Member Info for BeatingtheMarket

To be honest, I am a long term holder of Harbour and have never used the tool to look at it until now. I use the tool for spread betting rather than long term dividend holds like this which I hold in my ISA.

Unfortunately the macro environment has hit it hard but I have no doubt it will get back there. First it needs to breaK back through the £2 resistance.

Good luck!

Its my own development. Has worked very well this year!

Harbour Energy (HBR) – Full Technical Analysis

1. Overview of Market Context

• Recent Price: ~192.62 GBX

• Key Timeframes Analyzed: 5-min, 15-min, 1-hour, 1-day

• Market Sentiment: Recovering from a sharp decline; potential accumulation

• Indicators Used:

• Bollinger Bands (BB)

• Average True Range (ATR)

• Money Flow Index (MFI)

• Trend Indicator

⸻

Short-Term Analysis (5-min & 15-min Charts)

Price Action:

• Strong bullish recovery: Price rebounding from lows, consistently forming higher lows.

• Near upper Bollinger Band: Short-term momentum is strong, but nearing overbought levels.

• Support Levels: 185-188 GBX

• Resistance Levels: 193-195 GBX (psychological level & Bollinger Band upper boundary)

Indicators:

• ATR: Declining → Lower volatility, more controlled price action.

• MFI (Money Flow Index): Rising towards 80 → Near overbought but still room for upside.

• Volume Analysis: Green volume spikes → Buyers stepping in with conviction.

Verdict:

✅ Short-term bullish but may face resistance at 193-195 GBX.

⚠ Potential for pullback or consolidation before continuation.

⸻

Medium-Term Analysis (1-hour Chart)

Price Action:

• Strong reversal pattern: Higher lows confirm trend shift from bearish to neutral-bullish.

• Resistance at 196-200 GBX: Strong selling previously emerged at this level.

• Support at 185 GBX: Well-defined area where buyers stepped in.

Indicators:

• ATR: Slight uptick → Volatility increasing.

• MFI: Above 60, indicating increasing buying pressure but not yet overbought.

Verdict:

✅ More upside possible, especially above 193 GBX.

⚠ Expect resistance at 196-200 GBX, potential rejection.

⸻

Long-Term Analysis (1-day Chart)

Price Action:

• Major downtrend broken? Price rebounding from deep correction.

• Still below 50 & 100 MA → Long-term trend remains bearish until reclaiming 210+.

• Support at 182-185 GBX: Key level buyers defended.

• Strong resistance at 200-205 GBX: Long-term selling zone.

Indicators:

• ATR: Spiking → Higher volatility = potential trend reversal.

• MFI: Recovering from 20 (oversold) → Signs of accumulation.

Verdict:

✅ Possible trend reversal if 200+ GBX is reclaimed.

⚠ Risk remains if price fails to break key moving averages.

⸻

Final Summary & Trading Plan

✅ Bullish Catalysts

• Strong short-term momentum, higher lows.

• Buyers absorbing recent selling pressure.

• Recovering from oversold conditions.

⚠ Risks & Caution

• 193-195 GBX resistance needs to be broken.

• 200 GBX key inflection point for medium-term reversal.

• If rejected at 195, price may retest 185-188 GBX.

⸻

🛠️ Suggested Trading Plan

Long Trades (if not already in position):

• Entry: On breakout above 193 GBX, with confirmation.

• Stop-Loss: Below 188 GBX (recent strong support).

• Profit Targets:

Great insight and one that really does have impact on the market.

The agreement was:

BASF’s Ordinary Shares will be subject to a six month lock-up following completion (subject to customary exceptions). The lock-up arrangements will also apply to any Ordinary Shares held by LetterOne in the event LetterOne converts its Non-Voting Shares into Ordinary Shares within the period of six months from completion

Completion date was 3 September so you are quite correct that 6 months would have been 3 March. Strong hand investors know this and will have been watching for BASF selling. There was one big spike in selling this morning that looked to me as if institutions were testing to see if sellers were exhausted. Since there was little downward action, they then came in with large buys. I do expect upward movement from here (Oil price permitting).

