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Tanzania wants to export energy to neighboring countries. Also many nations will be looking for alternative gas suppliers to reduce concentration risk. World demand for energy is growing and Tanzania's gas infrastructure it close to its ports.
Not sure why people don't do adequate due diligence but try to come to these boards and spread FUD.
A_D
Push,
Even after all the issues, I too still believe GL is doing a good job. I used to think he was doing a great job. The fact is, he and JT rescued ANGS (imo). I do agree no matter what GL says some are going to hate hate hate (as the song goes).
Btw, I have asked twice in Q4 about the hedges and they did not answer in the Q&A. I have asked again this month (Jan 23). Let's see what comes of it.
A_D
Push,
Thanks for the Q&A post. I honestly missed it. Even so, I am with Howey on this one. The initial comments by GL gave the impression that things were ok with the hedge. Then came news that things were not. Even now, we still don't have enough clarity. GL could have told us all this Q&A information in an earlier RNS or even in the raise RNS. Yet he chose to do so in a Q&A at the end of the year. Sus!
As mentioned previously, I have no issue with the raise. Things happen. I also agree the company, in my opinion, is worth 2-3 times what it is now. The pain point is the lack of transparency to assess how much risk I am taking on. For example, baits (per my understanding) is positive on ANGS, yet he has sold out some time ago. Why? It's based on his risk appetite. This is the same for the rest of us.
At the same time, you can't blame people for wanting to vent their frustration. I was actually thinking about picking up some more shares; but am hesitant as I don't know enough of where ANGS is financially. I have similar concerns as Howey. As I mentioned previously, the share price will go up if you turn speculators into buyers; this will come only when ANGS fulfills its word.
A_D
Just re-posting a query re: the additional hedge.
Is there a chance that ANGS agreed a price above £2 and the additional hedge would be in the money? At the time the additional hedge was agreed the forward curve was much higher than it is now.
Thanks
A_D
If gas prices continue to remain lower than the previous months, could the new hedge (the supposed "rollover") be profitable?
A_D
I've copied and pasted an extract from their website. I did not paste the full thing which can be found here:
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/
There are caveats.
A_D
All questions submitted before the 20th of each month will be answered by the 30th of the same month. Any questions submitted after the 20th will be answered by the 30th of the following month.
A_D
21/12/2022
System Entry Volume,
Saltfleetby,
D+1
0.1511
22/12/2022 14:01:01
A_D
I thought it was a type of forbearance. I foolishly assumed this is what was meant by deferring the volumes.
A_D
My main concern, is the sidetrack / compressor completion.
See Q&A (28.11.22)
"It should be noted that this (compressor) will add little in itself to gas sales until the side track well is producing, since the existing wells should not be run too hard. "
GL had initially said the sidetrack was not going to affect ANGS ability to meet the increased hedge requirements in Q1 2023.
Also, I could not find anything in the last RNS that said the new hedge was requested my Mecuria. The only thing I can think of is ANGS entered into it to try to convince Mercuria to defer.
I must be missing something here. Please let me know guys. Very confused.
A_D
I knew the hedge risk crystallizing was a possibility given GL's refusal to answer questions about it. The issue for me is not the £3.3m or even the £7m dilution; it's the blatant deception. It makes decision making difficult.
I am curious to know the new hedge price, volumes and timings.
A_D
What i don't understand also, is the need for an additional hedge given that the Q3 2022 hedge was not rolled over. Why create an additional rod for your own back in H1 2023 given that you have consistently failed to hit targets?
A_D
onsolidground
Not exactly. The issue is that there was not enough flowing gas in Q3 2022 and thus the hedge requirement was not met.
A_D
Val,
The RNS today states the liability is £3.3m for the missed Q3 2022 delivery.
A_D
Thanks ocelot. I didn't scroll enough on the RNS.
However, it looks like GL misled us. He said the hedge (Q3 2022) was deferred. It was not; instead it was closed out and a new hedge struck.
The good news is that my calculations were correct. I estimated a £3m liability for the hedge to be sitting on the books that they have hidden from us.
A_D
It was commercial when prices were 64p. Not sure why you think it is a dead duck.
A_D
Per the RNS
"nonetheless average production rates remain ahead of hedged volumes. "
Per the same RNS
"settle a liability that has recently arisen under the Company's hedging arrangements"
I don't understand how we could be meeting the requirement and have a liability. I also don't understand how this liability could be recent. The hedge has been in place for over a year.
A_D
Many of the investments held are speculative. The past few years have been rough globally and in my opinion is the main reason growth has been slow. Funding for growth in these businesses may have also been stymied.
I will continue to hold as I think the portfolio has value in the long term.
DYOR
A_D
Just an opinion. The gov't would only commit to building a pipeline if they knew with reasonable certainty there is significant commercial quantities of gas.
DYOR
A_D
Peterashbeck
I agree the comms have been excellent with the exception of the hedge (imo). I also consider other peoples posts regarding the hedge and I think, again imo, they seem to be uncomfortable with what has been shared so far. It quite simply may also be an education issue in that potential investors don't understand how hedges work. Who can say? Verifiable...well, sometimes GL hesitates when he speaks, particularly when he is pressed to make estimates. This makes me nervous. Thus I take a conservative approach and "value" the company based on "facts" (if there is such a thing).
For example, I am waiting more for the 2nd compressor than the side track. The 2nd compressor is presumed gets us over the Q1/Q2 2023 hedge. I would expect a re-rate if this happens (i actually want to say 'when then happens'). I will only buy once this happens. Hope this makes sense.
DYOR
A_D