RE: EUA Trades over 10p if Zelensky signs the security guarantee27 Jan 2026 13:37
For the first time since the war began, the conditions for an end to the Ukraine–Russia conflict are aligning, making February 2026 a realistic turning point. The battlefield has settled into a costly stalemate, where further gains would require escalation neither side can afford. At the same time, economic strain, political pressure, and donor fatigue are intensifying on all sides, increasing the incentive to translate endurance into a negotiated outcome rather than prolong a grinding war with diminishing returns.
Wars usually end quietly, after months of back-channel talks and mediation, then suddenly shift when the timing is right. Late winter has historically been a natural moment for ceasefires and political resets, and an imperfect peace is increasingly more attractive than an unreachable total victory. Nothing is guaranteed—but if there has been a moment when diplomacy, pressure, and fatigue converge, the next few weeks stand out more than any point in the past three years.