Member Info for asimpleinvestor

@troublesome Many people are embarrassed by the antics they got up to 41 years ago. To hold it against them now takes the biscuit, as I'm sure you have many skeletons in your closet, you're ashamed of over that time period.

Quote ""There are 5,000 ISA millionaires in the UK, taking an average of 22 years to get there"..."

According to official HMRC data obtained via Freedom of Information requests, none of the UK’s ISA millionaires achieved that status through holding a pure Cash ISA alone. Out of the roughly 5,070 confirmed ISA millionaires:94% built their seven-figure portfolios exclusively by investing through a Stocks and Shares ISA.

The remaining 6% reached the milestone using a combination of Stocks and Shares and Cash ISAs, though the heavy lifting was entirely driven by the equity growth within those portfolios.

The mathematical reality explains this divide. Because historical cash interest rates have averaged significantly lower than long-term stock market returns, and given the strict annual contribution caps since 1999, it is mathematically impossible to have generated a £1 million balance in a pure Cash ISA by this point, even when maxing out the allowance every single year. Achieving a seven-figure pot within that 22-year average requires the compounding capital growth and dividend yields unique to the stock market.

Quote "Your example is based on 4.5% savings and 10%+ interest. This is not where we are now is it?... Now we are more or less at parity.."

As stated in the second paragraph quote:

"...This year, the asset class has recovered somewhat because the economic dynamic has flipped; with the Bank of England base rate having held high and inflation dropping down to 2.8%, a 4.5% tax-free ISA yield finally delivers a genuine, positive real return of around 1.7% above inflation, allowing the core purchasing power of that principal to slowly repair."

The example was given utilising the interest rate you used in your example.

None of what you have written negates the mathematical reality regarding savings as a distinct asset class. If interest rates are high and inflation is low, cash serves as a reasonable wealth-preserving asset, but if interest rates are low and inflation is high, it becomes a depreciating financial asset in real terms. Your specific example regarding a £500,000 balance actually highlights this issue: if you are earning 4.5% interest while headline inflation sits at a higher rate, the real purchasing power of that total £500,000 principal is actively shrinking year-on-year, regardless of whether the nominal interest payout covers your immediate monthly bills. Relying on nominal returns to meet cash flow requirements does not alter the fact that the underlying capital value is being eroded by inflation. Currently, interest rates are working in favour, being higher than the headline inflation rate, but as was seen in 2023, inflation peaked well above available savings rates, which significantly eroded the real value of cash capital.

To look at your £500,000 example through actual ONS data, consider the peak inflation period of 2023 when headline CPI hit a high of 10.1% while the average building society or bank ISA rate sat around 4%. Over that single year, your £500,000 principal generated £20,000 in nominal interest, moving the account balance to £520,000. However, because goods and services that cost £500,000 at the start of the year inflated to cost £550,500 by the end, your cash fell £30,500 short of keeping pace with the cost of living. In real terms, the purchasing power of your half-million pounds actively shrank to just £472,300. This year, the asset class has recovered somewhat because the economic dynamic has flipped; with the Bank of England base rate having held high and inflation dropping down to 2.8%, a 4.5% tax-free ISA yield finally delivers a genuine, positive real return of around 1.7% above inflation, allowing the core purchasing power of that principal to slowly repair.

Building a cash ISA balance to that £500,000 mark is technically possible through historical limits and compounding over 22 years, it would have required an exceptional level of financial discipline. A saver would have needed to track changing government limits every single April since 1999, deposit the maximum allowed on day one, and actively transfer the entire accumulated pot regularly to highest-yielding providers to prevent the capital from stagnating at near-zero rates during the 2010s. I like your example but for the average saver would be implausible to produce.

I only have around £30k in my cash ISA

The US is just envious that Iran has the top spot when it comes to financing terrorists after so many years of holding the top spot itself.

Indeed, noticed, long list of contacts but without any contracts other than a minor one with a single police force.

Quote "his the same Richard Murphy who advocates savings are dead money? I think this is... He obviously not aware how Building societies work or that savings are an insurance policy against just the type of event he jumping up and down about..."

@Gunsup Your point about Richard Murphy’s "dead money" comment misses the macroeconomic context regarding inflation versus interest rates. His argument relies on a basic financial reality: when the rate of inflation exceeds the net interest rate paid on savings, the real purchasing power of that capital actively depreciates over time. In that specific scenario, holding cash as a primary asset class results in a guaranteed real-term loss. Cash savings only function effectively as a wealth-preserving asset class when the nominal interest rate commands a premium over the prevailing rate of inflation. Not liking the man doesn't mean he is automatically wrong in what he suggests.

