Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LV*0/futures-prices?viewName=main
It looks like the tide is turning
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVX21/overview
November Futures -
Richards Bay at $138.50s up 14.94%
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVX21/overview
Newcastle at $157.50s up 11.78%
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQX21/overview
Rotterdam at $149.50s up 6.98%
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LUX21/overview
Nice recovery! Up to $130
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVX21/overview
Positive outlook for coal usage as 195 coal plants are being built globally. (see link below)
In 2020, more than 35% of the world's power came from coal, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Roughly 25% came from natural gas, 16% from hydro dams, 10% from nuclear and 12% from renewables like solar and wind. This year, coal demand is set for a new record, driving prices to all-time highs and contributing to a worldwide scramble for fuel.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cop26-aims-banish-coal-asia-is-building-hundreds-power-plants-burn-it-2021-10-29/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-state-planner-conducts-clean-up-illegal-coal-storage-sites-2021-10-27/
China's thermal coal futures slumped to their lowest in more than a month on Wednesday, marking a sixth consecutive day of declines, after the country's state planner said it would conduct "clean up and rectification" work on coal storage sites.
The most-traded thermal coal contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell 10%, hitting its daily trading limit on Wednesday morning, and is down about 40% from the record highs hit last week on the back of a coal supply shortage.
Other commodities prices followed suit, trading largely in the red on Wednesday morning. Coking coal and coke futures also hit their limit down of 9%, while liquefied petroleum gas fell 4.8%.
Petrochemicals such as methanol and ethylene glycol fell 6.9% and 4.3% respectively, while urea , which uses coal as feedstock, declined 3.8%.
China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of coal, has been grappling with a power crunch. Coal-fired power accounts for about 60% of the country's total electricity generation, leading to electricity rationing for industry in many regions and hurting growth in the world's second-largest economy. read more
Beijing has taken a raft of measures to raise coal and power supplies, including approving new coal mines and allowing power firms to raise prices for customers.
In its latest move, China's state planner said it will conduct "clean up and rectification" work on coal storage sites in some coal-producing areas and ban storage sites without approvals in its latest move to address skyrocketing coal prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement late Tuesday that there were many unlicensed coal storage sites around mines in the main producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, "making it convenient for illegal traders to hoard coal," and "seriously disrupting" the market's operations.
Besides stepping up investigations and strengthening supervision, the three areas also need to establish a reporting system for legal and compliant coal storage sites, and ban those without approvals, the NDRC said.
They should also crack down on illegal profit-making activities such as hoarding and driving up coal prices by using illegal coal storage sites, the statement said.
In a bid to ease the supply crunch, China has been pushing coal miners to ramp up output and increasing imports so power stations can rebuild stockpiles before the winter heating season, but analysts say shortages are likely to persist for at least another few months. read more
Average coal prices for next year are forecast to ease to 700 yuan from 912 yuan in 2021, Morgan Stanley said in a research note to clients on Tuesday.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-offers-increase-gas-transit-europe-2021-10-22/
Ukraine is ready to increase its gas transit to Europe by 55 bcm and is also ready to meet a request to pump more gas to Moldova to plug shortfalls there, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the security and defence council, told a briefing on Friday.
Danilov did not clarify how Ukraine might increase its gas transit or where the gas would come from, but said the government had been ordered to prepare such an offer to European countries. Kyiv has bitterly opposed Russia's new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine as a transit route.
"Today we have a contract with Russia for 40 billion cubic meters of gas, but today we can additionally offer our European friends an additional volume of 55 billion cubic meters of gas. This decision was made today," Danilov said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-studying-mechanism-stabilise-coal-prices-over-long-run-planning-body-2021-10-26/
China's top economic planner said on Tuesday it was studying a mechanism to stabilise coal prices over the long run, in its latest move to cool the red-hot market.
The National Development & Reform Commission (NDRC) is looking into the costs and profitability of the coal sector in an effort to work out such a mechanism that will guide prices to move within a reasonable range, it said.
The NDRC is also considering to include coal into the category of "prohibiting exorbitant profits".
The new mechanism will be based on a benchmark price plus a floating range, after taking into account costs, reasonable margins and market changes, it added.
"The mechanism shall be linked to the marketisation of the thermal power sector ... and those who do not strictly follow the mechanism will be severely punished," it said.
While China thermal coal futures have come off record highs since last week after Beijing pledged to intervene, they are still up about 150% year-to-date.
The contract last traded at about 1,233 yuan per tonne, down 7% by 0155 GMT.
The government has indicated that 500-570 yuan per tonne is the reasonable range for long-term thermal coal contracts.
On Monday, the NDRC said it would investigate index providers in a bid to tame runaway prices.
I contacted Ryan Africa from Investor Relations at Thungela to enquire about the release of Q3 trading update. He replied:
"Currently it is not our intention to release quarterly updates, and thus our next scheduled update is likely to be the release of our full year results for 2021.
This is likely to be released in Q1 of 2022, together with any trading update as required in terms of the JSE regulations. In the event that we do decide to make any communication prior to this we will of course inform shareholders.
I trust that you have seen the announcement issued by Thungela on SENS/RNS on Monday? In the event that you have not seen this announcement, it can be viewed here: https://www.thungela.com/investors/sens-and-regulatory-announcements"