Hardly a significant purchase - he only holds £95k worth of shares. I would expect a director to be holding a minimum of £300-500k worth otherwise they are simply virtue signalling. He is obviously just banking on his 'free' stock options and these director purchases are only trying to give the market confidence. Doesn't really work like that.

A big 1mm institutional purchse this afternoon - they are slowly coming back to the party. We just need the oil price and time to get back above £2 and then onwards to £2.18.

Brent above $70 and HBR down 2%. Looks like strong hands flushing out the last of the sellers before stepping in. I doubt much change this week but we should see a bounce in the next 2 weeks

EPS is a loss of 0.10 per share versus analysts estimates of 0.31 per share - not good

Look at the dates - this is for 2026-27

No - a divi cut would be totally the wrong message and a last resort. Cut Capex and non essential opex until the oil price improves. They need to show that returning cash to shareholders is a priority.

This has all the trademarks of a short squeeze and institutional investors closing positions prior to quarter and year end. Caxton have been reducing and I suspect others - this will support the price into year end but the likelihood of a significant 5-15% pull back through to the earnings release is significant. Especially true if retail estimates are weak.

Over the last 4 years, Burberry’s stock performance in December typically showed a rally driven by year-end short covering and seasonal optimism, with gains ranging from 2% to 5%, much more this year. However, January consistently exhibited declines of -2% to -5%, likely due to profit-taking, renewed short interest, and portfolio adjustments post year-end. This recurring pattern suggests a temporary December rise, followed by weakness in January, offering potential opportunities for short positions as the new year begins.

Earnings day for #IHS - expect to miss consensus because of currency challenges but cash flow and strategy updates will boost this from recent lows. $IHS

What was your entry point? That is a big risk and not matching with good trading practices. Let me know your entry point and I will share output from a risk management tool I have developed

Glad we agree.

I notice there is no mention of a November update on Harbours website. Are they now shifting that to January?

From my Gen AI model. Updated with Brent at $79. I have included all data on DEA and Harbour.

Fair Value Estimate Using EV/EBITDA Multiple:

• Harbour’s fair value heavily depends on the industry’s EV/EBITDA multiple. For integrated and independent E&P companies, typical multiples range between 3x-6x, depending on production mix, debt levels, and operational efficiency.

• Assuming a conservative multiple of 4x (given Harbour’s debt and UK tax exposure):

• Enterprise Value (EV):

3.1 billion * 4 = $12.4 billion

• Net Debt Consideration:

• Net debt remains around $2.2 billion.

• Equity Value Calculation:

Equity Value = $12.4 billion - $2.2 billion = $10.2 billion

• Per Share Valuation:

• Shares Outstanding: 1.44 billion

• Fair Value per Share:

$10.2 billion / 1.44 billion shares = $7.08/share

4. GBP Fair Value with Current Exchange Rate:

With GBP/USD at 1.32, translating the USD fair value into GBP:

• Fair Value per Share (GBP):

$7.08 / 1.32 = £5.36/share

5. Comparison with Current Price:

• Current Price (as of last update): £2.81/share

• Upside Potential:

\left( \frac{5.36 - 2.81}{2.81} \right) * 100 = 90.74%

6. Key Considerations:

• Hedging Impact: With 40% of oil hedged at lower prices, the full benefit of $79 Brent will not be realized.

• UK Tax Regime: The recently increased Windfall Taxes can erode the benefit of higher crude prices.

• Debt Levels & Interest Rates: Harbour’s debt servicing costs may also affect cash flows, especially in a rising rate environment.

Conclusion:

With Brent crude at $79 and the new hedging-adjusted EBITDA estimates, the fair value for Harbour Energy rises significantly. The potential fair value per share is £5.36, suggesting a strong upside of nearly 90% from the current levels. This reflects Harbour’s significant operational leverage to higher oil prices and its diversified asset base.

Is FTSE 100 entry guaranteed? There are a lot of insiders so free float market cap may not be sufficient. Would happily be proved wrong please.

Reinvesting below £3 is a no brainer imo