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Chuggley,
GAD was setup as a production facility by Mologic in April 2020. I had always though it was set up to manufacture and sell tests to Low to middle income countries at very low profit margins, in particularly Africa countries. Although the CEO statement below also mentions the UK. I believe Mologic received large donations from the Gates foundations and are essentially a not for profit organisation. I have always thought it was trying to heal the world, not make a multi billion pound company.
It will be very interesting ( hopefully exciting )to hear manufacturing costs and profits for the new Visitect Antigen test.
Also interested to hear how many GAD are making for the UK market and how many for other countries.
ODX might need to treble production again?
"Mark Davis, CEO, Mologic: “This new facility is an exciting development in Mologic’s efforts to improve access to quality diagnostics in low-income setting and to support the global pandemic response in the UK, Africa and throughout the world. We are thankful to the many donors and investors who believe in our mission to make diagnostics affordable and accessible for all.”"
Chuggley,
"Am I correct in saying only ODX shares are available on any stockmarket?
I don't think GAD or suresreen are. Will this further add value?
Will we see money move to ODX from AVCT , Abingdon and maybe even NCYT as we'll offer better growth opportunities"
Yes, To my knowledge that is correct. Only ODX is listed. This was my reason for investing 8 months ago ODX were the only company that was listed in the UK RTC consortium . 8 months on, the price is the same, that should all finally change now due to a different deal.
GLA
BB
"Hi guys. Does anyone know what GADs and SureScreens production capacity?"
GAD ' 40 million per year ramping upto 250million per year in May 2021
SURESCREEN Manufacturing capacity is not known to me.
ODX 50 million per year ramping up to 100 million per year in April 2021
So in May GAD and ODX can make 7 million per week, that leaves GOV 7 million short of the 2 million per day target.
So perhaps Surecreen can make 7 million a day? Or GAD or ODX need to increase capacities?
Obviously we need TT and approvals and actual contracts but his looks like very very good news.
GLA
BB
Hi Vascular,
Bedfordshire, UK, 24 APRIL 2020: Mologic Ltd, a leading developer of lateral flow and rapid diagnostic technologies, disclosed today that work is well underway on a new diagnostic manufacturing facility adjacent to the firm’s current laboratory in Bedfordshire, UK.
The facility has been incorporated as an independent, sustainable social enterprise under the name of Global Access Diagnostics, with a commitment to deliver diagnostics at a fair price to both national and international markets.
https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-launches-manufacturing-facility-to-boost-access-to-covid-19-rapid-diagnostic-tests/
Sorry, This might be a false alarm.
"Thank you for your order request for AbC-19 Rapid Tests.
A member of our team will contact you as soon as possible to process your order.
Kind regards, Ella
Abingdon Health plc
York Biotech Campus
York
North Yorkshire, YO41 1LZ, UK
+44 (0) 1904 406082"
Hi All,
I registered my interest to buy antibody test from Abingdon, and have just received an email saying the order can now be placed online.
Not sure if this has been posted already today?
GLA
BB
Hani,
"Let me rephrase it what GDR got that ODX doesn’t"
At the moment ODX have 180 million shares GDR have 63 million shares.
Both companies have huge potential.
GLA
Gg
Excellent news!
Thanks Chuggley.
I wish they had been clearer in their RNS. Realistically TT would be expected to be completed any day now!
TT will be the catalyst for sales, nothingness more important for ODX at this stage.
From the RNS 24th Dec.
"As announced at the Interim results in November 2020, Omega has now established its technology transfer team and look forward to updating shareholders in the New Year on how the technology transfer and CE Mark is going, so the Company can sell the Rapid Test under Omega's "VISITECT ® brand."
GLA
BB
Big Jock,
Ok I understand,
please can you consider to ask "when TT actually started, not when the team was established ?
The two statements for the company are slightly inconsistant.
Many Thanks.
BB
JAdam,
Thanks for your opinion.
