STALEMATE!!?4 Feb 2023 13:38
Plenty of hypothesis/speculation re a TO/BO or Going Private none of which, at this juncture, and in my opinion, seem likely/feasible, so time for a recap. First, the maths, so far disclosed :
SHARES BOUGHT - FRSRS 58.15M + ALNCE 15.8M = 73.95M
SHARES SOLD - SCHRDS 55.735M (RNS)/58.835M (2021 AA) + OTHERS (?) 18.215/15.115M
So some 16% of shareholders thought 30p (rising to 40p) was a good price at which to get out - WHY.
Trading decline over recent years and latest weak outlook hardly inspires one to buy the shares on performance prospects allied to which restoring the dividend looks unlikely to be affordable in the foreseeable future. Notwithstanding the "battle" probably going on in the background, some, as others on this BB, look to be taking the view "a bird in the hand ...", particularly if you think there will be a complete and unbreakable impasse with he two combatants.
So what, to the protagonists, is the attraction of BWNG, my thoughts being :
- the controlling family want to preserve/enhance their position, especially if the supposition moved to AIM for IHT purposes is correct and won't, therefore, want this status affected until have reaped the benefit, certainly for the main man, if not both senior gentlemen. On this premise there will be no disbanding of the Concert Party until, at least, these events have passed in xx (?) years time, which dismisses a T/O, etc etc for how long it takes
- Frasers can hardly be attracted to BWNG's product/merchandise range as given their existing connections could, one imagines, quite quickly/easily tap into this sort of supply chain. The other half of the business is the credit operation and if one reads the DT article from last weekend, getting access to that looks, to me, the target given what was said therein i.e.
"The Treasury has promised a crackdown on shopping loans, however as debt charities warn consumers are being encouraged to overspend.
Mr Murray is understood to believe that being regulated by the FCA should help soothe concerns that customers could be persuaded to buy unaffordable items.
To be regulated is an enormous process,” said a source familiar with his thinking. “ You need a track record of prioritising customers and treating them fairly.”
Being no easy fix starting from scratch, is all of the above not what BWNG offers as a quick and efficient entry into the desired market. The issue is how can Frsrs achieve?
The A's are clearly not going to give up their position, for personal reasons/objectives, and if there is a deal to be done what better way than from a tower of strength, hence the accumulating of more shares. Ashley/Frasers haven't, on the face of it, the ability to muscle their way in unless find a devious method, so you look at STALEMATE. The alternative is to find a collaborative way for each to meet and preserve each of their own wishes. Is that possible - time will tell. All herein just to be taken as a bit of coffee morn
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