Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
A lot of this comes down to the placing. So many PIs cutting their losses as they got caught out by the decision to do the placing - despite assurances to the contrary.
The big buys are stacking up. The institutions are starting to mop up, and PIs are paying for it. I honestly thought the floor would be 118 based on the placing price, and I can't still can't see it being allowed to drift too much below that placing price, but it's still tough to see.
When I first starting paying attention to internet forums regarding trading I was incredibly dismissive of the notion that anyone in their right mind would blindly listen to nonsense spouted by rampers/derampers on these forums.
Over the years, however, I've come to realise that it must indeed be worth their while. And that's why we see these little whipping-boy interns cropping up on all boards on all forums pushing their own agenda with spurious claims and fanciful plugs.
Astonishing that people are acting on their 'advice' without researching themselves, but there we are. I'm not here to protect anyone else's money but my own.
However, rather than pander to it and give them a platform, can I recommend the filter button? It really is a lot easier, believe me.
As I said yesterday, there's a very good reason those shares were placed at 120.
It can be forced down as many times as they like, we know where the bottom is.
However, that won't stop people putting their stop losses in and whilst those are visible, the market will hunt them down.
With a typical FTSE stock private investors do not really have the power to move the share price in any significant manner. Of course people follow the money and if a company has good news people jump on, but it's moving regardless of whether they get on or not. PIs are boats, and investment houses, brokers, MMs, etc. are the ocean. Doesn't matter how big your boat is, if the ocean tries hard enough it can still turn it over.
AIM is different, and that's what we are seeing here. People are chasing Golden Geese and when it doesn't lay for a day or two they bail - typiaclly losing money in doing so. If every PI sat on their hands for a week this would settle back up at 150ish whilst we wait for news.
It has been repeatedly reported that the brand alone is worth £2.5bn. With 1.5bn shares in issue, even if that brand value is overstated by £1bn - the share value should be £1 on brand alone. Then there's the DBX order book, manufacuturing, servicing, F1, etc. etc.
I've been aronud long enough not to get caught up in the peaks and troughs on my mid-long term holds, and I very rarely top up - as I know what I'm prepared to invest in a particular stock and the price I'm prepared to pay, and I stick to it. However I'd happily recommend this one to anyone until it breaches £1 as that's how undervalued it is. After £1 you need to do your own due diligence.
Google shows the last trade - could have been from much earlier in the day as a delayed trade.
It closed at 131.25.
The placing was at 120 for a reason. That was what sealed the large investment from Conifer - as that is a market cap that can be soundly justified.
It seems to be that 130-140 is actually where the market feels that justification is.
Then there's hype. Despite most people knowing there COULDN'T be news today because there had been no RNS, lots of people still seemed to expect it. When it didn't come, they jumped - and MMs are more than happy to push it down, as we know.
This will swing between here and 160 whilst we wait on news, and then - provided no-one beats us to it with this new delay - we see where the new levels are. You're either prepared to sit it out and you still believe that your research into AVCT is valid, or you feel there has been a shift and you want out.
i've been fairly critical of AS and AVCT and the way the markets have acted this past couple of weeks, but that doesn't change the fact that fundamentally I feel the company still has enough to offer that I can reach my target exit point during 2020. After today's presentation I actually feel more confident about my date prediction on Muir's little list as well - though of course AIM and Covid stocks are always a risk.
I'd imagine most are here as a mid-to-long term holding. Nothing has really changed at AML today, so this is combination of a poor FTSE market, poor economic outlook in the UK, and MMs having the time of their lives.
If you're playing the day-trader game then these peaks and troughs will be of some interest. I'd imagine most of us are not, and so this is just another day. At this point, for something to go wrong at AML it would be them filing for bankruptcy and you wouldn't be looking at a 10-15% dip, I can assure you. Given how unlikely that is a week after all the restructuring, this is just market volatility and a little market manipulation off the back of it.
Waves are a certainty when you're out on the ocean. Keep your eyes on that horizon.
Whilst the idea of a leak certainly shouldn't be scoffed at given the fact last week's placing was leaked to brokers days before it was announced, i don't think it's the case here.
If you look back, AVCT has typically done well on the days placing shares are admitted to market. The uncertainty is done at that point.
The question here is how many of these shares were forward sold and how many are holding for a larger return on their short term flip based on what news comes tomorrow. This will determine whether the SP can breach the previous high in the next few trading days (assuming good news, of course) - if a big enough chunk of those placing shares are holding for a larger return it will restrict how fast the SP can climb on news.
We will also have a lot of PI's who invested at 200+ who will use a good news surge as a chance to bank their intitial investment and run for the hills, which will also pull back the SP. Which is yet another reason the releasing of the news of placing to the markets in the days prior to last Thursday continues to shaft PIs.
Personally, I think news tomorow needs to be 'we've found the new penicillin' level for the SP to break past the shackles explained above and start heading for these 250/300 figures people are talking about. "We're on track" won't be enough, but should still see a fair uptick on the SP.
The city boys have made their millions, and AVCT have been more than happy to help them do so. So now it's time for AVCT to show their hand - and you better believe it needs to be a bloody good one.
Whiteghost - I'm of the same belief, personally. Long holds, with a mix of short current affairs stocks to bring immediate volume. However, whilst I don't believe in day trading or shorting (mostly because I'm too old to have the reflexes for day trading and betting against someone doesn't sit well with me), let's not pretend there isn't serious money in it.
That said, there are a lot more lucrative shorts right now than AML. Of course this post could now come back to haunt me, but knowing a little about the company and how they operate I can't see them failling in 2020.
Ade1234 - Because inititally the grants went to companies who had mates in Government. ODX, GDR, all had grants, mentions at briefings, and so on.
