Member Info for BaysilHope

Sorry I meant Mexico bad for US energy companies and At risk $200bn Capex in Oil. US are panicked to keep this Bad boy under $100, Saudi can't just add +2m and why would they keel over, in part don't destroy demand but play the Aramco card to max and sweat more IPO float out of Donald and Russia enjoys and Indian summer - in more ways than one. Next 2 months Work in progress we will get there. MM's will milk the despair as you expect until that bit of game changing news hits. Indico when done is a company maker - up dip and there are acquisitions in progress both sides of the river next 6 weeks more news. Keep the faith, drink a lot of water and walk slow in the market. HNY..

Libya's problems are deep rooted, Force Maj, for months. Canada Oil sands +400kbopd July, Vz, Shale hand cuffed, Iran to come, Suaid maz 11m = +1m, Russia maybe +400kbop not in Winter and now Mexico elections impact for US Energy firms and the 2014 Energy reforms also fuelled by Trump's criticism of Mexico. Quote' The campaign is being closely watched by U.S. energy companies that have operated in Mexico since the country’s 2014 energy reform. That reform was an opening that allowed foreign energy companies to bid on offshore blocks in the Gulf of Mexico, onshore oil and gas development, wind and solar production and distribution and electricity generation contracts. At a rally in suburban Mexico City, presidential front-runner López Obrador told the standing-room only crowd of 10,000 plus people that changes in Mexican energy policy haven't produced lower prices for gasoline and electricity. López Obrador has called for a return to more state regulation of the energy industry, a prospect that could jeopardize billions of dollars in current and projected foreign investment in the sector.
“The country hasn't gained a thing,” Godinez said as he described what he sees as the current failings of Mexico's energy reform. Though reformers promised to narrow the gap between energy costs in the U.S. and Mexico, energy data suggest Godinez pays approximately 20 percent more for his electricity than a business does in the United States. The energy reform’s proponents are confident the benefits will be realized eventually. The leverage US has over KSA = Aramco IPO and all this must start to worry China, you can't produce squat without energy security, Oil and its price. Get the Tariffs sorted and POO +$90 next 2months as Canada outage directly hits Cushing. GN News this week and go forward. Long wait. HNY

Thanks for the insight, why management still tell less than half the story baffles me. Still, as you state the Chiritzo pump key, hence why build it before other investments i.e they got planning for that before N sands, which makes sense but never properly explained. We have a Feecking Monkey Chimp like PR network & profile, the Plum has to go and get to +$1bn business. Back to foottieee that French Kid M' Plan or something is mega fast Jesus. GLA

Yes, Only answerNew Broker appointed - Defence against attack - New Broker Fend Off an hostile takeover or maybe help it ????? GN Can't sleep.

At the end of the day Truth will out. But The Plum GC orchestrated a rights issue 2016 AND NEVER PAID A DIVIDEND OR ACKNOWLEDGED THE GESTURE. !! Nasty taste sweet pea. II's have long memories . We Need Alex to smooth over this as trust HAS BEEN BROKEN NO DOUBT in this relationship and a new broom new broker , new succession in place - IMO listening to GC Jan 18 Delivery, misplaced, Arrogant beyond ability, lack of respect for PI's & II's the quicker this Charlie is gone the better, this is his play thing and not an investment vehicle for serious growth, no idea. F Off now.. Please

Take our cash out, say $60m, our EV Enterprise Value is $120m or 10p/share how come we still trade 15P FFS??????????, Exclude $40m Value for the OBA and our operations are bonkers Cheap ' So says the MM's Boggie Nights big prick tactics.Quote First Jive Dude: Quote NEW BROKER - Shiiiiit, maaaaan. That honky muf' be messin' mah old lady... got to be runnin' cold upside down his head, you know? Second Jive Dude: Hey home', I can dig it. Know ain't gonna lay no mo' big rap up on you, man!

