Member Info for beechhurst

Superdrug wrong example - not a dispensing pharmacy.

...... as later with Haleon.

Just another 100+ posts today, only a very few of which are insightful, show some thought and proper understanding of this business or at least that is my view. And as much as I would like to see some advancement, daft and "finger in the air" SP predictions continue to abound, as well - for one, being .."at least 60p by Weds. (I presume meant today) ... " never seemed realistic!!

For a start, instead of the uninitiated just spouting off, a little bit of reading and research would quickly tell you :

- FUM OWN the product (Eroxon)

- Coopers have been granted an exclusive LICENCE to commercialise the product whereby they take full financial responsibility for launch, marketing, advertising and distribution costs

- Licencee takes product from FUM, the LEGAL MANUFACTURER, be it own production or via 3rd party connections and sell to Coopers at AN AGREED PRICE

QED - all quite explicitly and clearly stated in RNS 23/05/22 & 15/01/24 if one wanted to look.

Essentially, then Coopers look to have carte blanche to get the product to market in any way want/through channels of their choosing, currently in the UK, it seems, via Boots/Amazon. The other interesting thing from the enquiry of Coopers this a.m. (kdonkey 1000 post @ 12.24) is that Coopers set the retail price. Hmmmm!!

Whilst for Confidentiality/Competitive reasons one will never become privy to the finer points of the Coopers, or any other for that matter, Agreement, other than might wish to disclose, the financial viability of Eroxon is rather unclear which is to me what currently holds the SP back/in check - I have already postulated what I think the April figs might show but where all goes from here is about the speed and scaling up of future sales. The omens look good but until the market has some realistic visibility and clarity on numbers I don't see the rocket blasting off in the way many predict/would hope.

Today's news should bring some incremental progress but maybe not as much as some hope, particularly if you are already using E and are eligible for free scrips, as all that will happen is that will just get the NHS (us taxpayers) to pay instead of own pocket, merely transferring a sale from one hand to another, not increasing volumes unless doubles/triples your activity as now free gratis!! And, if at the moment, there are only two supply outlets, in England/Wales, where are you going to be taking your prescription - don't think Amazon will be interested - widening out to new places looks inevitable, more I would have thought to multiples such as Superdrug etc rather than individual pharmacies where distribution costs would, no doubt, be higher.

One final thought, who is currently making money (profit) out of E. From Barder's statements FUM isn't but could Coopers be, for on my reckoning they are receiving c 65% of the retail price to offset their marketing/distribution costs etc - if so who cut the best deal, especially as don't look to have paid anything upfront, as later wi

A bit late in responding DD but firstly amused by your description of my article. As to your supposition, absolutely not as I am invested well well into 5 figures (£) and have every wish/desire for the SP to materially advance, preferably sooner than later. However, after so many going into raptures following earlier RNS and subsequent fatuous, delusional or fanciful posts about takeovers, price expectations etc, applying some REALITY and articulating a more detailed understanding of the current financial performance seemed pertinent.

In most respects the TU merely repeated much that had previously been telegraphed, so, to me, the real news was the snippets of financial info imparted, as scant as ever they were. That said, with a bit of application, any proper investor rather than just a punter, would want to properly appraise themselves as best they could by trying to establish where had moved to in the journey and path to profitability rather than wait to be spoon feed in April.

Me trying to knock the SP is far from it, the CEO was also condemned for that late last year when likewise, depending on your view, he, rightly or wrongly, put out a reality check on financial performance expectations - better to see proper daylight than have your head in the clouds.

Going forward, this was always going to be about scaling up and whilst the opportunity looks to be there, US and all, the market still seems to be guarded about the level of monetary commercialisation that can be achieved possibly because of the caution of the Board towards the speed with which see profitability arising, so seeing the SP take off in the way many predict remains dubious but as a LTH I am in for as long as it takes. Patience and pragmatism are not best attributes of many on these BB's.

