Member Info for BaysilHope

When trying to value Zama, Lord Browne will understand - Joke, the unitisation deal with Pemex is key i.e agreement of reservoir boundary calculations, they could have held out for years and frustrated any deal on Zama, that's when my ears picked up, no amount of drilling could achieve that agreement, iit is transformational for the development of the asset - its like settling a boundary dispute with a neighbour - priceless. So that said its Offshore so higher capex, but its low op costs per slide, there no OWC so we don't know the true extent of the find, tax regime seems fair good API, but our 25% will be slightly discounted and need clarity of tax. So say PMo get 25% of 800m at $5-6/barrel Net of tax $1bn IMO DYOR needs more drilling and research on the rest of the block mind you with other leads, THIS IS ONE LEAD IN A BIG BLOCK , PMO could have a royalty deal remaining - upside huge. I'll shut up now. Knackered. No doubt they are in talks now IMO.

Lord Browne one of the UK's greatest Oil man in my opinion transformational head of BP 1999+ does not buy pups, if the is squaring up this deal pre merger they need a scale asset to kick start growth, one worthy of an oil MAJOR, Zama is a world class asset and re read my post below the FT news article, I alluded to the fact that DEA being too small for Zama , not post Wintershall merger, they will exercise pre emption rights on PMO and we will get a TUMP of cash FFS, smell the coffee. Lord Browne always sees value and quality and PMO is in the right place at the right time. HNY The Times article is the wrong way around - the article should read about the DEA Wintershall merger and their plans for Zama. FFS Times are Deceptacons - Hold and add on retracement. Patience will see the truth win out. Under valued be Fecked.

This is Why News - DEA is modest but the merger with Wintershall massive, they could buy Zama out - FT Article 4th Dec Quote Lord Browne’s DEA to buy Sierra Oil and Gas German oil and gas producer looks to expand foothold in Mexico ahead of Wintershall merger DEA, the German oil and gas producer chaired by former BP chief John Browne, will on Wednesday announce plans to buy Mexico’s Sierra Oil and Gas in the country’s largest upstream oil M&A deal since the liberalisation of the sector. This is in line with the bigger end of the deals we’ve done?.?.?.?It will be very important to continue the growth of the company,” Lord Browne said, adding that DEA would have to put “at least a billion” dollars behind Sierra. The transaction — which according to people familiar with it is valued at about $500m — will expand DEA’s foothold in the Mexico as it looks to high-growth regions ahead of a multibillion-euro merger with rival Wintershall next year, which is set to create Europe’s largest independent oil and gas producer.The acquisition of Sierra will bring with it interests in six exploration blocks across 9,400 square kilometres, including a 40 per cent stake in Zama, one of the world’s largest shallow water discoveries, estimated to hold 400m-800m barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and set to begin production in the next five years.DEA, which is owned by LetterOne, the investment vehicle of Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman, has struggled to gain access to the lucrative US shale market, after its attempts were blocked by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (Cfius) due to its ownership. We cannot get into the US. Cfius prevents us. We tried,” said Lord Browne, who led BP for 12 years until 2007. “We’re not going to try and jump through a brick wall. It can’t be done.”But Mexico, which liberalised its oil and gas sector in 2013, provides a strong alternative, according to the company. DEA already operates the Ogarrio onshore oilfield in a partnership with state producer Pemex, with an output of about 10,000 boe a day.“We like Mexico a lot. It’s got a lot of potential,” said Lord Browne. “It is a place with great hydrocarbon potential. It’s got infrastructure — it’s not a brand-new start-up .?.?. and there’s a great labour force.”“We are investing in places that are capable of growth. We’re not interested in swapping dollars for production as it is today. It’ll be a big and efficient beast on the market. It will be the largest independent, by a long way, in Europe, and one of the biggest in the world,” said Lord Browne.End That's Why Zama is KEY HNY FFS this is why the shorters are hiding Lord Browne who's Roy Franklins best mucker - The Times is a distraction technique to avoid this news. GLA I'm with Lord Browne and not SOL.. Zama's Key

