Member Info for Avalueinvestor

Share buy backs dried up a little over the past couple of weeks someone mentioned. I agree - but it's entirely in line with the habit of buy backs here. They accelerate during price weakness and the foot comes off the accelerator when the price forges ahead - month in, month out for several years, that's how they do their buy backs.

Agreed - very quiet most of the time but with long term value attraction I think.

I think fair value based on the fundamentals would be about 0.1p. It's basically hot air at the moment. That might actually be a generous valuation.

I would expect the price to go down by about 90% if valued by investors rather than speculators.

For the speculators, you could also try the Grace and Dotty Country Clothing Handicap Chase at 12.52 at Southwell races today. One broker gives it an 11/10 chance citing 'Yet to score over hurdles'.

There are few investors.

Most are speculators I think.

I would think below 1p in the next 6 months.

I think fair value, taking into account the fundamentals (not the hot air) would be about one twentieth of one penny.

That would be about 97% lower than today's price.

This is a share to bet on - not suitable for investment.

I'm a slow and reluctant adopter of tech so I thought I would download the app (easy!). I then added a small amount of cash and got held up in some type of quarantine for at least a week whilst Tap satisfied themselves that I'm a regular citizen. Having seen the cash credited to my account in the app (which has a very good, easy to understand user interface), I carried out a very, very small BTC purchase - and this was just astonishingly simple, straightforward and clear.

Tap really does provide a customer centric platform for fiat and crypto transfers and trading. I am impressed.

For anyone not quite sure whether to bet money on ALRT, another option is to have a flutter at Fakenham races today.

The 15.15 hrs 'Axe the Racing Tax Novices Hurdle' has six runners and riders.

ALRT isn't investable. You could bet on it though. Or, you could save your money for a real investment somewhere else.

(For anyone tempted to abuse me, did you notice that when you point a finger at someone, three of your own point back at you ?

I noticed also that the last time the share price was around 10p was about 3 years ago.

At that time, the gold price was about $1650 per ounce.

That's an interesting comment on the TSF Dambaba - which I was also thinking about today. But I haven't yet worked out if the Goldplat business model is either:

a) buy the tailings at a price informed by chemical analysis to estimate what the value of the gold retrieval might be, take ownership and later go on and do the retrieval, thereby risking a loss or profit against the day Goldplat bought the tailings, or

b) store the tailings for clients, as a payable service and then retrieve the remaining gold at a later date, under a revenue sharing agreement.

Bearing in mind the rapid increase in the value of gold in 2024-25, option (a) appears to offer Goldplat more of an upside for its 800,000 tons of tailings in S Africa.

I was reading around the subject and saw a statistic which I thought interesting - that some analysts c consider that 80% of the retrievable gold in the world may already have been mined. If this is correct or even in the right ballpark, perhaps, unless further large deposits are identified in the future, with increasing applications for gold as a rare metal required for technology, no reduction in the allure of gold jewellery and worldwide investors continuing to see gold as a store of value against chaos.....the gold price might continue to increase over the next few years.

Any views ?

It's hard to imagine without seeing a prototype machine in action whether, when emptying a washing machine that has used Xorbs, half of them will either be hidden within the clothing which has been washed or fall directly onto the floor when the machine is emptied. I appreciate the promotional material shows the Xorbs neatly falling back into a chamber within the machine before the cycle ends....but that seems unlikely....

Anyone know better ?

I agree with commentary below. There's a significant barrier and cost to creating a company with the regulatory clearances and scientific expertise to get itself into the position that HVO is. I think that the upside surely outweighs the downside currently.

There were 93M shares outstanding in January 2023. Buy backs have taken place virtually every trading day since. Tomorrow we will be close to 70M shares outstanding. The company is generating such good levels of cash that the buybacks have had little impact on cash held at the bank.

It's impressive.

Someone wrote 'it was worth 4p last week...'.

No, it might have been priced at 4p, but it wasn't worth it.

There's quite a lot of hot air being written about this company.

When I read: "Defence Holdings is using Google Cloud (Distributed Cloud, air-gapped) as the backbone for Project Ixian", I thought to myself that this is equivalent to me and my small business using MS Office to administer my small business. That is, I am paying for a licence for using a supplier's product.

There's no reason to invest in ALRT. Only betting is possible. in my view.

I think it would be fine for the share price to collapse a further 98% to reach an approximate fair value. It probably won't, but that's my view.

I wonder if there were some interesting discussions at HQ yesterday and today as the financial year closes. 'We have this much gold in stock...how much should we sell to close out the year at the highest gold price ever ?'

At the last RNS update on 4 June the company predicted fully year PBT of £15m based on what they knew of the first 8 months trading (and that the gold price averaged around $3200 during the prior 3 months). In the 4 months since, the gold price has (I think) averaged about $3400, and is at its highest ever today at a little over $3800. So, the £15m PBT might just become £16m if margins have been maintained.

This is quite good in my view for a company with net cash of £7m four months ago and a market cap today of £120M.

I don't know much about this company nor about coding. In fact I know almost nothing about coding or AI except that people with these skills are in demand.

Having read the RNS today and listened to the web cast, my takeaway impression was that the company appears to have been hugely agile in dealing with a complete uprooting and disruption of its business model. I won't comment about His Majesty's Government effectively reducing spend on training coders and AI professionals at the current time. Actually I will. That seems to be unhelpful to the whole country.

I've read many RNS and listened to many webcasts where the leaders of the company have much more completely failed to convince the audience that whilst there has been difficulty, they have an idea how to navigate it.

I was impressed. Of course that doesn't mean CODE will do well and this isn't a recommendation - just an observation.

Compared to some other investment opportunities, the amount of research to read is not as great for TAP.

Compared to some other companies associated with crypto, the material one can read about TAP is reasonably accessible to a person who isn't uptown date with crypto jargon.

It's an interesting proposition.

It's not a very strong negotiating position when the interested buyer knows the assets nay be available from liquidators in a few weeks time at hugely discounted prices.

IOF is an interesting looking investment with little debt, some cash which almost balances it, a growing expertise in production of iodine and creating iodine compounds for existing and new clients.

I'd be interested to hear the views of others about the world demand for iodine and thoughts on the $70/kg price being sustainable.

I think chemical companies are very much out of favour currently, but the fundamentals of IOF do look attractive to some value investors.

Besides intraday lows, the price is at its lowest since March 2019 I reckon, but this is still an attractive price for buyers.

Nil debt.

Growing sales.

PE ration of approx 13.5.

Solid and growing foothold in the high value and large German market.