Member Info for barnaby67

At exactly this juncture my liver is worth more to science than as a tradeable asset! Going to be an interesting couple of weeks for sure. As you say current entry price only a losing position if you stay too long and the very worse outcomes follow. Struggle to see how money can’t be made from here, or if you are already in with an average anywhere around current SP!

Cheers Linton and Jim. I was under that impression also. I don’t know if you read the Tribune article, but it certainly implied to me that the BG had some decision, which the clearly stated only became relevant if oil was found in commercial quantities by the (hopefully) upcoming drills.

Don’t think the Tribune article that someone posted earlier was overly helpful as it clearly intimated that the purpose of the initial BPC drill was to establish where there were commercially recoverable amounts of oil before the BG (and its people) would decide if it would then permit production. Personally more likely some in the know have wind of placing terms.

We see an announcement this week that the 11 Oct deadline with Seadrill is knocked back to end of October by mutual agreement with the reason being that the company feels farm-in discussions will take a bit longer to conclude the best deal. Think if this week and next week passes then the SP will be heavily discounting a share issue and it would be very difficult given the limitation on the number of new shares that can be issued to raise enough to fund a two well campaign, which I think is really essential. Otherwise I struggle to see we ever hit 3p again unless we happen to hit bulls eye with the single drill bit. Existing shareholders really need a farm-in at this point or be prepared to risk existing funds on said bulls eye if they are holding for a mega return from here.

My concern is that, notwithstanding they can push the commitment date back by agreement with seadrill, there is now only 3 weeks to that agreed date. No suggestion has emerged from the AGM that concluding a deal with a major is imminent - if parties are still in data room rather than in very advanced contract negotiations (not so easy to do until you whittle down to preferred partner or partners). So the market believes at this stage it is highly likely they will need to raise funds themselves to show they are able to meet their commitments to partners. So a bit of a race to the bottom has begun with people worrying that as the price falls further the dilution will be greater than greater to raise what is a fairly well defined sum (ok depends if want to raise for more than one dart at the board). So possible they will announce fund raise imminently for the first well to stop that spiral as otherwise, with the large discount to current price for such a large (in relative terms) we could end up trebling the number of shares in issue. I hold a bit over 4m shares here and would not countenance maintaining my share of the company by buying another 8m shares unless the terms were highly attractive!!

My feeling was this was a good step to demonstrate we can launch new products but the new test, in itself, isn’t going to be monetarily transformational.

Many thanks to the author and to armatrading for posting. Much appreciated. Instinct is we won’t get much further info and outcomes from the company until much closer to the 11th (not that is very far away)!

Good spot Linton78

My sense is that is no new news to RNS this side of the AGM on Tuesday and the board just want to get all resolutions approved to see what they have to work with taking into account where discussions with all third parties are at the current time. Then have 3.5 weeks to get the package together to announce to market. 4 weeks today at the latest we will have a good sense of how exciting the next stage is going to be!

Cheers chaps for your price predictions. Tough day trying to appease an overseas regulator so retiring to a few beers in E1 and opening up the forum and seeing talk of a 20 bagger and reasoned price predictions approaching the 70-90p spectrum did warrant a smile on my part.

Hi Twix, Great that the stand-off on posting was broken. Got through an entire trading week with no messages. Bought some back last week as my portfolio felt it was missing a long lost friend with no YGEN!

Is anyone going to the AGM next Tuesday? Have to be in the IoM for business the following week so not sure if I can be asked making the trip next week solely for that purpose! Would be good to see some strength in the SP leading into the meeting.

Ps Specialist100 were you posting last summer under the pure Specialist moniker? Pre-empting your reply, As then, I enjoy reading your posts FTAOD.

Did seem like an attempt to drive the SP up ahead of a placing. If we have a circa 1bn share issue at say 2.5p to find going it along on two drills then bring it on!

It is heartbreaking to see the emerging devastation of the islands. Looks like infrastructure is massively impacted. Thoughts are with our Bahamanian friends at this time.

Suspect will move at current price +|- 2p over the next 2+ years so not really much reason to hold or dip into or out of over that time. Would love to think there is a big reason for a significant positive re-rate over that time but hard to see what it is. Have sold up and put this quantum of funds elsewhere but happy to reinvest in due course.

At so few posts by market close on a day when things are certainly hotting up!

Anyone planning to go to the AGM?

The AGM is roughly halfway between this week’s update and the 11 October so what sort of half-time team talk will Potter be able to deliver then. Hopefully we will be a couple of nice strikes up and able to coast a little in the second half rather than having to come from behind. Note the CLN also seems to be subject to DD still by the issuer. Good Potter has retained the right to totally ditch that component should attractive full farm-in or other offers be on the table. Given the binary nature of the 11/10/19 date with the rig supplier, would imagine further fund raise to tick Seadrill’s box on full funding being in place by that date should FO not be secured then they would be looking at a fairly sizeable placing that will circa double the number of shares in issue at current price (depending on what other funding options also alluded to are). Hard to see the will do a rights issue given the longer time to organise.

We will find out in next 6-7 weeks - one way or the other - and what that will mean for existing shareholders!

I cannot believe they could keep such a “gentleman’s agreement” quiet - investors (although I would assumed overjoyed if the drill was a success for the implications that would have on SP) would need to know that in terms of investment decisions between now and then (eg participating in further fund raises).

Yes, we deserve that but still very binary in terms of outcome. Next 6-7 weeks will decide our fate in that we need to complete the self funding or find a partner and hence commit on the drill contracts. At this stage not clear whether we have put in place what we have as there were no farm-out deals close or whether we have done so to fish out interested such parties that wanted too much. Good SP reaction today but clear why the rise stalled. Don’t think I would want to be pumping in more than I have at current prices until the number of routes to a poor outcome is reduced. Saying that things are now very exciting again - finally.