JDS - MOL is our Catcher Partner OLD news but this makes sense down the road for tax etc - Quote Premier Oil is interested in increasing its 50% interest in the Catcher North Sea oil field that produced first oil in December, CEO Tony Durrant told Reuters on Thursday, after the news agency reported - citing banking sources - that Hungary’s Mol is planning to sell its 20% stake in the oil field. Also MOL is getting out of the North Sea altogether. news stating their disposal we would have pre emption rights and could do a deal Q4 maybe. JDStandard abbv's FCF is Free Cash flow, FFS is a swear words for Feck sake, DEA are our Zama partner after the Sierra deal, In my Opinion IMO, HNY Happy New Year, MC Mkt Cap GLA good luck all. RNS is our reg news FA Feck all Hope that helps. What I hate is everytime TD moves us forward, the greedy want to rip it down - PMO is turning the corner, for example you hear ,the scare of rising interests, talk us down but in reality will be off set by $0.8bn debt reduction since 12mth ago, plus the huge Refin costs are in the past. H1 2019 is the first time we have a clear run at PURE trading with no exceptional items holding us back. That's why the -ve news is thrown into the ring, the shorters are losing their grip on PMO and a Zama deal is curtains.

Laidback - remember this many times on the Refin and Andy P, where TD would have to get to the press with an RNS on SP weakness where deceptacon Press speculations tried to kill the SP - those days are getting further behind us. I'll go for the 5-10% or enough so the MO of the deceit has been achieved. The difference this time, the company is delivering on trading and probably wrong footed a few, plus the rise form 52p. We are producing +90kbopd Rev +$130m per mth , that FCF and no capex will get down sub $2bn in 6mths and this is THE week BEFORE ZAMA so why timing this weekend for the comment? bids not in until end of JAN FFS, next week TOO late for this scam. Anyway Full year results will be ace given H2 and further RNS's should support the SP. PMO - North Sea yes for Tax brakes but they can do that with MOL. All these US bids Chev Conoco leaves MOL alone and more attractive IMO. Elgin F 3.9% is doable from FCF nice add on +5kboed - so Jealousy I think, we are on track and that does not lend itself to shorting. POO only one way albeit slowly. So Suck it up for the first 3-4 days and then add, ZAMA update will be a beast I believe and a further step closer to monetisation of this world class asset. DEA has a MC of FA, production 120kbopd, the block lends itself all day long to the majors, I don't think we will even get a chance to develop it, it will be gone thru a sale. So Shorters need to close and get it. HNY GLA. IMO DYOR.

Agree GS & also Mrd5432, the appraisal will run to Q4 3 drills, Elgin F say $60m from FCF 3.9% of the field nice earner use Tax credits and the rumour deflates short term SP for Shorts to clear. As you state no need for a haircut today and as sankeys states no OWC, we could be understating potential recoverable by 10-15% maybe +50m deeper . This story was muted months ago and given the pain of the CBH debacle, the economics of an RI wouldn't work on $1.5bn but part of $120m then maybe. As the Cat would say' OH Baby baby its a wild world, its hard to get by just upon a smile!

Found it TU Nov 18 - • Zama discovery (Mexico): pre-unitisation agreement approved; delivery of rig taken with first appraisal well to spud later this month. Absolutely fundamental, without that PMO would be tongue tied. gLA Out now.

PMO is discounted as we are Catcher reliant, growth dependent upon future projects and we can't bolster any meaningful capex given debt reduction commitments. A Zama sale would destroy that discounted valuation IMO or even the possibility would. So the Uni'' cation deal (reservoir borders) with Pemex IMO was a massive pre sale hurdle, probably THE most difficult in getting the chunk of reservoir market ready, this 1st drill is one monster step closer of 3. As soon as the market realise we could sell this for $1bn, up we go as acquisitions become a reality and the debt economic straight jacket is materially lifted for corporate options. IMO DYOR GLA

Given strong H1 cash flow there is enough cash to reduce debt first and probably get Chevrons 3.9% of Ellgin Franklin, which would not suit Chrysaor which is focused on the large producing assets , but is a stable producer for PMO and adds to our current position in a great play, min capex, strong reserves nice little fit for no effort and Chevron is NOT the operator - ideal for PMO Quote,The Elgin-Franklin area is made up of four gas-condensate fields – Elgin, Franklin, Glenelg and West Franklin – located in the Central North Sea, 130 miles (240 kilometres) east of Aberdeen, in water depths of approximately 305 feet (93 metres). All fields are operated by Total and Chevron North Sea Limited holds a 3.9% non-operated working interest in Elgin, Franklin and West Franklin. Chevron does not have interest in the Glenelg Field. End its probably why we are +90kbopd to get enough cash to buy this and still hit debt down. Win Win for a crafty deal.

