Member Info for barchid

Actuary/ade

I had quite a significant holding in this trust for quite some time but ultimately the lack of capital growth encouraged me to sell about two thirds of them recently after their recent short lived spurt up as I was coming to the same conclusions, though I was never involved in HFEL.

Generally Aberdeen (or whatever they call themselves now) trusts have been a sad shadow of their glory days especially compared to the likes of Allianz trusts, for instance.

LWHL

Agreed, in fact I have always thought, & after watching this weeks webinar my feelings were reinforced, that this is a well run business in a cyclical industry which is probably at the bottom of its cycle, hence an excellent tuck away.

Taser

I agree with you, I recall that the CEO has a large stake hinself and the institutional investors look good, various specialists in small cap stocks & a small cap video puff I saw very recently mentioned them saying that the CEO never bothers to promote the company but may well look to sell as he could be retiring soon, not sure how true that is but the lack of divis doesn't bother me, many US growth stocks pay no divis & prefer to reinvest.

I'm attracted to this because of the sector, WATR's value to the sector and the general lack of competition allowing it to build up strength & coverage.

The fact that they are using profits to buy back areas from franchisees also encourages me as that should mean greater profit sooner rather than later.

Shamtown

I am with you, I always feel nervous when a CFO leaves at such short notice unexpectedly, especially when their webinar recently indicated everything was starting to look sooo much better...

Shaperite

I totally agree with your summary, FD's view on the accounts and their quirks has been consistent & correct over the years I've been on this BB.

My gut when they were at 30p & below that they were trading like option money was not wrong either, every dog has its day, but some on this board don't seem to appreciate the headwinds facing MARS currently.

Not the least of which is an apparent aversion to alcohol intake by the younger generation, something I never expected to see in my lifetime but by the number of pubs closing in some parts of the UK this seems to be hurting.

Sorry I need to mention that my post below should have been addressed to lejjb

In your research int MARS did you watch the vox markets video Friday 5th where they focussed on leisure & in particular on brewers and pubs ?

If you had you would have seen them discouraged by MARS because of the debt.

I think it is well worth a watch on youtube if you want to see independent research.

Arb

I do agree with you 100% about the way he talks, indeed if he thinks in the same fashion then I guess that is the reason for the s h 1 t prformance he has given us ?

I'd love to be there to ask a question or two but sadly I'm due in hospital around that time

Arb

I do agree that failure should not be rewarded but the ongoing costs of FGT, according to morningstar & the FT, who are normally accurate are 0.61%, which given the glacial change in portfolio is a little high but nothing like some closed enders charge.

In a perverse way we would all be a bit better off if there was a performance fee in this trust, because that would not have been paid for quite a few years !

Are you planning to attend the meeting ?

Investor Meet Company are doing a presentation for PMI at noon on Jan 12, good to see them conversing with shareholders, questions to be asked can be submitted in advance.

FD

Indeed it should be noted that according to the results recently put up on their website that net debt, excluding lease liabilities, is currently at £1,185 million down a measly £31 mill from last year (2022 for dischargers benefit as he is usually in the wrong decade), and with lease liabilities debt is £1,566 million which considering the business had prioritised debt reduction a £31mill reduction against their debt figures looks almost insignificant, or a "rounding figure".

I don't think I am misunderstanding anything here but if so I apologise. I always feel nervous when I read the "underlying" EPS is a positive (5.1p) but the "actual" is a negative (-1.5p), there can be good reasons for that but with debt at the levels quoted I think I am correct in being rather sceptical.

Ahananda

Great spot of yours, very interesting, I dabbled my feet in on Thursday after the placing at a tad over 39p, I saw the presentation that this company put on at Amati vct agm earlier this year, liked what I saw very much so put it on my watchlist to buy when the price dropped (were about 70p then).

I'll add on further dips but do think this is a very sound business and the tie up just announced in your link was further confirmation of this.

Scharnhorst

And a very happy Santa period to you too although I doubt many Norwegians (Quislings excepted) would agree with me !

Boards would though, I'm sure...

It is a nice nav almost every day, a very cheap and very well run I.T. imho

@spk

Interesting post, thanks.

Apart from Sense, which they thought to be a cracker, and jumped in at the end of a refinancing thinking it's sale or float was in the bag they have more lemons than plums to choose from, however they do get first choice on the plums.

My guess is they will continue to milk their EIS investors by jumping in as something is about to take off but the VCT investors have much more protection (& pay high relatively fees to boot).

I follow their house stock purchases with interest, as you can imagine.

FD

Vanguard ?

I remember Platinum, were they tied up with Vanguard ?

Euse/FD

Your points are well made, but am I right in thinking that even a 1 for 1 at 30p (ouch !) would raise just under £190mill ?

With their debt standing where it is currently that would make a difference to their balance sheet of only a little more than "nothing to a jam tart" if I'm right.

Please correct me if my maths are wrong but I'm working that on the FT's figures which show shares outstanding as 634mill.

No wonder the SP is effectively just option money.

Another private equity deal today taking yet another listed stock off the London market but no PE investor seems to have checked Wolverhampton on google maps for a long time.

Lejib

Precisely !

Funny thing was that it took our midnight rambler till almot 04.00 to think that one up, perhaps his mind was slower as a result of the extended slurping time ?

Parob

He also bought another 500,000 yesterday according to RNS.

It is nice to see skin in the game being increased at these levels