With this weeks RNS many seem to have become quite excitable amid heightened expectations and speculation especially over the possibilities of a takeover/selling out. Certainly the talk is positive in developing a more extensive/worldwide presence with Eroxon and whilst an acquirer may take a forward view of potential, some sight will surely be needed of what the profitability of FUM is/could be in order to determine a price for the business, after all that is what a buyer is after, is it not. To coin a phrase .... "sales are vanity, profit is sanity." To help in this assessment what do the numbers in the TU say :

- Revenues of £3.1M equate to £1.4M for H2 compared to £1.7M in H1 or effectively the first 3 months Eroxon on the market which hardly suggests growing momentum and I struggle to see how Retail Sales equivalent of c£9M represents a 20% market share as this would imply the whole for, UK/Belgium, as little more than £50M - latest data suggests $3Bn worldwide.

- if GPM of 58% is the average for the year as a whole, with 53.37% recorded for H1, H2 comes out at c64.3%, something you might expect to see as the initial manufacturing process became more efficient etc

- on the given figures indication is that GP will be c £1.8M offset by Admin Costs looking as if running at C £225K p.m, say £2.7M p.a

- put altogether trading loss for the year looks to be c£900K split more or less equally in each half year - this excludes R &D and the one off costs reflected in the Interim Statement, probably making total losses for Y23 of at least £2.4M

- given unit sales in H1 was verbally said to be c200K, H2 calculates to c165K or c 6350 p.w which might reasonably tie in with some of the figs banded about by other commentators over past weeks

N.B. the £500K delayed Order into Jan, assumed to relate to Retail Sales Value or 20000 units could, on my reckoning, have improved GP by possibly £175K and thus reduced projected loss accordingly.

In my view all of the above fits in with a Cash Position of £7.8M H1, £9.36M 08/23 (after Haleon cash receipt) and £7.7M H2.

Maybe all of this is why the market remains a little wary and is holding back the SP and may well, in the short term, also deter a likely bidder turning up with, at least, a decent price.

As they say .... "you can make anything of numbers" .... but at least my take on the latest disclosures. April, will, however, tell the truth of it or not!! Whatever, perhaps puts all into perspective with Barder's comment today, being ....... "as we move towards profit" ...... rather than actually being there already. I don't doubt it will come but maybe not as quick as many hope or would want.

Ain't happening and good on Crownos/Wonga for showing proper understanding and perspective/sense on this subject as opposed to the illiteracy shown by a number of other commentators whose knowledge of investing is clearly lacking. Very much shows the difference between punters looking for short term/quick profits by just picking out names in hope rather than proper investors who put their money in after getting a proper appreciation of the underlying prospects, and risks, of the business involved. As a result it is the former who constantly bleat (as per the many nonsense messages/much speculation seen in past days/weeks) about not being able to "cash in" within what might regard as specified timescales nor have any appreciation of the complexities that would be associated with what has been portrayed as being arranged. Don't get me wrong the BoD are not blameless by "dangling a carrot" in the way have but having been involved in big corporate/financing arrangements in the past believe you me these are transactions that can drag on for far far longer than originally anticipated. That said after this length of time of unfulfilled expectation about time something was formally said of what the current status of affairs is - maybe 7.00 a.m. tomoz.

Bumblebee, I don't think you picked up on my earlier note showing, by his own words, this irritant acknowledged has £0p invested in Totally and will remain so, regardless, so I share your view, as with others, it is unfathomable why somebody should commit to this relentless barrage when has no apparent personal interest.

So in making, give or take, 23 posts today, of which 7 were here, 4 on Angle and 11 on Metro, has, with the latter, the temerity to say, of others, thus ...... "Oh dear 521 negative posts and not a single positive one says it all...not very balanced". Talk about the kettle calling the pot black. Furthermore, since becoming a member in July, this year, TGTD has made 955 posts i.e an average of 7 a day, my suspicion being has been a serial commentator probably, in the past, living under a different nom de plume and, maybe, having been censored/banished previously. What we have been experiencing, as with the other sites, is not behaviour of a rational or constructive investor but one of an intentional disruptor or a wannabe influencer acting on behalf of others (for what gain or motive who knows) and their agendas which if proven correct would be an abuse of these Boards - if these are being policed properly we might be able to rid ourselves of so much that often blights these sites and get away from having to sift through endless nauseating posts to find something of real value to read.