Sorry really last point All News -ve Last 5-6 mths - where's the PR manager or are they talking this SP down but Why now RH is 4% FFS we are missing info. Like reinforced concert - Missed targets constant, no High line strategic vision, for acquisitions' JV's or so on. I find this strange given the make up of the BOD and the strength of character there. Understand Profits may undershoot 2018 but that's in the Sp weighted in ^ that's not with $3bn debt. FFS Not right - can't explain am keeping cash for protection or oppo HNY

As early Triassic mammals said it is always darkest before the Impact or change for the BIG guy, great for the underling. AMER SP is testimony to the lack of advancement and continued lack of Scale, our output say 6kbopd same 2012 despite territory gains, forget all else. How do we get to +12kbopd, yes drilling - but with long lead time of which 2 are with other operators decision dependent. ---- or attack and acquire. This current market news is in limbo for reasons stated before. I Think we get Bank loan and gear up, but that's an unknown not a known known. HNY News will erupt next 3 months. Breakout. GLA GN

first Off Football. End Second, the MM's are enjoying the play time before any news, deal with it, on a larger note I have suggested the options available to the BOD with lack of info - to calm nerves- for a major funding event, AMER CURRENT BUSINESS STRATEGIC FUNDING OPTIONS- NEW BROKER :
1. Share Ownership Mar 18 - In the Background Amer share ownership 15% not in Public hands II’s 44% > 3% OF WHICH RH IS 4% - base data – No dividend policy, Down to Alex Snow not the Plum to win over.
2. Reverse Acquisition/War Chest – buy into something huge/material for Market gain i.e Ecuador Gente Oil? Like PMO did with Eon except PMO had $3bn debt insolvent and Force majoure to survive, AMER not in that position – it is a predator not a target – Why - Note 1 above has a well ingrained defensive Shareholding and $60m War Chest.
3. Equity Issue – Unlikely at current SP dilution and 15p and falling , not impossible unless a huge forward projection or acquisition but NOT clever – Use Cash & Debt first . when trading forecast is long lead time
4. Convertible Bond Issue – Yes quick to raise needs brokers fix Conversion rate into 2-3 years future at higher SP good move for attractive opportunities. Great vehicle for AIM and smaller E & P#s see Hurricane & PMO.
5. Joint Ventures – Already in place with certain blocks – great deals with P Amaz & Col – unlikely to further current activity.
6. Bid Acquisitions require funding & E & P – Yes both in Ecu & Col Put 8 – cash and debt/ or CBH route. .
7. Disposals – to raise cash for Acquisition – very unlikely, have large E & P runway.
8. New Brokers Appointment – A distraction technique. Yes.

We are in a good place, all you can ask - is this the bottom fro the SP ??. Once that is secured - End of Sports, we are a few coughs away from that but not long. Hold and be patient. GLA HNY. Knackered.

Cheer PI's up ish Song - Para bailar la PetroAmaz se necesita
una poca de gracia, Yo no soy marinero, por ti sere, Intracampos necesito para Amerisur
Cuyabeno, Cuyabeno – a Hugo Ruales Si RODA system,
Ay, arriba y arriba y arriba iré
Yo no soy marinero
Yo no soy marinero, AMER capitán
GLA - We are in a Stephen King novel Langoliers where the space is disappearing - Last post depressed.GNA

Last point got it, MM's magnifying short term data shortfall of any news and prod'n levels - Full year projection based upon last Months hiccup. and NO drilling success next 15 years. Sounds cheap to me as the BOD have bought in. It's the frustration thats their play - to beat it add when it gets cheap for a LTH. Slow and patient - like my ex wife. GLA HNY

Last point - MM's playing the pre determined wear you down, Sum of ALL FEARS Card, we are going under FFS bolares - not moving up with POO deliberate maniputaion, low shot, backstadtrous to the PI, this IS AN opportunity to lower again my average, NOT in a rush, as June's output could be the Ides of March - Joke not, and no prediction, still our news should peak late Aug and definitely Sept 18 - so ' Quote H G Wells Guess ish ' These MM creatures viewed AMer with envious eyes and slowly but surely, they drew their plans against us. Work with the tidal landscape Grasshopper, and to under estimate a foe is to concede control, at one's peril. HNY GLA

