The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
For rehabilitation and levy for abandoned mines
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=5403#p5403
With everyone concentrating on the gold price the copper price has been sneaking upwards.
It’s very significant.
Havieron copper forecasted production average has a grade of 0.6%.
Copper price $4.08/lb (US)
For 100%
Production 3mt pa @0.6% =18,000t or 39.6mlbs
@ 4.08 = $161.5m pa
Copper record high $4.88 =$193.25m pa
0.8% grade = $216.25m @$4.08
0.8% grade =$258.6m @$4.88
1% grade = $269m pa @ $4.08
1% grade = $322m pa @ 4.88
It’s risen slightly higher since I’ve done those calcs to $4.1125
Initial production grades could be a lot higher
Just read Hopefullygold’s comments
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=5397#p5397
They’re in for a shock then 🙂
Latest images
Looks wet everywhere
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=777
The reinstatement process at Telfer is not an operation that starts after the mine closes so putting a figure on it is very difficult.
Everyone knows there’s a processing plant and eventually dismantled but will have a sell value. Not many will realise the heap dumps are massive at Telfer.
https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/Referral_Documentation/A1445_R1059_Telfer%20ARI%20Report-main_0.pdf
There’s 2 of these so I may have got the wrong one 🙂
In 2002 the heap dumps contained 125m tonnes whereas the ore going through the plant was 35mt.
This has grown since, there is a cut off grade where weak ore is sent to the leach pad or heap dump.
If it’s gold ore it will have cyanide solution filtered through it to obtain an acid with gold in it. Over time this cyanide dissipates to acceptable levels, when this is achieved the dump is seeded with native fauna but the testing is still monitored overtime.
Same for the copper dumps.
This still happening with Telfers weak ores which are getting weaker.
Tailings ponds 1 to 6 would have been seeded but are now going to be used for paste fill to Havieron. This seeding back in 2002 was still being trialled to see if it will work.
Monitoring of waste dumps and tailings will continue for many years after the miners have gone but government agencies may take on that roll from monies left in bonds.
Last few years they’ve been drilling all over the place but found nothing of significance.
The Newcrest geo chap did a presentation I think last year not certain but he said they were reevaluating what they learned from Havieron to go back over their data. I’m not sure how that progressed but they were certainly drilling down by Ironclad which is very close to Pascalle and Westin.
There’s targets all around I should think some will be surrendered.
The deep sensing magnetic survey I presume is what he was referring to. This was the tool they used on Havieron which later confirmed the deep magnetic anomaly. It also found the deep magnetic anomaly under the London target, so should be very beneficial back at Goliath and I believe they have used it at the 2 Tabletop targets.
Hi Barna
I think they are bundled up into the new EPA revision sent for approval last November.
This covers Telfer and Havieron. I would imagine extensions will be granted. I’m not sure though whether there’s any portions that will have to be surrendered
Hi Speedy
You will have to ask the company that one.
Pre the plan in the MMRE i think Ggp share was around $90m but when the stoping plan came out at PFS stage I think our share went to $127m
This was to include all infrastructure on surface and the development decline. That’s what confused me as the stoping is in the production phase so whether that figure takes us down to the first production level I’m unsure.
The total capex was around $450m but that includes the stoping costs, without stoping it was around $300m. There must be still $200m to get to production but that’s a guesstimate .
Newcrest accounts somewhere showed a figure for total spend including the drilling so far.
( I’m not sure whether it’s US$ or Aus $ without looking)
Also not sure whether that included drilling and FS funding
Fortescue have licences surrounding Telfer with a joint venture with Carawine so would fit with a Ggp buy of Telfer.
To me IGO are the dark horse they have jv all over the place and have an undrawn debt fascility of A$720m. Struggling a bit with weak nickel prices at the moment.
Hi Rotherby
Yes that seems cheap but these big companies will let smaller companies grow and then they come back and buy it with shares after letting the smaller guys do all the work. Rio will do the same.
Most of the Capex cost is behind us but still a bit to go.
500+m of Decline to the base of the cover and aquifer , plus the ventilation drive following it.