"My investment in TLY is currently 0p and will remain so regardless." is a quote from said person's post of 6th November which I recalled on this BB yesterday under the heading BEYOND COMPREHENSION which mysteriously disappeared from view some time during the day without explanation or comment.

The thrust of my observation was why on earth would somebody continuously bombard the site and essentially trash the company when had no interest, certainly financial, in it, whatsoever, it would seem. And for what purpose especially when there is always talk of not abusing the integrity of sites like this.

If there has been a complainant for bringing up a statement of fact, albeit maybe with a little barb attached, many other posts should, I would have thought, have been culled for far more dubious comment but hey ho!!!

Clearly, I am not alone but as we had post 932 x2 yesterday looks like the tirade will continue as if "water off a ducks back" irrespective of the sentiments of others.

For those seasoned readers of corporate speak strikes me has been pushed off the deck, not jumped - with newcomer immediately in place will be a "lame duck" and just getting office attendance allowance til 31/12. Either way a fresh perspective can be no bad thing.

Wouldn't get too excited 2227, VG not been buying as % only increased by reduction of shares in issue as per effect of Buy Backs. Actual number of shares held still exactly same as shown in 2022 AA.

With online retail, if not bricks and mortar as well, generally looking to go nowhere in the immediate future maybe, to some extent, an understandable article given the negative aspects highlighted. Given the performances of the more notable retail onliners one had to be fearful what the Interims would hold. Could have expected worse but notwithstanding the outcome, like AA, it has been pleasantly surprising the SP has held up reasonably well.

On the counter, what are the upsides remembering the expression CASH IS KING :

- positive EBITDA of 17.5M

- positive net cash generation of 13.6M

- cash balances of 49.1M

And for those that still do not understand Securitisation, the debt is not a "millstone around its neck" but a normal feature of the Financial Services Industry where Gearing of up to 4/5 : 1 is a quite common Covenant - in this instance v Net Assets of BWNG c0.8 : 1 with Net Receivables LTV of 67.8% or 1.47x covered. Isolating, the company is, in effect, debt free.

So what of the value of BWNG shares, the following being a rough assessment :

1) v Net Assets of 383.8M (Market Cap c85M) = c83p

2) 1) less Intangibles (58.4m) = c71p

3) 2) less P & M (50.8M) = 60p

4) 3) less Nil recovery from Net Receivables after repaying debt = c28p

You can strip the business down to whatever level you want but the underlying sense is must, in asset terms, be worth at least 30/40p but as they say ... "You an make anything of numbers"!!

Even though the above would suggest there is latent value in the business above and well beyond the current SP you cannot , tradingwise, see much, in the short term, to stimulate it higher save any potential excitement emanating from one Mr. Ashley. Meantime, one to sit on awaiting the return of better spending habits allied to the easing of present financial stresses of the pocket.

EXTRACT FROM FT ARTICLE 20 OCTOBER 2023 citing INVESTORS CHRONICLE ANALYSIS

SELL: N Brown (BWNG) The online retailer is losing customers in what appears to be a continuing trend, writes Christopher Akers. After years of revenue falls, it isn’t a surprise to report that N Brown’s top line moved in the wrong direction in its latest half-year period. In an update in June, management pointed to unhelpful spring weather and low consumer confidence as key factors behind weak trading. The Aim-traded online clothing and footwear retailer swung to a loss as wet weather in July and August also deterred shoppers from updating their wardrobes. Revenue contraction was, unsurprisingly, seen across both the company’s divisions. The broader post-pandemic ecommerce comedown is hurting. Product revenue fell by 11 per cent to £188mn. Lower retail sales had a knock-on impact on financial services revenue, which was down by 9 per cent to £110mn. A glance at the company’s key performance indicators highlights the scale of the challenge as it tries to turn things around. Website visits fell by 13 per cent, order numbers fell by 18 per cent, and active customer numbers fell by 14 per cent against last year. On the plus side, the gross margin was up 40 basis points, helped by improved freight rates and lower underlying financial services arrears. And adjusted cash profits of £18mn were in line with board expectations. Management forecasts profits of £45mn for the full year, although this would be a £12mn annual fall. With sales headwinds set to continue, we see no reason for an upgrade. House broker Shore Capital said that strategic progress has provided a basis “to ponder a return to much stronger profit growth and cash generation in the medium term”. That looks like wishful thinking based on the current evidence