Our renewed investment commitment in Col & Ecu plus increased location position (and scale IN TIME - Put 12 Terracho &Tacayoocho whatever etc longer term we are the right side of matters must elevate our bidding status, even if only for marginal gains in Ecu and Chirtizo pump a big starter for 10, with RODA upgrades not yet announced. The news embargo for bidding and deal making is deafening. GN

There is no doubt AMER are caught in a sea of change, on many fronts, PUT 8 takeover, Ecu, Elections, FARC, ONGC Ramadan, so with the boat taking on water with power draining. But surviving these trails and tribulations, some of which are Marco Economic could bare huge fruit offerings . I never realised the radical Power consolidation shift taking place in Ecuador Govt Oil industry - sonsolidation , I gave a factor of 3 not 9. Quote 'As a result of the State's organizational measures and in order to reduce its size, in line with the austerity announced, on May 15, 2018 the President of the Republic issued Executive Decree N° 399, which provided for the merger of the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy, the Ministry of Mining and the Secretariat of Hydrocarbons into the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, to be renamed the "Ministry of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources"1. These mergers shall be completed within 90 days. As a result of this presidential decision, the Ministry of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources and its minister, Carlos Pérez-García, will have important responsibilities in the future development of Ecuador. Among these responsibilities, the Ministry is committed to recovering the space lost by Ecuador in its capacity to attract direct private investment in the oil exploration, exploitation and refining sector and, to this end, is seeking to ensure that the selection processes for investors are once again formalized through the tender process and that they allow for free competition on equal terms. As I said earlier - sorry to repeat again this a SEA change of approach and there will be delays for the betterment of our investment. - Oil & Gas 2018 Fields: This process is underway and is intended to attract private investment for the Cuyabeno-Sansahuari, Oso, Yuralpa, Blanca-Vinita and Amistad fields, located in the provinces of Orellana, Sucumbíos, Napo and El Oro. Fingers crossed. GLA. It's hot damn hot - Robin Williams, crotch pot cooking.

Soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! POO One way as soon as Main land supplies threatened - Bear Market Dead - Next 3 months. HNY DYOR. GN

Simple As - IRAN sanctions is the Go - To for POO - now that Canada will be collapsing July with with VZ - will take 12-18month lead lime for Permian Shale to grow - long enough to float Aramco which puts shale 18mths behind the earnings curve and 18 months into Aramco Divestment into Chemicals, if the is limited Trade Tarrifs. And if China relies on IRAN for Oil then major trade conflict and Oil Oligarchs win!!! Oil hungry China - wasn't it Japan 1939 & Pearl Harbour - but no nukes then and not China financing US Deficit. FFS Game of thrones - zero sum game in trade demand destruction, need a rebalancing for sustainability - China know that, they can't absorb the world trading surplus forever and need to relax foreign inward investment and pay for Copyright and IP infringement - like the Japs. ish. HNY Big Draw - Canada offline - WATCH THE YANKS BLEED - THEY WILL SHRINK WITH VZ - all felt at Cushing. Game on. Not $26 POO NOW SWEET PEA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My fore note before main article -- read into the news - Shale pipeline Capital Service personnel Issues/Canada issues will hit Cushing hard that hurts US & volatility of POO could hit $90 short term IMO DYOR and it will fall again - watch volatility
MAIN API Quote TONIGHT ' Oil Prices Rise After API Reports Major Crude Draw By Julianne Geiger - Jun 26, 2018, 3:47 PM CDT
As oil prices continues to fall, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a major draw of 9.228 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending June 22 compared to analyst expectations that this week would see a much smaller draw in crude oil inventories of 2.572 million barrels.
Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw of 3.016 million barrels of crude oil.
The API reported another buildup in gasoline inventories for week ending June 22, this week in the amount of 1.152 million barrels. This was close to analyst expectations of a build of 1.313 million barrels.
Crude oil prices spiked today on the back of anticipated oil export disruptions in Libya after the Libyan National Army said it had passed control of the country’s oil ports to a non-officially recognized National Oil Corporation affiliated with the eastern government of the country based in Benghazi. Further support to oil prices come as the United States continues to pressure countries to cease buying oil from Iran. By 3:40pm EDT, WTI was trading at $70.43, up $2.35 (+3.45%). Brent crude was trading at $76.15, up $1.60 (+2.15%). Related: WTI-Brent Spread Narrows On Canada Oil Crisis US crude oil production stagnated for the first week in many months, reaching 10.9 million bpd in the week ending June 08, holding fast for the week ending June 15, according to the EIA.
Distillate inventories saw a build this week of 1.785 million barrels, compared to an expected build of 774,000 barrels, while inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, site fell again this week, by 1.741 million barrels. Tomorrow we will be 14.95p but not for too long. I will add before next TU, POO will surge - forget Amer - on fundamentals Oil knackered especially with VZ and strong demand, US will start to panic with the holiday season TODAY!!! Hope we stay 15p so I can add next 4 months. HNY