A vent hole from the surface to the Western front + fan unit
About 500m Decline from top of ore to first stoping level
500m of drives and stope tunnels for production
Air raise and return from Western front to surface.
Once production starts capex will be no issue as forward work all paid for by revenues
“Today’s result “ where’s this sprung from.
Duster that’s a bad tone of phrase.
Scallywag cannot be quoted as a duster they’re looking for the source of the proximal anomalies.
The latest drill holes and surveys are pointing at deeper targets under the London anomaly , they’ve been testing the shallower anomalies/ conductors knocking them off one by one.
This is a very measured and economically minded campaign on a large licence.
What could Telfer valuation be:-
Newmont want $3.05 of synergies and sells
$500m from Lihir and Cadia
$500 other synergies and bulk caving skill sets , probably Newcrest patent on caving
$2bn of sells
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=722
Post on 21st May 2023 shows the NPV “bubbles” of each of the combined assets.
There are 6 mines and 2 projects
Telfer has 12% of the total NPV , Havieron is not mentioned so presuming that figure is combined.
This works out at $240m
That was nearly 12 months ago Telfer value is falling.
I can’t see the value being much more as the rest of the mines value would decrease if Telfers increases distorting their NPV values.
NCM also might not be able to achieve or might get more.
$240m looks like a great value for both , I would have thought that to be a minimum.
Who knows what’s going to happen 🤷♂️
My own thoughts about what is happening seems contrary to most of you on here but I think Winu and Telfer will be up for grabs.
I was a bit taken aback by the Rio jv last year and I came to the conclusion they were pulling back from the Telfer zone of influence. Their jv with other companies within the Winu zone of influence have been unaffected . There has been rumours a few years ago of Rio pulling out of Winu and they are resurfacing.
When you look at Rio latest news the next few years capex is absolutely enormous for a West African mine and the Mongolian mine.
Capex for Winu is likely to be held back, a sell looks on the cards to me.
If Shaun gets both he won’t be sending material to Telfer, Winu needs to be a processing hub for all the satellites targets around there remember these could be 50km north of Winu.
The economics of transporting ore to Telfer would be mind boggling expensive so a new plant at Winu has to be expected.
Telfers EPA allowed for around 80 road trains a MONTH to Port Hedland carrying concentrates.
30m tons a year from Winu would be around 470 road trains per DAY plus around 100-150 per day going to Port Hedland with concentrate. This is just not feasible.
The heritage situation at Winu has been rather difficult for RIO their exploration around Winu has been disrupted and their huge licence holding up there must be up for grabs.
Exciting times ahead but a bit of a lull in activity at the moment. Head down at the moment. Keeping everything crossed. 🤣🤞
Hi Malva
I personally think you haven’t grasped the mine plan very I’ve itemised a mining plan for the 6 pits and to sustain a 500k oz plan passed halfway down is not possible.
You remark about the open at depth but they’ve not found much at present and will stope it. They are very long thin thrust faults they will be expensive to stope as they are very spread out the capex will be high. Havieron ore body is straight down and compact so the decline will serve all the stopes and the future bulk mine.
I think you are blinded by Love of Hemi and can’t really see through this mine plan and you don’t really understand the mining plan of Havieron. I’ve spent many hours planning a mining sequence for both and I don’t see what you are seeing.
The smaller targets at Hemi are very irregular and have a sizeable dilution problem whereas Havieron internal dilution is low and whole dilution is only 6% +3% to include paste fill coming out with the bulk mine if that happens.
Enough said from me I’m not invested in Hemi and I’m not that interested in it to be honest.
Well I think that article says it all “sustainability “ is the in word, CO2 reduction, solar, wind and gas power station.
Sending their copper concentrate to Port Hedland.
This suggests they will build the plant there to produce copper concentrate. They will also take in other ores from other mines notably Calibre from Antipa but also targets to the west like Bulldog and Ggp’s Citadel Hill to the east. These are within trucking distances of Winu are small enough for trucking to be viable.
Winu is sat on a very large land package, I can’t find anything published of this exploration.
Winu is sat on roads/ tracks to Port Hedland by the look of things so makes sense to go that way than Telfer.