A number of topics, new and old, have been raised today which has prompted further thought and analysis around the following :

SHARE PRICE

I, too, am bemused by the lack of progression given all the positive and groundbreaking news of the past 12 months not to mention an already improving financial performance and even better trading prospects ahead given further intended launches etc. And nobody, yet, seems to have given much credence to what should come out of opening up in the US - hopefully a bonanza but still to be seen!!

Just 12 months ago the SP closed @ 42p v 49p today, hardly what you might have expected with all that has occurred over the period especially when the market always seems to profess that share pricing is reflective more of future events/expectations and performance than history/the past. All sounds rather contrarian at the moment, almost, as somebody has already observed, there is disbelief with the realities that have now come to pass. Another 12 months on might tell us differently. I for one, think what has happened in the last 3 months in becoming a trading company rather than just an R & D outfit adds plenty of confidence/reassurance that the business now has a progressive future, than not.

MANAGEMENT CAPABILITY/COMPETENCE

I admit, from the interviews I have seen, JB's personna comes across as a little staid, traditional/conventional but, to me, has got it right in way is organising the way ahead.

I put this business down as a typical Hunter and Farmer/Gatherer sort where different skills are needed for each category/neither the twain shall mix. In this context I liken the R & D Team as the hunters i.e developing a product for market but with no specific talent to commercialise so hand that over to the professionals, in this case Cooper & Haleon to harvest the product to the full. On that ground JB must be applauded for recognising the need for employing proven external expertise to better maximise the value of Eroxon when not available from elsewhere within Futura.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

I have already given my take on the Interim Results but given that revenues only came in Apr/June period you can split the quarters and conclude the effective Q2 operating loss was as little as £215K. And if you think unit sales in the 3 months progressively increased in number, month on month, you might even judge that June, as a single month, was nearing BE already.

PROJECTIONS

Given my take above I share others thoughts that 2024 expectations for BE is rather cautious. After all only need to increase unit sales, compared to Q2, by 25% to achieve same which should be more than possible with the new launches anticipated during remainder of year. Is it not "Better to Underpromise and Overachieve" than the reverse. In this instance with all at a relatively new stage and much else yet to come through and be shown to be sustainable maybe prudence should be the by word.

As ever, tomorrow is another day so what will that brin

Simples DI.

2 things stood out from today's announcement, viz :

- normally financial performance is shown as PBT (Profit, or Loss as may be, BEFORE Tax) whereas chose to flatter Net Loss, quoted as £1.76M, only AFTER writing in an estimated Tax Refund/Credit to be claimed against R & D Costs. Excluding, Operating Loss £1.96M as per P 6 L Statement. However,

- included in latter figure was an Additional £0.55M (£0.1M H1 22) of Non Cash & Other One Off Charges which need omitting if to fully appreciate true operating position

Therefore, I deducted, and, for prudence, rounded up a bit, to come to £1.46M.

All covered under FINANCIAL REVIEW on Page 7 of 8 of today's RNS and elsewhere if one chooses to look.

Taking all into account and on the basis of regular recurring operational and administrative costs (state no change in company headcount) one can visualise, even though some expenditure has been reclassified to take account now more than just an R & D company, now have a reasonably static core cost base. The only caveat is R & D may continue to vary, up or down, depending on what holds in the future but for the present one assumes more of the same. On this premise I applied the same metrics displayed in today's figures i.e

- units sold in H1 given, in general terms, as 200,000 (say =£5M in sales)

- receivables/revenue of £1.7M equates to 34% of cash sales

- GP c53% of Revenues

To project forward a potential BE point which, for a half year, I see as follows

- 500,000 unit sales & £25 a pop = £12.5M

- Revenue ratio of 34% gives Receivables of £4.25M

- continued GPM of 53% yields GP of £2.26M

less

- core cost base of c£2.3M

QED.

