The governments actions and restrictions are there to slowdown the spread rate of coronavirus. In doing so the NHS and other medical services will not be overwhelmed by a fast infection flood. A slow infection rate is desirable The question is do we have to be infected to cause immunity. If no vaccine is found are we to remain in isolation forever.
Outstanding Q4 results in all aspects. I think the company has overcome most problems that were holding the share price down. One point no one in discussion is really realizing and which is very relevant to cash flow, is the unsold 19.4 thousand ounces ($30 million ) sitting in the company safety bank . Cheers
DASUT I understand your reasoning and comments . A too high out of norm production followed by one too low will always cause a furore .esp with partners/ shareholders. The aim is to try and be consistent.
DASUT What I am saying is that mines usually run according to their fundamental ability. Management set production parameters. Grade control is used to ensure an average smooth production according to that ability. Mining too much of the richer ore too soon or quickly will cause shortfalls later. You could be lucky and find new higher grade ore later. Only then can you increase production and forecasts.
Hi garyn . The high grading we are discussing is the excessive 7 - 9g/t underground ore mined (stoping) in 2016-17 This action caused a much higher (than norm) gold production for a while.....ie until it ran out.
Hi Tibbs . Mine valuation is a very complex science because there are so many variables involved. There are thousands of books and publications on the subject .Each mine is different. In my opinion high grading is the act of mining out too much (rare) high grade ore so as to temporary increase the (near) present gold production ( compered to normal planned production through grade control). The reasons for this act are many, The reason I say temporary ,is you cant usually replace the rich ore easily. This act will cause (future) inconsistency and lowering of normal production and can be detrimental to the life of the mine. ie is poor planning
Hi Tibbs, Youssef is Sammy's brother. Joseph's uncle. He rose to Capitan in the Egyptian police force ,His position in Centamin is General Manager Egyptian Operations.He definitely is an asset but I don't think he has much mining knowledge,He maybe Mine Manager but he could never be mining or u/g manager,
Hi Rebess . As I see it Centamin has lost approximately £900 million market cap in last two years . Firstly £300 million loss due to Josephs massive share sales .( 180p - 150p / share) Secondly £600 million loss due to not achieving and missguidence of future gold production figures.( 150p -90p / share.)
Hi DASUT . Hindsight is easy.The Problem of the low grade areas in the opencast being larger than expected are because the experts got their calculations wrong. ie valuation drill holes too far apart ,wrong weighting of values in relation to borehole proximity. contingency planning. etc. Low grade opencast tonnes should be sweetened with more higher grade U/G tonnes or high grade stockpiles so as to achieve a constant quarterly gold production. L4 area had lower grades than expected - is L5 area (which is presently being mined) going the same way?
HI Tibbs. Mining contractors are normally instructed / directed by company experts ie mining managers . . ton-fra-cen your 6 points are correct but not enough is reported to the public ( shareholders ) as to " who why where when ". If the grades were going higher , why is Q1 forecast output so low ? . Physical gold output can be accurately predicted if your valuation systems are correct and you have the right experts directing and controlling mining / mine operations ..
Im staying in because as a mining man I still do see very good fundamentals.However there are 4 lshittys I must accept with this share..1 Bad investor communications.( We ask for the truth )( Morcombe leaving? etc) 2 A public company seemingly swayed by a family dynasty.(Our Chairman) 3 As it a equal profit partner a heavy government influence. (they are not affected at all by the share price). 4 Only in Africa ( I have the experience as I come from there).
Centamin must be the worst communicative company on the LSE. Their recent statement " The Mining and Grade control problems were behind us " are not true. .The yearly production target pre profit share was 420 -450 000 oz. After profit split the company then boasted it could in future reach a yearly output of 600 000 oz > If al the recent problems were behind us , then why are the present 1st quarter and yearly output forecasts SO LOW ? I don't think the the only problem is the low ore grade from the opencast.I think there is a known U/G mining problem that is being kept from us. ie A wrong high grade cut off value causing wrong stope valuation Only.one mine entrance causing restricted planning to access different value stopes to effect a constant ROM grade control. Ground stability problems. There shouldn't be problems , these people are meant to be "truthful" professionals.
A very good report. 2018 Q4 gold production is on a par with the Quarterly average of 2016. ( 2016 was our highest year production 551000 oz) Looks like the worst is behind us now. Phone discussion. Adding more pillars to the U/G stopes will prevent stope ore dilution but also slightly reduce ore reserves. The lower U/G development grades are a necessity to finely delineate the edges of payable ore zones. (increasing ore reserves) Also talk of a new mine/U/G manager? Hope the board is not too conservative with the 2019 production forecast. atb
Rebess I think Josef's resignation offer was a red herring move to maybe soften the impact his massive sale of shares at a extraordinary high price. He seems reluctant to let-go which could be a good indicator . Hope he behaves himself now and re purchases some of his sold shares.