Member Info for Avoidaim

Its the hope that will kill you

A generational US boom is happening it makes you wonder why we are investing in the uk and uk penny stocks

Intel just showed a rapid rise after years of stagnation. Years of patient holding rewarded in a rapid rerate.

Theres a floor in TTF for the next 12 months.

FCF at TTF averaging 45 is around 4-5 million when viura come back to 190k scm.

Just about enough to put all your eggs in a Viura sized basket. One more payment then it self funds further drilling.

Selva cash calls are some way off with delays likely.

Once an additional Selva well is paid for and brought online that will likely be the tipping point.

A rising tide raises all boats.

Disconnect with SP and Mcap is from repeated dilutions

Either become self funding from FCF or forever be undervalued

Accurate observations.

Low volume drift doesn’t explain the SP.

Don’t believe me, believe your own eyes. Sentiment and momentum is deteriorating in real time for the reasons already stated.

Maybe you both are right.

The drop in SP is due to uncertainty not fundamentals. The market doesn’t believe that 2026-2027 funding is covered without dilution. Look at those big rounded sells coming in continuously. MR can earn his salary here, all the bad news is now priced in. There is a possible path forward it just has to be communicated and executed over the next three years. Debt financing at Viura would be fantastic news but the market isn’t convinced it will happen.

MR has routinely used soft language leaving all options open. Talking down the risk of dilution. He has repeatedly said he would look for debt financing during every funding round but not once delivered it.

The SP doesn’t lie. He’s made promises then broken them. Reducing everyone’s confidence.

They made a choice to divert 2025 cash to Viura. Longterm it’s an investment but short term is drained all the cash that was required to develop our assets.

Time will show if the better choice would have been to have done nothing, save the cash and grow the business without dilutions

You could argue. To cut back all growth projects and management costs.

Appoint a salary light, shareholder friendly management team. Reinvest all revenues, accept dilutions.

Farm out El Romeral

I’m sure if Simon and a group of the LTH suggested a management team with lower costs and a simple plan to prioritise shareholder interests. That we would all support and have patience to see the assests developed.

It’s happened once already

There should be push back

Consider this. You are the manager of a non-operated gas company.

Your salary is 330k a year. You have an experienced team od managers and geologists plus the esteemed accountant Grant Ganfield that help you pass the time day to day.

Your perspective is to steward the company through an underlying commodity boom and develop the assets.

Just before a development well is due to be financed. You see that the company has 200k post royalty, post tax profit in the company bank account. Rather than reinvesting that in the business to develop the undeveloped asset you have the orientation to extract that money to the managers.

When questioned on this. Your eloquent rebuttal during the investor meeting was that 50% of the bonus was paid out towards income tax.

Very rarely has a single event destroyed investor confidence so soundly.

On paper not by cash flow. Pinch points are Q1-Q2 cash call at Viura and cash call Q1 Selva. Capital intensive projects all coming in at the same time and very little cash.

El Romeral will be 3-6 months more for permitting. Pxen will cover a portion of the capex, blue sky thinking 30% on the back end with very little revenue through 2026. If everything goes perfectly operationally and on schedule there’s still a 7-8 million black hole to cover in 26 and 27. Kevin Bailey proudly stated he bought 25% of Poe valley on the open market with very few options, a man who speaks with conviction.

MR has bought few shares. But worse, routinely stated optimistic timelines and returns which have been shown to be fluff to draw in new investors. If there were conviction then maybe some of the circa 400k cash he extracted last year from the company would result in a buy to shore up confidence.

Is there any mechanism to extract a penalty or reverse bonus on directors when a bonus was shown to be opportunistic, premature and objectively unwarranted ?

Are there means for shareholders to request bonus payments are linked to share price performance ?

Predictions: TTF avergaes 30-33 for the next 3 years. 3-4m pound dilution Spring 26. Larger 4-5m pound Dilution for Selva Malvezzi Q1 27. Near term deadlines stated are routinely missed by several months, other deadlines missed by years. MR remains at the bottom of the table of listed share holders. Directors will extract cash for bonus and award options at opportune times despite the company being cash poor and in early development stages. SP performance will remain capped until atleast 2029 due to weight of dilutions and a continuous decline in TTF due to over supply and end of Ukraine-Russia conflict.