It was just a question. I asked the same question very late in Dec and the feedback from this board was that the TT started in Nov and we should have an RNS early Jan and the price would be flying by now.
In my opinion this information could have been made clearer. Two statement have been made. One that TT commenced and another 4 weeks later indicating that the team to carry out the TT was established.
Note: The Dec 24th RNS does not say TT has commenced or is progressing.
I am holding, but I am frustrated and would like some clarifications.
As I see it: it has been stated that there are no NDAs. Also any award of sales contracts would be RNS'd. So I conclude we don't have any YET. This could change at any minute.
I think the only Covid test we can sell independently at the moment, is the Visitect antibody test? RTC is locked in with the consortium? Visitect Antigen does not exist yet, but should be completed early this year, whatever early means.
ODX have a huge potential, just need some sales and to make sales the next step is TT which is why some clarity would be really nice.
I understand why ODX wouldn't want to be too specific with dates. Things go wrong , delays can happen and ODX have been very good at keeping their time frames, milestones always seem to be achieved, which is unusual in my experience. In this case is March still early 2021?
I am hoping for a TT RNS later today
GLA
BB
Hi Big Jock,
Please can you ask when the Mologic Antigen TT actually started and what the expected time frame was when it started? Are his expectations with regards to that timeliness being met?
I have emailed this question yesterday, and as I know Colin and Kieron must be busy. I expect an answer in the coming weeks.
I ask because in the November presentation Colin said ODL had commenced TT and in the 24th Dec RNS it mentions "Establishing the Team" which could be very different from starting to transfer the tech which I had thought would only begin after the mologic CE approval.
From the RNS 24th Dec.
"As announced at the Interim results in November 2020, Omega has now established its technology transfer team and look forward to updating shareholders in the New Year on how the technology transfer and CE Mark is going, so the Company can sell the Rapid Test under Omega's "VISITECT ® brand."
Many Thanks.
BB
Upomega,
Yes I agree it has the potential to be a very valuable company, which is why I am invested. I just got the jitters today. Something does not add up in my head.
We are all excited at the thought of the large number of tests we can make, but will we have to pay to make them before we can sell them? I guess that 2 million test a week will cost around £8 million a month to make?
Kfordearp,
I will try that in the morning " Hi Colin. Just wondering how much money is in the bank? Lol
I am sure he is very busy, but maybe I will try something more subtle.
It is because I normally sit and watch while the price slides down rather than selling, then buying back in cheaper. An example is between Christmas and New year, I thought the TT would take a while but the general concensus was that TT had commenced in November and would likely complete In very early January. So in hindsight I should have sold and brough back in at the low 50s.
I didn't sell when the price was over a pound, as an order was expected any day soon. Also didn't sell prior to the last placing, all examples of times when I thought about it could have increased the shares I hold with investing any extra monies.
I am clearly an excellent hindsight trader........
I can't understand how we are going to make 2 million test a week without an income. It will cost £2 million a week to make 2million test a week? £8 mill a month, makes no sense. Walbrook have previously said there are no NDAs. I don't think CK is foolish enough to keep spending with out sales. So what are we missing?
Hi,
Does anyone have a opinion about this? Other than that I have an agenda? I am just trying to understand.
Looking at the October presentation ODX had £7 million in the bank on the 30th of September.
Looking at a June presentation the increase in manufacturing from 200,000 tpw to 1million tpw was expected to be £1.9million. Note that was 1 million test per week at the time not 2 million tpw.
So that leaves £5 million, although not all of the 1.9 million may have been spent yet, we still have 2 months until April. But orders will have been placed and they may have had to pay for machinery up front?
They have been making tests in October, November and December, I guess around 2 million tests would have been made at an average of around 200,000 tpw.
In January they should have made another 2 million tests. We know they have income from RTC of around £250,000
We know that an RTC test costs around 75p per test to produce, other tests, I suspect are higher, say an average of £1.00 per test?
