RE: Upside potential22 Jul 2020 22:53
Cats. We have done this before using the estimates within the Paul Harrison interview. PH stated that based on 20Mw capacity the profit would be in the region of €6 - 7m before EBIT. Taking off a bit of tax and using a PE of 14 this equates to an SP of 25 to 30p.
Verditek are increasing capacity due to the projected pipeline of orders and demand. This is likely to be 55Mw at the Italian factory. Achieving orders to fill capacity could return the same profitability maybe better due to economy of scale. But let's just use the x 3 multiplication of profits and PE of 14. SP could be 75 to 90p
Verditek are also looking for licencing deals to increase capacity further which will only add to this valuation.
Figures are also bases upon the lower sales price of €1.00 per watt whe Verditek could achieve more for different clients where there are perhaps different requirements.
So based just on the flexible solar the SP could be anywhere fro 75p to £1 plus within 12 months and beyond that with capacity increase much more.
But this is trying to make sense of the market and fundamental analysis. When does that ever run true to form ? It could go much higher or never get close to these figures. These are the chances we take.
The Paragraf JDP is not factored in yet. If this is successful and the JDP can prove a panel that can produce 50% more efficiency from a standard size panel it would transform the solar industry. What valuation would you put on this ? It could be £100s of millions or even £bns. This could send the SP beyond what is imaginable at these levels.
The caveat is that this is AIM. Nothing makes sense or goes to plan and we should always be aware that when we need to sell in a rush you may not get the price you wanted. We see this alot where there is no liquidity when we try and buy or sell.
I have been invested in AFC energy for 10 years. I believe in the tech and the Hydrogen sector is very prominent. It will be for some time. Currently they have a valuation just 1/6th of peers in the sector and in some cases this only 1/10th of the more highly valued. If they get things right there is a good chance they could exceed the value of their peers in 12 to 24 months. Market does not value them at the moment and over the last few weeks has taken 25% of the SP, possibly due to dilutive effects of placing but they have never been in a better place. As with anything you must do your own research. Clearly you have done before investing. Nothing is straight forward or goes to plan and an exit strategy should be a priority. Dont trust anything anyone says (including me) on a discussion board, don't make investments based upon what someone writes.
These are my opinions and certainly not advice