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We tried getting our crystal balls out last year and look where that got everybody.
Now everyone seems to have the magic formula to game the tender offer. Take the tender or no, according to your preference, fine.
But let me assure you the market’s efficiency will ensure you probably don’t stand to gain much from trying to trade this. Folks like LOAM will be many steps ahead of you and before you know it the clever plan to extract 20% is in tatters.
Folk are trying to apply a handful of known variables to a situation with many unknowns. It cost us with the Samsung settlement and I feel some folk are just starting all over again with the magical free shares train post tender. It’s myopic and over simplistic. But hey, to each their own.
It’s slightly alarming to hear that some intend to trade the drop. If this share has taught us anything it’s that most of the time, what actually comes to pass is none of what has been discussed on these boards. Now many times people need to learn that, to their cost, I don’t know, but the likelihood is history will repeat itself and something no one thought of will happen.
By all means if folk want to take the tender or not, but trying to predict what will happen post buy back with a view to trading seems a fools errand IMO.
Kooba I’ve chewed this one over myself.
I don’t think you can take too much of a read off it. He’s been essentially ‘locked in’ for years. Selling his stock on the open market would’ve sent alarm bells with TR1s etc. this is a chance for him to extract some value right now and still maintain, in relative terms, a big holding.
This is one of those rare moments when value can be extracted without it sending shockwaves. I don’t blame him considering how long he’s held his shares and if he wants to give himself a payday, it’s his company and that’s fine by me.
I don’t think it really tells you much about the future direction of travel. That’s the conclusion I’ve reached anyway.
Tender suits the bulls because your existing shares are greatly strengthened by the tender (in essence a buy back) a fully subscribed tender and you’ve basically doubled your holding based on current MCap.
Just boils down to if you see the MCap ex div rising organically or not…
I’ve wondered this one myself. Due to not having to notify until the end of the trading day, they could trade this really hard, cause a massive swing up or down, and not have to instantly declare, similar to what happened on ‘settlement day’.
Volumes will be what to watch out for although I guess that the tender won’t require tr1 until after the fact because it’s not being done in the open market.
Full uptake of the 24p subscription takes A LOT of shares out of circulation. It will really concentrate your exposure to any upside. This is why I don’t think it’ll take a great deal of profitability to put the SP into overdrive.
Still, plenty of ifs buts and maybes for that. But I’ve decided to hold and won’t participate in the tender.
Thanks to all contributions on the ‘bull case’ thread I started. Really enjoyed reading people’s thoughts on that.
If (and this is a big if) the guidance is to be believed and if our dots are in a high profile sensor, what’re people’s thoughts on the proposal? When it comes to investing I’ve always been happy with a fair amount of risk (well I wouldn’t be here otherwise!) but I wonder if things pan out, even with modest P/E the buyback could mean the company is in profit by a few mil and the share price could be in £ not pence.
I don’t trust myself/not bothered by the concept of trying to trade the distribution and am warming to the idea of increasing my exposure by sitting on my hands.
What’re others takes on this one?
This is just a buyback in tender offer clothing.
I’m not sure who 24p appeals to in honesty. Certainly not LTHs, not even traders. The premium is laughable. If they were serious about attracting any sort of interest in a tender offer, they would’ve pitched it closer to 30p. The tender offer is simply there for the optics. ‘You have a choice’ etc.
If you believe the narrative of commercialisation (and let’s face it that’s not a given) then you’ll be holding onto your shares because they may be worth a lot more than they otherwise might have been without the buyback.
I for one absolutely disagree with res 2. I think enough money has been extracted at the expense of shareholders and voting against res 2 means that board and shareholders are better aligned. Res 2 makes this whole operation an options massaging event.
Agree Morbox. It’s a no from me.
Don’t see how nearly 40% was consulted when so many shares are in the hands of PIs
As Nanonano alluded to before, the settlement and commercial prospects are most likely linked in the sense that the settlement underpinned the company for the projected commercial runway. However, it is becoming apparent that the commercial timeline is perhaps not running to schedule.
I’d much rather they update the market to such an effect rather than this radio silence, if that is the case…
Haha very good Troublesome 😉
My biggest concern is that they use the distribution to mask and fudge because ultimately the market will see right through it and it’ll only hurt shareholders in the long run.
As I’ve said before, a straight divi is bullish. To the board: accept the cratered SP as a reflection of your mismanagement of the company and rebuild from there. I think that’s the only way to properly signal to the market you are backing this company to grow, and most LTHs, especially ones who have been in it for years, will be prepared to hold to see that through.
This company and its shareholders don’t need the board protecting their little Fiefdoms. They need the board to commit to its own narrative of commercial viability by accepting the (what should be) the tempoeary dip in the SP ex div.
I see something in what you say but the truth is we are all speculating in this vacuum.
I don’t give the current leadership much credit, but I’m sure even they realise that drifting delay on concluding a painful and disappointing chapter of Nano’s dealings with Samsung is hurting sentiment, and their viability as a leadership, far more than a few quid in interest will benefit.
Well I suppose the sliver lining is that whether or not they are in the AVP there is absolute 0 speculation baked into the current SP!
Let’s get some perspective here. The guy is raking in 25k a month pre tax. In a majority PI owned company. If he can’t get his act together and respond to PIs, you know, the ones paying his wages, or at least get someone else to do it, then to me that seems a dereliction of duty.
This delay and radio silence is incredibly frustrating and a sad indictment on the empty words of improving comms.
Final litigation funds were received 24th Jan, for me ‘shortly’ will no longer apply once a full month has elapsed, that leaves today and tomorrow. If there’s still nothing then I’ll be in touch with investor relations.
Really appreciate your time and insights nano, thanks!
Are you still of the mind our dots are in this thing nano?
Great insights nano, thank you.
A quick question on the whole idea of the sensors sitting behind a ‘firewall’ why do you think this particular bit of tech would be singled out to be protected from a tear down ?
Thanks