I've written a stripped down Algorithm plotting the precise movement of the distorted SP over the next 4 months, taking into account the Cos % of poor June update, rain, President elections, BOD incompetence at RNS production +115 percent forward projection POO, maintenance and discounted by MM skew -4.75p |||| . SP= {X +Y'n x power of 2} $POO 75-90 > 59.6 percent less 4 inches of rain, civil unrest Cos 0.13.5 ~ E ^ transport Indico ONGH fatigue 3.7 weeks all factored and 15p flat for 4 months, even saying that IT IS Feecking cheap taking a 4 month view. This could well be under a tad of pressure but on a macro level it seems the Oil outages just build > then trade tariffs skew, Libya, Canada losing 400kbopd in July, shale limited. More patience required for developments to unfold - out in the garden Last post . GLA. Thank God MBS understands Demand Destruction and with Russia have eased +1m back into output, that will seem insufficient in 6 months when IRAN falls off a cliff and Aramco floats. HNY Sun Time.

New Quote - Same point The mature onshore oilfields include the Cuyabeno, Oso and Vinita-Blanca areas at Ecuador’s Amazon region, Perez said. Those will be added to eight onshore areas in the country’s Northeast, close to the border with Colombia, under the Intracampos bidding round, whose results are expected in August.

The bids Quote - Forgive the translation -The interest of private companies to invest in four oil fields and one of natural gas will be known tomorrow (May 29, 2018). These areas are part of the round called Oil & Gas, the second that drives the Government. The public company Petroamazonas will receive bids tomorrow for the five areas that it took out last March. Among these are Blanca-Vinita, which was not awarded in the previous process of minor fields; and Cuyabeno-Sansahuari, Yuralpa, Bear and the natural gas field Friendship. - These aspects will generate private companies more confidence to work and invest in Ecuador." When dealing with productive fields, Edmundo Brown, former vice president of Petroindustrial, considered that these will be attractive for private companies, because they already have facilities and have a production greater than 5 000 barrels per day, except in Blanca-Vinita, whose production is lower (Cheap raget under PUT 12/13/14 FFS . Galárraga mentioned that in the phase prior to the presentation of offers -questions and answers- there were about 33 companies, four of them have an expectation to invest in the field of natural gas Amistad. Initially, in this process there were 68 letters of interest for Cuyabeno (17), Oso (16), Blanca-Vinita (15), Yuralpa (14) and the Amistad field (6). But not all of them passed the evaluation stage. News is August - even bottom feeding is great when you have key locations. Our pump station faith will pay off soon.. The change of broker - ties in with multiple bids which are in progress Put 8 & Ecuador. Potential Game changing times. Next three months this is a different business and the bids require silence so - as I said perfect storm on top headline moves, so SP focuses downwind. Not long, major scale up due. GLA HNY GNI