Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Something seems off. The spread is still wide and someone is placing many small trades at 4p.
My broker offering 3.5-4.0p spread.
Is it market manipulation?
A_D
Why buy TXP? Are they paying a dividend? Do they have massive reserves that will produce dividends over multiple years?
This share is purely speculative at this point. I am guessing many holders are speculative holders. If there is no news in the short to medium term a sell off is likely.
Hoping for 90p before the end of 2024 myself.
A_D
Have they given an estimate of the cost of the upcoming work programme?
Thanks
A_D
Thx Johnoxxx.
A_D
Wish I had cash, I would pick up some more. Almost US$50m per year FCF and less than US$200m market cap.
Please help my understanding, but is the next production increase :
1) dependent on new wells being drilled i.e. they cannot get more than 60mmscf from the current Cascadura well. (I though maybe they were holding out until the TT gov /NGC gave them a better price).
2) new production is planned for end of 2024
Thanks
A_D
I always find it interesting when SP is falling and people ramp the positives without providing any reasonable explanation as to why the SP is falling as the original poster inquired.
A_D
Volumes have been small; maybe the day traders are moving out. The share price will be walked down for a bit unfortunately. However, IF there is good news in the future buy volumes will outweigh these sells and cause a jump faster than the recent decline (i hope).
Cascadura, as I have been told, was already in the public sphere for a while and I suspect that much of the value is already baked into the SP. Additionally, maybe people though it would be 90mmscf per day; so actual is less than expectation.
Also, AIM is not what it used to be. A significant amount of money and investors have headed over to crypto. (all imho)
A_D
Lol. so true.
my expectation is another delay, this time promising Mar 24.
A_D
Were they supposed to provide a plan / presentation during summer ( as well as finish the pipework)?
A_D
Perhaps some of the upside is already baked into the price. Even so, the current oil price environment is not what it was during the first 2 quarters of 2023. Future contracts suggest above $80 for WTI up to June 2024. So, not only is there now more gas, the existing oil production should generate higher revenues.
I think once revenue numbers are reported and debt begins to be paid off the share price will better reflect the value of the company.
A_D
Ezhik et al,
Thanks for the feedback.
A_D
I'm no O&G expert, but my experience with AIM companies in E&P suggest that it takes time for a well to clean up and pressure to stabilize before they report numbers. This clean up period is usually in the 2-3 week range (just my experience though).
My question is, why build a 200mmscf plant in the jungle with no possibility of using the capacity? In my view, they obviously have sufficient technical evidence that the plant would need that capacity.
A_D
T&T economy is roughly 70% O&G. Production has been declining over the years. They definitely want as much as can be produced to shore up Revenues. They also have a sizable LNG plant there.
Not sure how up to date this is:
"T&T is the world’s largest exporter of ammonia (made from natural gas feedstock) and the sixth-largest exporter of LNG. "
A_D
Agreed it's de-risked. They have confirmed production have started and "the Company intends to increase gross aggregate natural gas production from the Cascadura-1ST1 and Cascadura Deep-1 wells to 60 MMcf/d (10,000 boe/d) plus associated natural gas liquids over the coming weeks."
Let's see what the end of Sept holds.
A_D
Bubblepoint
Thanks for the response. Much appreciated.
A_D
Bubblepoint,
Thanks for the post regarding how storage works. That's insightful.
It situations such as these, if I were ANGS and a storage solution was immediately available, would I not factor the lost revenue into storage fees / agreement?
That said, do you think a solution is immediately available (3 months)? If its not, and it like two years away, we can still get a bit more gas perhaps? Someone, also mention there is a high cost; this may be a moot point if the customer is paying for the development though. I think, any amount of gas we leave behind will be a factor in the discussions.
What are your thoughts?
Thanks
A_D
So funny...
"The judge in today’s case, Mrs Justice Lieven, was formerly a planning barrister, who represented Cuadrilla and other onshore oil and gas companies.
The court heard how she had represented Cuadrilla at the appeal court. She was also Cuadrilla’s barrister at public inquiries over two proposed fracking sites in Lancashire. She represented Third Energy in a challenge to its fracking plans at Kirby Misperton in North Yorkshire and she put the shale gas industry’s case at an examination of the county’s minerals plan."
A_D
Guys,
Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Much appreciated.
A_D
Bubblepoint,
Thanks for the additional info. I read a presentation from a year or more ago which talked about a second sidetrack planned for later this year 2023. It could what is needed perhaps?
A_D
Bubblepoint
Thanks for the comprehensive response. I do need to spend more time with the CPR. From your point "The CPR for the remaining recoverable gas was done based on what the two original wells could recover and the additional new side track could drain." I interpret this to mean these 3 wells can extract potentially the 18 BCF; if so this is great news (for me) as I thought new wells would be required.
Thanks again
A_D