Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Those saying the market is pricing in the business booming are misguided.
The market cap of this company is circa £260m and they’ve only just raised £150m of cash. So it’s only pricing the business at £110m and that’s split between the profitable insurance business and the current cruise business which right now is a liability to be fair, however it has new ships and great potential next year.
Let’s bear in mind that underlying operating profit was circa £190m per year until 2019 when they started to write down the goodwill in the travel business, which is just a balance sheet adjustment and not actually a cash impact.
Most companies are valued on a forward PE basis and currently let’s assume a 10x PE multiple that’s saying that the market currently forecasts average profits of £11m on the current £110m valuation of the business (excluding the cash it’s just raised). If you think that’s crazy then, that’s your opinion, but I would say a fair PE ratio after a return to profit in 2021 or 2022 would be 10x of £100-190m, meaning £1-1.9bn valuation. Compared to the current total of £260m.
The reason it isn’t achieving that is the current uncertainty, but I hope that outlines how this isn’t priced crazily. It’s just not as cheap as it was when it was in the bargain basement corner.
This goes ex-div (11.3p final divi) on 4 August 2016, so in a normal market you'd expect to see a steady rise in the lead up to this date, however anything goes in this market. One thing is for certain, I'm holding out for the divi, even if this does bounce around a bit in the meantime. I reckon there's a fair bit of good news to come for this in terms of sales stats, I'm expecting the British cycling team to do well at the Olympics in August which should provide a boost to cycle sales, even if import costs inflate slightly due to forex.
Looks like my prediction re top of trading range was right, made a tidy profit from my short but closed now. However, calling the bottom with all the fear mongering in the remain campaign will be tricky. My guessing is that this will bottom out at about 1900 later this week.
ValueMB, I agree that this isn't alone in its recent rally, but it has gone up already from £19 to £21.50 in less than a month, which is circa 13% and I just feel a retrace is due. Poor data WILL come for the calendar quarter that we're sitting in, i.e. Apr-Jun. Reason being; the new stamp duty which made any landlords considering a purchase, buy in the first quarter and therefore there won't be any landlords left in the market this quarter (or very few). An example article is this BBC news one from today which shows a year on year decline in sales for April of 14.5%: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36367339 With regards to the FTSE350 comparison, I won't pretend I have any idea what way the whole market will go, but I agree the referendum is likely to have a big impact on housebuilders, one way or another. My sell opinion is a short term view based on TA and pattern trading only, plus the fact that the next divi isn't for 10 months. Mid to long term I think this is a buy, I just think this is the wrong price to buy in at. My target purchase price is sub £20, ideally £19 (unless fundamentals change).
This looks like it's due a big sell off soon as it is reaching the top of it's consistent trading cycle and poor data is expected to come through in the coming months following a stagnation in the property market (post 1 April 16). Not sure who is still buying at the current price. I suspect in the next month or two we will see £19 again. What do others think?
Thanks, interesting to see how much activity around potential offers there are, but it sounds like even if a decent offer does come in, Gilber will look to turn it down due to benefits of being independent. Not sure how much of say he'll have the if there's a strong offer on the table.
Anyone got any idea why this is currently up over 5%? Not that I'm complaining, as I'm long, just curious.
Anyone know why this keeps tanking despite whether the market goes up or down?
It will be interesting to see what they do, I reckon the market has priced in a 50% cut and to be honest I'd be concerned if they didn't cut it, as they need to preserve cash in a depressed commodity market. If the cut is 50% I would expect a decent jump as it would eliminate uncertainty. At the moment people are bearish on this, but it will come good in the long term, it's just a matter of how long it'll take and how much the dam is going to cost us.
Lack of market liquidity, hence not enough shares to sell
Thats nice, it is probably someone with inside info if they are putting that much money at stake so close to results which are due after hours today supposedly.(don't know if they will though, heard so many dates thrown around)
Yep they certainly do thats why even when the other day sells outweighed buys the price still went up, they are desperate. Lets just hope everyone keeps holding and these will keep doing there thing.
I tell you what, you gotta love a share which rises like this and noone sells. The mm's have so few shares here that tiny volumes such as 44,000 shares pushes the price up nearly 4%. Should see a rise tomorrow from people not wanting to miss out on results and then a small rise on results day as the results have already been priced in. Unless of course the results are phenomenal then the sky is the limit. I expect a small profits or breakeven, announced with a trading update of the future prospects showing that there will be vast profits in next years account. Price target next week of 62p, 6 months 90p and 1 year £1.40 on results.
Why do you think that when the results are expected to be good?
You could get level 2 if you do enough trading as it cost £20/month but is woth it. But apart from that you are at the mercy of the market and institutions, i wouldn't worry though as this is one of the best mid term (1 year) holds around, and if you can stick with it i bet you won't regret just look at the fundamentals and then forget intraday movements. GL
I'm sorry but that is completely incorrect and merely wild speculation, there is a larger chance that Morgan Stanley are part of the 60m shorted shares out there and have merely sold 1.17% (500,000shares) of their main holding to destabalise the share in order to buy back the shares which they have shorted. If i happen to be wrong and they do sell more or their holding they have to release an RNS at every percentage point crossed ie 13,12,11 etc. Do the maths MS bought most of their shares at 70p+ so why would they sell their holding for sub 17p.
I reckon it will hold this price until end of play so mid SP of 46p, rank-90 it depends on the results if they are released this week and are good this will easily reach 60p.
Unitech Corporate Parks Plc (AIM: UCP), a leading investment company focusing on commercial real estate in India, announces that on 8 May 2009 it received notification that Nectrus Limited, the Company's Investment Manager, in the course of the week since last the announcement has acquired a further 89,911 ordinary shares of 0.01p each in the capital of the Company ('Ordinary Shares') representing 0.025% of the issued share capital of the Company at a price of 17p per share. Following this transaction, Nectrus holds 144,911 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.040% of the issued share capital of the Company. (Copied from iii.co.uk) This purchase is further to the changes to the Investment Management Agreement announced to the market on 19 February 2009.
IM00B1HWL911 UNITECH CORP ORD1P 67081818.18. This number is the number of shares that have been on loan thus the number of shares shorted which need to be closed soon. So locked-in im with you on this one as their is likely to be a large squeeze like what happened with VW when porsche made a hostile takeover.
https://www.euroclear.com/site/public/EUI/!ut/p/c1/hY_dboJAEIWfxQdoZgRc8JIALiCy0EVAbggxBFFYJ6T27-mrd00T6ZzLL985GajgHtW8913z1l9VM0AJFavZKpWR6WuIr4GLWshEIhJfNzy888Mvznd8hVqsixBdR-c78x-7eOzN-w-OT87GP76VRxZqmZ2sM-HiNtfn-z1t1ncEg9i_ji3IVsEBKvPpL3uEDEo0anlGSqJyE0aewu-jNX0de1oGa8_4iHNyZEHuNG62-5GGlNNLcwmpvdDt5A8nmdNtUgWlk905S1Z_1kBjiX1wNni3WPwASuZk1Q!!/dl2/d1/L0lDU0dZb0tVUUEhIS9JTlNBQ0l3a0FnZ2lRQ0FLYW03RUFnbyEvWUE0NTBzbHl0dyEhLzdfNjVRU0w3SDIwMFJJRDAySjZPUE9QSDM0VTAvbGFzdC9tb250aGx5/