizarre decision to reduce and delay payment of final div. is confusing market and will no doubt be explained at AGM which I look forward to. THAT APART THESE RESULTS ARE TRULY STUNNING-EPS IS OVER £9 MAKING THE P/E A SHADE OVER 5- THIS FOR A CLASS ACT UNDERPINNED BY DESIRABLE PROPERTIES VALUED AT WAY OVER SHARE PRICE-I have added to my alredy full boots!
Well done-Daejan won't disappoint either-I'm looking forward to AGM there to catch up on progress. These two form around 30% of my portfolio and have done for over 20 years. They are both very well run with low borrowings and massive Board holdings - hence incentive. Despite rise both are reasonably priced on fabulous property assets largely in southeast well below capitalised value. Enjoy the sun and keep the faith!
It comes down to believing in the honesty and credibility of management when they say this is a temporary blip. I have personal knowledge of some of management and can vouch for honesty. Given this is , and that a stock is paying good dividends with no borrowings in a growth area , this could be a tremendous entry point.
Even today in D.T. I read that subsidies to solar farms are being reduced relative to onshore wind and given infi was priced at bottom of range at 260p and fossil fuels are shortly to be taxed to oblivion something is wrong here. We are either sitting on a steal at these levels or the money is talking and we're missing a major fly in the ointment-it's one or tother.
I note that Daejan gets two positive mentions in the May edition of a mainstream financial publication. The point is made that assets of £1.2 billion are valued at under £800 million-all in desirable real estate . Given that the company has grown considerably but is still valued below 2007 levels we could be in for interesting times when the results are out in a month or so when people begin to take note.
The liklihood is we are at the darkest hour in terms of strike. FORTUNATELY FOR AQP THE CURRENCY HAS BEEN HAMMERED AND WHEN STRIKE ENDS, AS IT WILL, PAY WILL BE IN RANDS BUT PRICE OF PLATINUM IS IN US DOLLARS SO OPERATION SHOULD BE POTENTIALLY PROFITABLE AS PRICE OF PLATINUM RISES. MASSIVE PURCHASE TODAY IS POSITIVE.
Following a quiet period this share price is powering up ahead of forthcoming results which could well be stellar. This is a classic case of carefully fledged chickens coming home to roost. I reckon asset value is probably well over £100 a share and decent dividend well covered and borrowings carefully controlled. Not a lot more you could ask for!
THESE SHARES SEEM TO BE SET AT A LEVEL ASSUMING WIND POWER ARMAGEDDON. YESTERDAY'S STATEMENT IMPLIED THAT SUBSIDIES FOR EXISTING ONSHORE WINDFARMS WILL BE HONOURED EVEN IF THE TORIES GET BACK IN AND FLOTATION PRICE WAS SEEN AS ROCK BOTTOM AT 260P IN VIEW OF POTENTIAL YIELD. WHAT HAS CHANGED?
These prices are at a capitulation level for a company which has a good management record and people speak highly of. The considerable resources they control are not going away and when the dust finally settles on the industrial unrest, will be valued more sensibly.
The fact that BHP, the world's premier coal producer is wanting to pull out ot S.Africa , like Anglo,Randgold and others is much less to do with coal than political and workforce issues. Coal is still the only meaningful show in town for power in South Africa but why work under a corrupt and business unfriendly regime when better options are available. As I have said, BHP is budgeting for increased production over the' next decades'.'Listening too much to the noise of the market can obscure one from the underline realities on the ground..
Any suggestion that South Africa can develop any meaningful energy source other than coal sourced in the foreseeable future is simply not credible. Furthermore BHP the Australian mega coal producer stated yesterday that it expects to increase production 'over the next decades'. We really need to keep this debate real rather than slanted with a futuristic slant. Electric cars for example may be the future but not moneymakers yet!
SSE announced today a scaling back of plans to build offshore windfarms as it does not have'sufficient confidence of the viability of the wider offshore wind sector. This comes on top of a recent cancellation of a large project in the North Sea by Centrica. Meanwhile I read that the Humber ports alone imported 8-9 million tons of coal this year. I contribute this in the interests of a balanced debate!