So £5.25 million less £4 million(tests made) = £1.25 million
Looks like in the previous 6 months( Octobervpresentation) they made 2 million profit from other sales . So if we add hald of that for the last 3 months, they would have around £2.25m in the bank.
Hopefully we have made and sold 3 million Visitect antibody tests at over £3.00 each and banked £9 million? Or have we got 9 million quids worth of stock on the shelves? Waiting for an order?
I also know they have other incomes from other tests.
I also know that not every sale would generate an RNS but to my knowledge there have been no reported large orders for Visitect? If the RTC order for 175,000 (+25% of future orders) tests was price sensitive and RNS'd, sales of Visitect should also be RNS'd?
I feel that as no sales figures have been disclosed, nobody knows? Even a tweet would help...
Typically in my businesses (Construction) we often get paid 30-60 day after delivery. What about ODX? Payment up front? Payment on delivery? So how long before the cash starts to get low?
This is what I do not understand. Am I way off the mark?
If anyone can shed some light rather than shouting me down, I would appreciate it.
I do hope we get TT and sales soon, I just want to understand the position better.
Thanks
BB
Sky monkey,
Thinking it through, from presentations last year they were expecting to be making 200,000 RTC test a week. So thats spending £150,000 per week making those tests £600,000 per month. Planned income of £1.2 per month.
So my thoughts are they are ok at the moment but not indefinitely and we assume they are manufacturing at full speed and spending big every week.
Obviously any Orders can change this in a flash.
What are your thoughts?
BB
repurpossed
Merchant Banker,
I do respect your knowledge on these matter but regarding point 2 .I remember the speeding ticket. They wouldn't let the price rise because of the planned placing at 40p at the time.
I hope that this time its very different I know they have positively stated they have the funds. I think they have repurchased Littleport for the Elisa tests, so they will have spent money there.
Building projects can get out of hand. And they were expecting 9 million profit from the framework.
On a positive they were only planning on making 200,000 test per week so expected income from that framework is only down £150,000.00 per week.
I guess that answers my own fears.
GLA
BB
Hi All LTH,
Do you think that during the presentations toward the end of last year. The FD (can't remember his name) would have been thinking that toward the end of Jan they would have had no further sales from the framework? The frame work was worth around 9 million in profit.
Genuine question. Does that now increase the risk of ODX needing to raise fund? I know they may potentially have other agreements soon.
This is not a deramp but a genuine question.
Your thoughts, along with any evidence please.
P.S. I held through the last placing, but I wish I had sold then bought back at sub 40p.
Thanks BB
"Am I wrong but all this MRHA news is for the 10|% of our potential output. This leave that 10% for more profit eg £2.5 instead of 75p. We also we now have our own processing lab.. Am I wrong?"
You are correct, but we had a framework agreement for £19million ish @ 50 % profit and now we only have a potential to secure contracts or agreement at a potentially greater profit margin.
We need another agreement or sales contract as we seem to have nothing at the moment.
It seems we or our partners can't sell anything either, as the Gov still have first dibs or the clause still stands that Ciga can't sell until after the 14th of Feb.
The TT for the visitect antigen test, which is expected early 2021 has not been completed so we can't sell or make any of them either..
So I looks like we just have 100 people not making anything and not selling anything.. it makes no sense at all!
We are missing something!
If we have sold either 175,000 or 250,000 rtc tests recently. What else are they making in ALVA? I think if everything progressing on target they should be making 500,000 per week now? Visitect Antibody tests? Screen4 couldn't supply me with 25 and gave me a refund.
I expect some news soon, as I dread the closing price on the 13th of Feb if we haven't had TT and we havent got any other orders in place .
Perhaps TT tomorrow to raise the spirits? It should be soon depending on what "commenced" meant on the 30th November.
Increasingly frustrated , but I think it will worth the wait!
GLA
BB
"Yes"
So we lose £18million of orders but there plenty of jam tomorrow?
Hopefully there are more sale avenues outside the framework.
Any order would be nice.
Fingers crossed for TT this week.
BB