Member Info for Berlioz

Down again on the ASX at open. I can't recall a "dead cert" that all the analysts are pumping take such a sustained beatdown (for such a relatively minor infraction as a not particularly onerous capital raise) for quite a while. I'm scratching my head looking for alternative explanations and all I can think of is fears over what the Malawian government might do in terms of a new mining code or an assumption that the raise might mean pay day is further away. Any further theories?

Everyone watching their gains evaporate, sick as a parrot... except Rio, they must be over the moon. I wonder if this expedites them making a move?

Are these falls really just as a result of the recent dilution or is something else at play? Seems extreme to give up 6 months of gains, even given the tariffs hysteria. I hope the Malawian government isn't going to pull some sillyness we don't know about yet

Another ASX significant fall on high volume. Did I miss some news or just a post raise hangover? I do see a lot of ASX mining stocks down today.

Trading halted on the ASX for a capital raise. I wasn't expecting that tbh

11 trades, all of them buys but down 7.61%... what??

Thank you for your considered responses. oogleflugal and jam2morrow. In particular, I find the timing of the insider sales very interesting. My heart truly bleeds for them, as they could have doubled their income had they not sold right at the bottom, just at the curious but totally by chance, entirely coincidental, crossover between one big seller ending and one big buyer starting. Indeed the insiders, no doubt totally inadvertently, caused lots of long suffering retail holders to throw in the towel, as retail logically assumed that insiders selling at the bottom was a sign of further woe to come, given that positive news was not, perplexingly, instigating a turnaround. So soon after the "incentive" share issuance, this may have seemed the final straw for many, but was simply an unfortunate and unrelated event. The market is indeed full of incredible coincidences. The company's management indeed remains exemplary, and none of this casts any doubt on their duty and commitment to their loyal retail shareholders. I'm sure all of these events are down to luck, good and bad. I hope through careful observation my knack for attracting luck will continue to improve. I welcome further reflections, analysis and criticisms of my observations. Again, my thoughts may well, and probably are, entirely wrong, perhaps even naive and rooted in misreadings of events.

Let me try to clarify my understanding of the turnaround, for future reference, so please correct me if I have recalled or understood anything incorrectly.

A major seller, allied to execution missteps, was the main reason the share price tanked over months. We didn't know when they would finish selling. The company recently informs us that it has issed a significant number of shares for "incentives". Retail is unhappy at the timing, given the sp. The sp reachedls a new low and then we are informed that two insiders sold. This freaks out retail, a significant number of whom capitulate at the bottom. An RNS informs us that a well known new ii has taken a big position, amazingly timed just as the major seller seems to have finished and retail had lost confidence and capitulated. The sp then takes off and doubles. Is this correct? I may well, nay I presume, that I have this totally wrong so please correct me. I am trying to learn for future.

Isn't there still the seller's pattern of 500 000 share sales there today?

Do my eyes deceive me or did 2 £1 million buys go through yesterday? Just after retail ran for the exits after the slightly insane, given the circumstances of a cratered sp and decimated sentiment, director sales? Please correct me if I have misunderstood.

Any idea why today in particular has been chosen for such a big sell off? Capitulation? Odd given the SQM news, which one would have assumed might put a bottom on it.

I'll answer my own question... I can see a top up buy I made today has gone through as a sell...

Quite a few sells in today's trades. Why would anyone be selling now, on the cusp of either being acquired or going into production, or at the very least an updated DFS? Seems odd as one would expect the sp to keep rising as any of these three approaches.

Lots of excitement about the new property

https://youtu.be/LXItr_-lFAw?si=U1BTJAq5niIy_bdh

Great find, thanks, confirms the quality of the deposit again. Everything set up very nicely, as long as the government doesn't do anything silly.

Given Sovereign's enviable position I'm a bit confused by the lack of ... well anything. Not much discussion, trades. Is this simply the wait and see if Rio or another major makes a move phase? Or the company just continues demonstrating the economics?

14% spread?? Who is going to buy that?

It is amusing that an article can have that effect, if that is the reason. A bit of good publicity and sentiment transforms. Having said that, people who write articles like being right and perhaps the value disconnect has become just too obvious, so ATM is a safe bet to write about. ie it is all part of a general perception change from loser to potential winner.

Is it my imagination or have there been some unusually large "unknown" share transactions in the last couple of days, which I presume must have mostly been buys given the share price rise?

Anthony hasn't covered himself in glory with operations over the last year or so and profitability getting pushed out has maybe impacted as much as the big seller but hopefully the next update will put that behind him. Credit where credit is due, the SQM deal was good and under normal circumstances would have been a catalyst. If he can right the ship in time for the next tin price run up this could rerate very quickly. Despite the carnage the last few months has wrought on it, I added to my position today btw.

Why has the volume the last couple of days gone through the roof? Has word got out that the seller has finished? Was very oversold on the rsi end of Jan, not now obviously, mac d crossing positively to indicate an uptrend. Might the coast now be clear from the seller?

Annoyingly, still some big sells today. Not clear the coast is clear quite yet. I'll be adding when it is.