I'm sorry to hear that about your blackout, you make a very valued point, no one can just suck up pressure and stress without some kind of pressure release valve. We all have different coping mechanisms, mines too much Abbott and the odd sing along. When I was younger sport did it for me - the squash ball became the focus of my frustration and anger. Controlling stress is a very difficult thing and it does manifest itself in your health - no doubt about that. I wish you the very best. GL Thx for your post, you make a very important point indeed.

Samroy, excellent post well said, you can see that # Patience ' quality played out by JW and Amer in their stalking of cheap acquisitions, taking their time, weigh up the opposition and opportunity, then strike at the appropriate time, even create the wait as with RH, utilising delays exhausts the impatient. Totally agree, it can be difficult can be very frustrating, but that's the game. The Business objectives are understood by the MM and PI's, they have more patience and can exact out longer lead times that apply to fruition of projects and they are expert at robbing us if we are impatient or distracted by their games and wild fluctuations in the SP using exaggerated short term data blips . GLA See thru it, as long as there is REAL Value in the investment , if there isn't that value move on.

Don't get fooled into playing it. When they want something that bad, the MM will discount and show little interest so you pass the value on to eager II's and interested parties hiding in the wings, ONLY and ONLY if you have something of REAL value. As the BB said sticky fingers, hold , add on retracement. GLA What a fecking liberty 19.45p, 19p and I'd add more FFS. Only one winner here, patience!!! Won't be long.

Geo101, I agree that Zama and block 7 has more in the tank and only suggest punting it if Block 30 proves up as I said, but if Block 30 is a successful candidate, then IMO sacrificing Zama allows PMO to de-risked SL where we have more control and % in play, could be a hedged trade off move. Besides if you could monetise 400MMboe say at $4 what would you get +$1 bn Net cash. Remember there are not that many world class discoveries 'Potentially Up for Sale' . Oil majors need these feasts to continue their MO, as they say $1bn in the hand helps 4 projects out in the bush and acquisitions. Only an idea, but would DE-Risk PMO and all projects and fast track growth, only to help Block 30 come on line, albeit smaller but still material to PMO. Nice problem to have. IMO Olliesky, in answer to your question, its one way the MM's play these matters out, they see the long term value -trap it away and leak it out slowly for stake building. E.G take Amer, they've just landed their Zama - CPO5 smaller but still a National find in Col, Amer SP 20p, when net to Amer could be +2-300MMboe if the entire field proves up as one contiguous, but II's stake building with discounted shares as with PMO. Furthermore PMO is front loaded into terms of project maturity or time to bring to market, if we could use part of a $1bn to acquire mid life projects this would prop up current production profiles and reserves, that would value us up, I feel this does hold PMO back at the Mo.
The market will hold this down as long as they can pass ENOUGH discounted value to II's and/ or interested parties, whilst PI's and other get fed up due to longer lead times, but when all is ready, a transformational re-rate happens, I'd take the +$1bn and FID 2 more for the price of one and by the Q4, debt down and balance repaired to boot, win win. IMO DYOR. It would allow acquisitions also as Pleebs stated so you could bolster IMMEDIATE output, immediate reserves and preserve trading performance not so reliant on longer lead time future plays to support growth. The output balance of future, current and immediate projects becomes more balanced, today we are too reliant on future projects to deliver trading results and we are heavily discounted for it IMO - forgetting debt a second. IMO DYOR I'd like to get MOL as a discount with SL, as the strong solid MOL output and reserves helps also DE Risk SL END . HNY

Makes sense - timing is key - Quote Premier, together with its joint venture partners DEA (operator, 40 per cent) and Sapura Energy (30 per cent), has been awarded Block 30 in the shallow water Sureste basin, a proven and prolific hydrocarbon province in the Gulf of Mexico. Block 30 is located directly to the south west of Premier’s world-class Zama discovery and to the north of the Amoca oil field. Premier has identified numerous material leads and prospects on Block 30 in the Tertiary clastic plays, typical of the Sureste Basin. Several of the prospects identified exhibit DHIs (direct hydrocarbon indicators) on existing 3D seismic, significantly de-risking the potential of this block. These anomalies are similar to those seen at the Zama and Amoca oil fields.The outcome of this highly competitive licensing round is a fantastic success for Premier and its partners. We are delighted to have been awarded Block 30, the most contested block in the Round. END
Unlike Seal Lion, if you can replicate A Zama, then sell it and move on to Block 30, the next potential sixeable target - 'cake and eat spring to mind', as Pleebs stated the vultures are circling for a reason, Blackrock, Baillie & GS plus DEA again in the mix. Q now is whats Zama worth. Win Win. GLA Selling Zama, if Block 30 proves up - we only gain, lose nought, but could progress other projects far quicker and DE - RISKED the entire PMO portfolio - could start happening in Q4 2019. GLA

