RE: Where from here?1 May 2025 10:12
I recently sold my substantial (for me) holding at £114 with the plan to buy back lower within the next few weeks. I'm now doubting whether I'll be able to do that.
The growth in Next's international markets looks very promising and maybe there is some anticipation of this continuing at pace being priced in.
Given the current share price I think that the equivalent rate of return is below the threshold at which Next executes buybacks. I need to dig out the calculation to confirm this. If that is the case and Next has surplus cash then there should be some special dividends.
I do intend to buy back; ideally in a dip. I will continue to hold for the very long term as I see Next becoming more of a global fashion brand. I will draw on them in my retirement to supplement other pensions.
Barring macroeconomic shocks, wars, black swan events, etc. I'd be surprised if they haven't hit £150 in the next couple of years.
Another risk is Simon Wolfson. Not that long ago it seemed that he had one eye on politics but I think that moment has passed. I'd be surprised if he wasn't still at the helm at 70 or whenever he installs one of his offspring in that position.