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Funny old world, how sentiments have changed from shale oversupply to war in the ME, all in just over a week. Good advice halfpenny, I usually fill my oil tank in sept, just ordered a top up.

In the words of the great shorter, oil hammering up, be careful out there....

By not acting against the Iranians, Trump now looks weak. It will only take Bolton to whisper that fact in his ear & before you know it, the great blusterer will kick off. Your very brave DBNO. In your words be very careful.

I know I sound like a charlatan, but with all the craziness in the ME, this has the potential to rocket (pun not intended). Ignoring AB’s buying (the ultimate insider) will imo be seen as a major oversight by the market.

IMO Trumps Achilles heel is the unmoveable US election cycle. I think the Iranians will use the democratic process to sow trouble in the ME to destabilise & drive up the oil price, pump prices areone of Trumps success metrics. It’s Iranian payback time. As a consequence Trump will need a big success story aka a trade deal with China to also help paper over emerging cracks in the economy, but will the Chinese play ball or punish him & wait for a new administration. All of these major strategic issues are of Trumps making, he will learn the hardway that it’s easy to smash up old institutions & to criticise what others have done in the past, but it takes a very clever person to come up with the solutions. Do you think Trump is that clever person ?

If you stir up a hornets nest expect to get bitten. Surely el trumpo would have known this ?

Amazing how you can turn a positive into a negative.

True Gdshaw, on the face of it the volume of the torps looks good, but unfortunately the devil of their terms are in the detail. For example we know that some of the old torps, dropped off without explanation, so they were not worth the paper they were written on. Also, the quality of some of the torp counterparties is a bit questionable. (newish companies). I hope they are quality contracts & stand upto scrutiny, but to be honest I’m far more cynical re MrFraser IMO he has used up most of the goodwill/trust held by PI’s . I just hope he doesn’t disappoint yet again, but he now has a track record that’s not enhancing PI value.

Speedy, big difference between field trials & the real world, if you ever drive through Lincs you’ll see posters for Yara, plastered about. Having driven through recently the crops look very healthy & I think it will take a lot of persuading to get Farmers to change to poly4. All those relationships farmers have with existing suppliers will take considerable effort to dislodge & in my opinion it will take many years to get farmers to change from tried & tested techniques. I know their on paper the torps look alright, but we don’t know the small print. As I’ve already said I think you have to take what CF & et all say with a shovelful of polyhalite !

I’m in agreement with you Chilting. Scenario not dissimilar to previous downturns in the UK housing stock, given time negative equity comes good. Or like Lehman’s, the receivers had a big issue, when they ended up with a surplus after all the assets were liquidated. Time is a great healer

Chilts, although I’m replying to your post, I am now of the mind, to bury SXX in the bottom drawer under a bundle of rugs. Fortunately I cleared the majority of my holding after the rubbish stg2 news, but did get a much reduced holding at 15p, which is now underwater. Personally, I wouldn’t trust CF & I made missed (or chose to miss) some of his views on PI’s (basically if they get burnt, tough). I truly hope this reaches fruition, but I think whether we make a return is very questionable, but if it takes another 10 years, that’s the timescale I’m looking at..,

Smaller than expected says who Dbno?

Need to get your vessel shipshape Spindok & hopefully history will repeat itself... Can you recall what caused the spike 10 years ago .?

True Spin, but ultimately value will out or in the words of Kevin Costner build it & they will come.

Thanks guys for your in-depth posts. As already said it’s so much easier to make investment judgements based on what you all kindly post. Much appreciated.

Fingers crossed on Zama, could be a game changer. Bit like tensions in the MEast, if it kicks off history could repeat itself & we could see, oil prices more than quadruple. I’d rather be long than short..

I’m sure they’ll get the bonds away, but the acid test will be at what coupon. Double figures + is my guess, just hope Not too penury. As an aside I think we know now why CF didn’t take up the OO. Although he is sitting on a bunch of equity, their current value would struggle to buy him a London house fit for his standing...

Does anyone know the figure for total indebtedness of shalers ? I think I read in excess of 100bn usd, but I have feeling it maybe much higher. Maybe military action in the ME would help bail them & Wall st out of this debt bloodbath. Maybe I’ve been watching too many James Bond movies..,

What mystery guy, please explain how we are being used to pay off their debt ? Clearly you know something that’s not privy to the market.

Yeah I agree, if you throw a punch, expect an uppercut in reply