Thx for the post, great insight as to the marco - possibilities here, find your thinking very interesting, learnt a lot.
Keep updating please when oppo arises. This suits RF down to the...

Posted this on wrong BB - no glasses idiot, H2 2018 Catcher was 26.5kbopd from June to Oct 18, then 33-34k Nov Dec. H1 2019 total output starts at say 90kbopd all in, that's Rev +$800m for H1 , if POO average $65, that should generate FCF +$450m in H1 of which the majority will reduce debt, Debt could be below $2bn in 6 mths, as most of the $290m capex is later in the year. H1 profits before tax, could be in the region of $240m IMO DYOR, PMO starts to evolve into a different risk profile business and starts reducing its massive volatility to POO. Interest costs start to reflect that H2. This year should be clean with regard to material cost anomalies that always seem to dent our trading results. EBITDA 2019 nearly $1Bn if Rev hits +$1.6bn. GLA Slow re-rate Methinks throughout 2019 that should underpin the SP given POO remains stable above $65 throughout. Fingers crossed as always. One thing this year we should bury the banking covenant ghost for good, baring any ceck ups.

Not a stunt didn't have my glasses - really sorry BB please forgive my stupid error. What a dick!!

H2 2018 Catcher was 26.5kbopd from June to Oct 18, then 33-34k Nov Dec. H1 2019 total output starts at say 90kbopd all in, that's Rev +$800m for H1 , if POO average $65, that should generate FCF +$450m in H1 of which the majority will reduce debt, Debt could be below $2bn in 6 mths, as most of the $290m capex is later in the year. H1 profits before tax, could be in the region of $240m IMO DYOR, PMO starts to evolve into a different risk profile business and starts reducing its massive volatility to POO. Interest costs start to reflect that H2. This year should be clean with regard to material cost anomalies that always seem to dent our trading results. EBITDA 2019 nearly $1Bn if Rev hits +$1.6bn. GLA Slow re-rate Methinks throughout 2019 that should underpin the SP given POO remains stable above $65 throughout. Fingers crossed as always. One thing this year we should bury the banking covenant ghost for good, baring any ceck ups.

2018 should end with Net Assets $1bn chasing Net Debt £2.33BN gearing 233%, FCF for 2019 on prod'n guidelines should not be held back by Capex, nor legacy debt costs. Capex $290m ish and more towards H2 so Q1 all cash can go reducing debt - on sales of $1.6bn FCF +$850m, with POO $67 ish and net profit after tax $0.5bn, plan is to end 2019 Net debt sub $1.9bn, therefore Net assets up $0.55bn in 2019 to $1.55bn versus, Net Debt down $0.45bn to $1.9bn = $1bn Balance sheet repair improvement . So end of 2019 gearing - falls to 130% a transformational change. Re rating and the interest savings should start to kick in year end. SP is POO dependent obviously and so are the forecasts but forecast EPS next year +45p so on a multiple of say 4 if POO is $67 that that's £1.80 with far more in the tank and a more robust, less risky investment, the bank covs a distant memory . No doubt The II's will be chasing this over time as the investment case proves up with the results, slowly as POO improves. What a great start though - Well down BOD great show. GN GLA

Mthly sales now hitting say $125m for H1 2019 - cash gen+ve +20% over 2018 run rate , the strong end H2 to 2018 should produce some good reading for 2018 full year figures , hopefully no impairment and taking a +$70m book profit on Babbage sale and hopefully minimal refin legacy costs, add the tax credits good improvement to Net Assets as well. EPS - say 40p/ share haven't finished the calcs yet, current PE 2 forward 1.2 - I know POO is everything here but POO mid 60's steadies the ship. Add Zama to come and should be a solid 2 months to watch for. Can see debt coming down Qtr by Qtr nicely, 2019 reduced Covenants 2.5 - 2.7 not an issue - Come on KSA + need Shale to ease next 2 mths GLA