I'll say that for AVCT, they're the gifted council house kid who kept on plugging away outside the spotlight and made it to Oxford.
As for whether they can deliver - well, if we knew that for sure then we'd all have our houses on it. As we don't, we make our best guesses based on our research and we play the AIM game to the tune of what we can realistically afford. Some, unfortunately, will play with more than that.
For an AIM share, this one is a lot more secure today than it was yesterday. And getting in tomorrow morning will be a challenge for anyone not currently holding. I personally don't like how today played out but I think even the staunchest deramper would struggle to argue there's money here at 150.
How high it can go - well unfortunately the only way to know for sure is hindsight.
Dumbles I have a similar outlook. See my final post on my earlier post today a little below yours.
My only caveat would be that I now would not advocate sitting on your hands. I honestly felt this company had a deep respect for PIs based on everything from interviews from AS to specific timing of RNS'. I now don't have that view.
My recommendation, and you can do with it what you like, is to pick a number that makes sense and stick to it. Need £500 for a new boiler? There's your number. Need £5k for a holiday to the Maldives? There's your number. Need £50k to clear the mortgage? Good luck to you. And on, and on. This has become a number to me now, as most of my longer term investments are - whereas last week I was excited to see something that Joe Public could get involved with, make some cash and ease their burden whilst being a part of a company that wanted them to be a part of it. Today proved that isn't the case, and whilst I'm no longer surprised by these things, I cannot help being a bit disappointed.
Richob that's a measured counter argument, thank you.
For me, this just seemed all too familiar. A share allowed to be ramped for all in-the-know to then have the best part of a week to offload and drive the price down - looking like simple tree shakes to begin with. Naive and nervous PIs get caught out and get burnt. Perhaps after years of investing and getting burned myself my empathy gets the better of me - but I just feel this could have been handled differently.
I'm still invested, just not to the levels I was previously. I'm almost certain I'll make a lot more money off this share, but I can't shake that sour taste in my mouth that today brought.
Good luck to all, and remember that humility is your greatest asset.
As I posted yesterday, stumbled across this quite by accident after wondering what AML shares were up to when looking at the Rapide on Autotrader.
Have done considerably more research today and topped up. Seems like there's a very significant upside to this scaling back when it comes to overall profitability. Obviously it could fail, which is the risk, but at this price per share I feel the upside far outweighs the risk.
I can see me being in this one for a while if things carry on as anticipated. It's certainly not something I'm expecting to multibag in a couple of months, but I can see steady sustained growth on the cards here. One for the long term part of my portfolio.
Foxo - We were told categorically that the placings were done. If AS had come out in an RNS/interview and mentioned that, despite saying this, new things had come to light and they may need to raise further funds then those who were well researched would have been forwarned.
He didn't, and then the markets were given adequate warning to drop the SP and make millions off the back of fleeing PIs who simply could not afford to take a risk of it dropping further.
I've been around the block with regard to investing and I've been on the receiving end of such things in the past. It just doesn't sit well with me.
It seems the fact that this share was insider traded over the past week, down to the placing value, has now been forgotten by most. This push down was made to look like ever-more-aggressive tree shakes up until yesterday where some more experiences investors started to question the significant drop in SP.
The company has shown its true colours. Of course there's still money to be made, of course their is - but AVCT isn't the same company it was a fortnight ago.
This was all done to stick it to private investors, like ourselves. The more experienced held their nerve, bought the spikes and sold the dips, but plenty of other investors will have been stung hard. It's a shame, but such is the stock market.
However, to come onto a board and see people actively mocking and jeering those "newbies" who have been burned is fairly abhorrent. We're all here to make a profit - whether £300 or £30m, it's signifcant to every one of us.
I'd wager every single one of us on these boards is a lot closer financially to being penniless than we are to being billionaires. Some on here would do well to remember that.
Chengdo4 - They don't deserve socks. They've been very naughty house elves.
Told myself I'd hold off until lunch but couldn't help myself. I've had an hour or so to digest this, though.
Firstly - there's a bit of Stockholm Syndrome with some investors on here getting fisted this morning and now seemingly happy to sing like a Muppet.
My biggest issue is that I genuinely liked this company and the way it was - on the face of it - ran. That has changed. The company has deliberately posted misleading information to investors, and that's not OK. A massive product RNS in the next 24 hours may change that view slightly, but not entirely.
I've gone from feeling like I'm investing in something that will make a difference in the world to feeling like it's just another merry dance being led by a load of city boys in boat shoes and no socks.
There's still significant potential here, but I've took a big chunk of my investment out today at 143. I was in well, well under £1 so that's still a very good profit in a couple of months - but overnight my view has changed from actually caring about the company to focusing exclusively on the profit I'm making - which is a strange feeling as I typically focus on companies that are trying to do some good in the world. AVCT has also gone from the biggest share in my portfolio by a distance, to one of the smaller ones.
It can soar to £2 today - i'm ok with that. I can't be so heavily invested in a company that behaves this way. It's one of the main reasons I took a different career path over the past couple of decades and invest purely as a PI, rather than taking a career down in the City and not being able to wear socks.
Well, unless there’s a decent RNS very soon about the product to alleviate the pain for PIs, then I think there may be some seriously upset people about.
I’ll come back at lunch and see how it’s going. Not interested in the initial volatility today.
Certainly, not what I’d hoped for, but not the end of the world some seem to be taking it for (of course I didn’t buy in at £2... I can see how those people have been hung out)...
Heading back up to roost. Another fantastic day for the MMs. What a dream they're living.
Tried to buy £3k to top up for the last ten minutes. Can't get a quote.