Member Info for belisce6

I dont see that potential farmin partners will be waiting for cormorant results.. cos if they are positive.. as we know.. no direct issue on prospect s.. But.. posiive for all namibian licence values particularly within nearby region..
So i believe that it is larry waiting for insider info on cormorant when it hits target.. then if its a negative result, he will either take whats on offer which he could do, now perhaps.. or if cormorant is positive, he may ask about the possibility to up the offer..

Jimarillo has many a time posted his communication with afe, whereby they state that deals should be cheaper now compared with a drill success etcetc...

Haha.. cpr in nxt several wks..
Nice one..
By that time tullows cormorant shouldve gone into targetted zones.. so theyll know via inside info whether that ones directly positive for the osprey or not.. hence the timing of cpr...
Hold it back just in case namibia gives bad news... i also expect cpr to be gross mean >2000 mmbo :-)))

So thats about 2.5 to 3wk wait...

One would think that from 20 to 25days into cormorant drill, theyd know whats in targetted areas... or near enuff...

I still believe char is holding out for cormorant insider results..
Then the entire region becomes higher priced than before a successful discovery.. however if it fails to show commercial oil, they revert to standard terms of 33 to 50% premium on farminees share of drillcosts plus the direct % of all backcosts... with this latter version, it would effectively be a freecarry to char with net 25% or so..
But maybe they holding out until cormorant result to try getting freecarry on 2 committed wells including the second prospect etc..

We dont know what we dont know..

However getting full freecarry with net25% left on one well looks very very doable... :-))))

Cormorant is a number of days into its circa30 day drill...

Thanks itsyou :-)

Anyways.. had a browse thru pcl on hotcopper.. looks like cormorant is tight hole.. only circa 30days or so... so most likely targets hit before the very end of entire drill.. so interesting to see if char finally farms down its namibia drill by then or around then.. and also the real timing of eco cpr..
Should be out within next wk or two i would imagine..

Yes.. probably loss making ar 38bopd but dont need 500bopd to breakeven at current prices... 500bopd can even be profitable at 35bucks.. so how much is really required.. who knows :-)))

I simply cannot see how it could end up an aaog issue.. even of the ground is not good etc.. the rig should be able to handle it all.. i think tge onus is on rig company to ensure as such..

*i have seen...

However with 2bill prospective across the acreage and majors taking their places.. who knows what larry is asking for :-)))

Back when we had 100buck oil the premiums paid on farmins were mostly higher.. like 100% above the net share for farminee..
I havent come across such a deal since brent has returned to above 70buck area... 33 to 50% premium on drill net farminee share, plus direct farminee % of backcosts paid...

Well other companies i follow or watch have had 33 or 50% premium paid on the farmin % for the drill portion with their direct % share of backcosts paid as well..
When i did some quick sums on prospect s, it appeared to be an easy fit with the drill leaving char with 25%...
Obviously what is being offered and what larry is pushing for, will be confidential and we will just get the final result whatever it may be...

Cormorant is 34 day drill from start to finish.. already a few days into it now.. not sure where the target lies in the timeframe.. but i reckon after 20days drilling it might be close.. considering the 34days might include testing on success.. i dont have the facts at hand.. just speculating.. gonna go check out pcl on hotcopper later on.. to see if they gave the info

I reckon he might hang onto cpr announcement until he knows cormorant results as an insider... if cormorant fails then make cpr announcement, rather than get very positive cpr followed by possible negative cormorant etc...
Has the time to play with now..
If a sheet of data had to go to cpr group then itll still take a week or so after that.. checking rechecking etcetcetc...

Preciousmaj.. yes.. of course.. if i make a suggestion of what may be occurring, then obviously it has come out of my head ;-))

I doubt that larry will confirm or deny such confidential and sensitive info to anyone other than give a generic response, unless farmout has been completed before the conference call etc..

I mean.. its a small risk for a major to hand over about 20mill for a 40% odd stake in potential 2bill oil with the first prospect all ready to drill or being drilled as they sign on...

There is plenty of time for farmout... plenty.. even after cormorant results are known at least by insiders to spud of prospect s...
They will already have final stage of farmout discussions by then.. and not be starting the process again..

Their fallback is to just drill at 65% share... so i see no drama here..
For the prospects on char acreage and for like at least 19 to 20mill usd its pocket money to take a risk on that...

You have answered you own question already before.. if cormorant fails, prospect s is different to direct geology of cormorant.. so i see no effect... but price remains as is.. cos as char states they have source rock and tge other pieces in their prospect anyways...

Is that a serious question preciousmaj??
A success in cormorant would be first (commercial?) oil discovery offshore namibia... you dont think that would have a positive effect on leases values in the area ??

Jimarillo has posted on his african energy communication.. have you read it ??

Surely logic would dictate that if cormorant succeeds then anything in nearby area gets more pricey...
You can of course argue against this...

No.. not at all..
Before the oilprice crash it did happen here and there that farmins were concluded at or after spud... so no panic :-)))

I do believe they await insider info on tullow cormorant result...
34day drill.. from couple days ago.. so probably should know something internally by 2 to 3 wks time... if looks good then char demands the higher price.. if looks unsuccessful then char takes price offered as it is... i believe it should be the same as it would be before cormorant results in that case..

Nevertheless.. am looking for prospect s to be fully carried for bout 25% net to char... perhaps pushing much higher in $$ or net % if cormorant is successful...

Why would char rush it ?? Theyve got the drill fully covered and more :-)))
Majors are all over the area already...

Youd think topside issues are on the drill company.. and not the explorer.. the drillcrew may try to blame it on the ground.. but other drills deeper than where they are have succeeded.. so i believe its on the drill co. for now...