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This is from 2 wheelman as he’s on the bus going home
“Hi Bamps, good to meet you and Richard tonight. I did make a few notes as follows:
The 220m offered by the 3 banks for the 30% could easily be scaled upto 730 for 100% of Hav, but may need 1 or 2 extra banks to spread exposure. SD also said some hedging of the gold price may be looked at to give the banks additional security in that scenario. Plan would be to get a starter mine up and running to get FCF asap, then scale up...said they'd spent 3 yrs I think unpacking what that looked like.
Suggested Ggp's Last right of refusal would deter other bidders for Hav// telfer but stressed several times that he thought this process would be relationship driven.
He seemed very confident as though things are progressing in the background but obviously couldn't say as much. I came away confident in my investment but things won't happen overnight.“
Hi Ace
I would have to check but there is a closure document, I would be very surprised if there wasn’t a bond to cover the reclamation costs.
I believe I’ve seen a figure of $500m but don’t hold me to it.
The closure costs should come out of the bond.
On some / most construction projects there are bonds redeemable after completion and maintenance periods lodged with a third party bank.
The closure costs should be redeemable
Hi SAS
From what I’ve seen the reclamation costs are $500m and that would go on liabilities but Telfer has a lot of assets and someone else mentioned the 2 processing trains are worth a fair wedge which would go on current assets.
Using Royalties would be a good way of paying towards the cost of purchase.
The other thing Newcrest must have been doing is putting cash into a bond to cover future reclamations. This would be in a closure plan as part of the approval system.
The government is not going to let Newmont walk away from their responsibilities.
Hi Dip
At the last TH Shaun did say the water volumes were higher than first thought, maybe due to further drilling information.
It’s nothing to do with cyclones and heavy rain early last year as this is a contained aquifer with probably ancient water
Hi Dip
The volumes of water were reported a few years back in the Hydrological Surveys, these volumes were estimated in between a high P90 to low P10. On the high case scenario the evaporation ponds were designed and the hypersaline pond ( the big one ) is 175km2.
I don’t know the exact height but I think it’s 6m, 0.7m for wave height and a 1:100 year flood event.
Shaun said at one TH that the water volumes are on the low side.
If the water is being pumped out from the base of a confined aquifer the strata will dry out from the top of it , therefore allowing the Decline to commence in dryer conditions even if the bottom has still a water volume.
Regarding the decline workers flying back , they might well be working on the Decline at Havieron ( I hope so) but some of those guys work underground at Telfer
Hi SKWalker
Shaun never responded to me questioning my thoughts that the dimensions were incorrect but they’re definitely at the hold point.
Well they were apparently the Decline crew flew back to Telfer from Perth last Thursday
Latest satellite image
Little change
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=777
Latest image suggests maybe they’ve started again
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=873
Hi Bobrad
The distances shown on the last couple of RNSs in my opinion don’t tie up with what they’ve shown us.
For instance from the last known advance to the hold point they’re showing 110m vertical depth to 80m, so 30m at a gradient of 1:7 is 210m. They’re saying they’ve advanced 80m between RNSs.
I asked Shaun by email and couldn’t see how they could be at the hold point. His reply was swift that he can confirm they are at the hold point.
At 1:7 those distances quoted are way out.
Just have to accept what he’s telling us.
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=729&start=20
Shaun has stated the Decline will reach the ore in the third quarter.
That doesn’t mean they will be producing at that point.
There are 2 stages for the Decline getting to the ore :-
1 completion of the exploration decline down to the base of the Permian cover
2 the production decline and infrastructure to get to the first stoping level including the ventilation shafts and fan unit plus all relevant drives prior to stoping.
There will be some development Ore as the drives go through the ore, that’s not a great amount and also ore coming from the stope drive’s possibly this time next year.
Ore is likely to be stacked on the ROM pad waiting for suitable quantities for transport to commence.
In last years Bell Potters conference Shaun stated
The Q&A at the end
“think we'll be really able to narrow down that timeframe and that's part of the optimization process is try to minimize that time between first ore and the transition to free cash flow.”
They won’t be buying we’ve been all through this before.
When asked at the Town Hall he is the middle of funding a house purchase and kids schooling.
Share options are part of their salaries they don’t need to buy.
The wording about the vent works is a bit ambiguous in my mind.
They’ve completed the vent works enough to get the Decline to the base of the cover.
They can’t complete the vent works to the base of the cover without going through the aquifer.
In my mind they haven’t finished it but have done enough for the Decline to proceed, I’m expecting NEM to announce the restarting on the 22nd in their announcement will make them look good.
No sign of the fan at surface yet I’ve been watching the satellite images for that, think it will be in place for the production phase of the Decline infrastructure.
NEM have joint venture with Caterpillar to provide automated services underground at Tanami and Boddington.
I’m expecting this will happen at Havieron in the interim I think Byrnecut will have an extended contract till this takes place.
“one of the really exciting things about developing a new mine is all of the best grade, all of the best years of Havieron is ahead of it and we will go straight into that SE Crescent which runs you know ballpark four grams, so 3.7 grams presently in that reserve and we think that walks up a little bit
- the so… when we think about and that and there's probably around you know 15 years of mining already delineated around that and that SE Crescent continues to grow but this can be a 2-3 plus decade mine life and when you do that you start tracking down into or broadening into those Eastern breccia and Northern breccia zones ”