There are some variables that could come into play such as does the Revenue Receipt Ratio benefit as volumes increase and/or the GPM improves for the same reason. Either way I can, in my own mind, envisage where we need to get to to start seeing all turn into a sustainably profitable company a la JB

Others have made comments about :

MANUFACTURING

All outsourced, as fully covered in current/past communications though whether have assisted such parties with some early capital/set up costs not known, as far as I am aware. However, with P & E in BS of nigh on £1.1M one could think have invested something into the manufacturing process for the third parties unless totally related to equipment etc. required in own R & D activities.

CASH POSITION

It should be remembered that the company now have some elements of working capital to finance, notably carrying almost £1M of Trade Receivables (as at 31/08/23 will probably be somewhat higher given increasing volume/sales levels) which will have absorbed a like amount of ££££, so this must be factored into some peoples thinking of why cash not as one might have expected.

Hoping the Market/the Analysts understand all of this as if so let us see the SP reflect accordingly.

JB spoke of Revs & GP (margin c53%) c4mins in to today's interview all of which can actually be seen in the detailed P&L & associated BS found in Company Documents in Investor Centre page of company website.

Expenses/Costs in H1 23 incl c0.5M of additional One Offs, in reality leaving Op Loss (pre effects of any taxation) of c1.46M.

Extrapolating the numbers out and presuming all factors i.e margins, admin/R & D costs remain similar, a quick calculation suggests operating breakeven for H2 23 could be achieved on 500K of product unit sales (=£12.5M) - given that sales volumes will have progressively grown since Belgium/UK launch one could envisage run rate is now greater than the 200K unit sales announced as having been effected during the HI (effectively Q2). On my estimation target for BE is 80/85K of unit sales p.m. which according to JB narrative, clearly thinks is an achievable target for 2024 which is only 3 months away from starting!! My assumptions regarding profitability discount any financial effects of the Haleon up front payment as depending on the terms of the agreement may well have to be amortised over a given period.

All we need to get to the "Promised Land" is to keep hearing the tills ringing!!

"Enjoy 20% decline tomorrow ......." said the new resident forecaster!! I know the day isn't over yet but implication was there would be further collapse on opening. Now according to my maths 8.75 - 20% =7.00. And the current share price is 8.82/has edged 9.00, a smidgen up. Leave you to make your own mind up about the brainbox who has come to clutter up this BB with his "visionary" utterings. Don't get me wrong, this hasn't been a pretty sight in more recent weeks but doomsday seems a bit far fetched!!

One cld always remind him of his "boast" to create, was it not, a £500M Market Cap company. What cld possibly have gone wrong!!

Does the recent 75% SP rise in Nova indicate the market/everybody but the BoD of Ygen know they are buying at an absolute bargain price or just pure unfounded speculation. Maybe voting down the current offer might be worth the chance of something better being forced along. Really not that much left to lose. You can always live in hope.

Some have suggested big pharma could be trying to scupper FDA approval for own self interests but how abt the owners of Boots (American giant Walgreens) actually doing the opposite and being an advocate/pro lobbyist for FUM, the deal being for taking the risk with Boots in the UK they get sole/principal distribution/selling rights in the US. With over 9000 pharmacies/retail outlets boom!! Pure speculation, dreaming or sheer fantasy, maybe the 22nd/26th with the investor conferences will out the reality tho would you really put those shows on if didn't have a good story to tell.

Q1 Q1
27/04/22 03/05/23
Underlying Profit 1.785b 2.22b
Stat Profit c1.2b 1.64b
Share Price c46p c46p
If markets are "forward looking" you would have thought they would have seen the markedly improved performance was coming, after all the general punter did, so on all the theories they should have driven the SP much higher before now easing off if things are set to get worse!! Yet here we are with annualised UP (after impairments ) having run to = c£9b and no overall progress with the SP. So on what basis all the fanciful predictions for 50+, 60 or even 80p - the historical data defy such notions as does an ilogical market, they will also find something to counter/knock down the good or something better.