Member Info for BettingOnButler

BlueBaron, I think you're the one who needs to read the terms more carefully.

Although Alumni Capital is "required to subscribe for two further instalments of Convertible Loan Notes", that doesn't mean Sunda Energy is required to draw them down.

This is the relevant bit you've missed:

"The Company also has the option to cancel either or both of the two further instalments of Convertible Loan Notes to the extent that they have not been subscribed for. In the event of such cancellation, the Company is required to pay a fee equal to 5 per cent. of the difference between the maximum drawdown amount of the respective instalment and the amount that has been drawn down."

I just wish I had more dry powder to deploy. If you believe this acquisition is going to go ahead, as I do, this is an incredible entry point.

I'm sleeping very easily being a Sunda shareholder atm, especially so as I watch Brent around the $110 level. That's directly paying for the acquisition we're now undertaking.

Q: Can you give us any update on the PSC extension request? Is Sunda feeling confident that the extension will be granted?

A: The extension request was made a month or two back, I forget the exact date. A couple of questions, as is usual. We await for it to come through.

We have been through the process of requesting extensions in the past, for a variety of reasons at various stages in the project. We have a very good, open relationship with the government. I don’t see any material risks around it, but obviously these things are always at the discretion of the government, so we will await the outcome of their deliberations. But I am confident, yes.

Q: If Sunda Energy and Finder Energy do end up sharing a drill rig, which company is set to drill first as part of that agreement?

A: I believe we will sort this out and fairly quickly to the ‘if’ part of that question.

So what we’ve basically agreed is that we will work out the best, most practical way of doing it in terms of who is ready etc. I think given the simplicity of our project, given the amount of preparations we’ve already conducted with the environmental permits in place and various things like that, the expectation is that there’s a high likelihood that we’ll come first, but we haven’t kind of signed off on the order, that’s not something that’s in the agreement.

The agreement is effectively to work together, as collaboratively as possible, to make sure that a rig comes and to explore all possible costs and logistical, practical synergies that we can for the effective execution of our respective drilling campaigns.

Thought I'd transcribe a few choices bits from the presentation, starting with this question about the increased oil revenues of Matahio NZ covering the remainder of the acquisition.

Q: Can you give us any insight into the oil revenues generated by Matahio NZ since the beginning of the year, given the state of the oil market at present and what this might mean for the next stage of the acquisition? To put it more bluntly, are those increased oil revenues now set to make up the majority of the next payment?

A: Our timing has been fortunate in that we negotiated when we were expecting lower prices and obviously we negotiated on a business and an acquisition proposition that we believed was commercial. So as you're pointing out, prices have ended up being significantly higher for this period and we expect them to be through the period of the considerations that I was outlining.

The way the revenues work for that business is that there are liftings every two months. Now liftings are effectively points of sale. So every day those trucks are delivering the crude, but every couple of months on selected dates, they are effectively transferred, sold and the revenues are received. One of those took place in February, there’ll be another one very soon. The pricing is based on the real price at the moment, which is kind of linked to where we are on the Brent price.

To your question, the impact of the additional revenues is that because the effective date of the transaction is the 1st January, these are revenues that do accrue to Sunda. It does mean that we are in a better financial position for the later payments, as you’re suggesting and I think that payments that are due through this year are very likely to be entirely covered from those high revenues in that chart that I was showing.

I can’t give you precise numbers in terms of what revenues are expected at the moment; it would be inappropriate to give precise numbers at the moment. But we are in a very fortunate position where significant revenues are coming in, significantly greater than what we were modelling on completing the translation. So that’s good news.

Ah great! Not sure why it took so long to go live, but looking forward to rewatching the presentation again later on today. There are some real nuggets of valuable info in the Q&A section in particular.

It hasn't been made available on demand so far, I've emailed the site's contact address to see if it will be going up later.

It stays within MZ for the time being until the moment the acquisition is approved by the New Zealand government and control is then transferred to Sunda. We’re expecting this to happen around August.

What's that quote from Buffet?

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"

Others are welcome to disagree, but this setup feels extremely strong from my POV. The timing of this NZ acquisition, with oil prices set to stay very high throughout the rest of the year, is going to prove the making of Sunda. To be able to secure an oil producing asset right now, which will pay for itself and then some.... my conviction is at all time high.

Will post a link to the presentation once it's available on demand, hopefully later today

Some very encouraging answers so far! There's a few I want to transcribe and post here after the presentation, especially on oil revenues and who will likely drill first in an arrangement between Sunda/Finder!

This simply isn’t true. I’d recommend tuning into the investment presentation in a few minutes and hear how Andy Butler talks about the current oil prices.

Another roughly 800 barrels of oil produced today at record prices! Looking forward to today’s presentation. This is going to be a hell of year for Sunda, in my opinion.

The price to watch this morning may be Brent! This latest surge will continue to have a massive effect on the way in which Sunda is able to pay for this acquisition and then Chuditch down the line as well.

I particularly liked this line regarding the new acquisition in light of the current oil prices:

"Based on our average price forecast for Brent in 2026 of US$95/barrel and assuming oil production of 1,000 b/d MNZ revenues in 2026 would be c. US$35m. If we allow US$50/barrel for operating costs, including G&A, overriding royalties, and fob-related costs, the EBITDA margin would be US$17m or 49%."

Hot damn.

Glad to hear they’re moving quickly! Only good news for our joint rig efforts.

I think your previous comment about this filthy was overstated, I’m guessing by AI? The actual quote from the original article is just “Matahio also has commercial levers that allow us to hedge or lock in higher oil prices before they drop.” There is no way Matahio and therefore Sunda aren’t benefiting tremendously from the sky high oil prices. Apologies if I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying here.

If you look at Sunda’s recent April 2026 Company Presentation, for example, it clearly states under Acquisition Key Points: “current prices benefit Sunda”.

Likewise, even in Matahio’s statement when the SPA was signed it says that both sides are set to benefit from the higher prices, referring to the bonus payment they’ll receive from Sunda. But as we know from the agreement itself, Sunda has stated any oil sales over $68 per barrel is purely a benefit to Sunda.

Is that a promise, Scam? ;)

Reggie: this isn’t going to happen! From what we’ve heard so far, Sunda is likely to enter into a similar farmout deal with Timor GAP as last time, leaving Sunda with 30% and Timor GAP with 70. Although this time around it sounds like TGAP will be handling some of the upfront costs. So then it’s about whether or not we can maintain the 30% without significant dilution, with the NZ assets set to come into play here.

But that’s still a world away from the situation we almost found ourselves in last year when we were relying entirely on CLNs to pay our way.

I’ve already submitted three questions myself! Very glad to see this on the schedule.