@troublesome Your comment conflates two distinct legal concepts. Tax avoidance is a moral imperative and completely legal, whereas tax evasion is an illegal act involving dishonesty and non-declaration. Richard Murphy’s expertise actually lies in campaigning against both practices, rather than utilizing them. In terms of standard practice, even HMRC states that its objective is to ensure taxpayers pay the right amount of tax due under the law, but no more, meaning individuals and businesses are entirely entitled to utilize every legal mechanism and relief available to reduce their tax burden.

When you say comparison, do you mean in price or market cap? Definitely not in shares, as Bluestar only has 5.5 billion after the recent dilution, compared to Quantum Helium's 50 billion. For us to match their share price, we’d need a market cap of $350 million.

120 now

@Dorfan Retailers frequently focus on government policy costs when announcing restructuring, but the underlying numbers point to broader commercial and structural factors. Now the following isn't going off on a tangent its filling in the detail you have chosen to leave out.

First, the 100 convenience stores marked for closure are all legacy, company-owned outlets from the McColl’s estate, which Morrisons acquired out of administration back in 2022. As the company itself noted, these specific units have been structurally underperforming and loss-making for years, long predating recent policy adjustments.

Second, this is a repositioning rather than a wholesale retreat from the convenience market. While Morrisons is pruning 100 underperforming wholly owned stores, it is actively expanding its capital-light franchise model. The group opened over 120 new franchise stores last year and intends to add hundreds more, which contradicts the idea that the convenience sector is no longer viable.

Finally, the company's balance sheet remains heavily impacted by the debt interest costs stemming from its £10 billion private equity takeover by Clayton Dubilier & Rice in 2021, which creates a constant pressure to streamline operations and shed unprofitable legacy assets.

No news then just 114 posts sharing daily regurgitated drivel.

Price still falling I see.

@Dorfan No tangent just detail with the added bonus of circumventing certain other members of the forum with a one track rant.

@STP I recently shared an in-depth post about Lloyds Living and have also touched on other parts of the Lloyds empire when relevant to the conversation. I aim to stay on topic based on the discussion at hand. I doubt a thread called "Biscuits & Reeves" would relate to Lloyds (LLOY), unless you’re suggesting she’s moved her office into one of Lloyds’ residential properties under the Lloyds Living brand. If not, it seems you’re also not talking about Lloyds, which is rather ironic, isn’t it?

"The figures showed spending by government on benefits rose by £2.7bn from the same point last year, which the ONS said was largely caused by inflation-linked increases to many benefits."

@Dorfan You would entirely expect an increase in nominal spending, given that April marks the beginning of the financial year and the implementation of the annual inflation and earnings-linked uprating across all benefits, including the State Pension.

Given the UK's demographic profile, an actual drop in the overall benefits figure would be a more significant indicator. It would not signal a decrease in the number of eligible claimants since the pension-age population is steadily rising but would instead indicate that the government had enacted policy to either cut the actual rates paid or restrict eligibility criteria for existing benefits.

And before anyone assumes this rise is driven by immigrants claiming welfare, it's worth noting that most newly arrived immigrants have a "No Recourse to Public Funds" (NRPF) condition on their visas. This legally bars them from claiming mainstream means-tested benefits until they secure Indefinite Leave to Remain, which typically takes at least 5 years and up to 10 years for other family members. As the ONS stated, this £2.7bn jump is simply the mathematical result of inflation-linked uprating.

@harleygreen Nothing you’ve said changes the fact that the State Pension has always been considered a benefit, just as it was when you started working and paying your National Insurance Contributions. You don’t need AI to point that out it’s clearly stated on the DWP website, in its publications, and in history books, as it’s been classed as a benefit since before you began work in 1970. To get the State Pension, you must apply for it, so claiming you’ve never sought benefits or “welfare” isn’t true unless, of course, you’ve chosen not to apply for your pension.

@StockMaiden There is no evidence connecting the block on the Palantir deal to Defence Holdings (ALRT). The Mayor of London’s Office for Policing and Crime (MOPAC) blocked the £50 million contract between the Met Police and Palantir strictly due to procedural and procurement failures. MOPAC stated that the Met Police had engaged only with Palantir, failed to run an open competition, bypassed prior approval processes, and failed to demonstrate value for public money.

"How about some serious analysis as to why this will never happen. Please give us your thoughts instead of childish one liners"

@Ferring15 You posted a three-liner, but the content lacks any real analysis, and after going through your posting log, it seems to be the same throughout. Have you thought about taking your own advice and doing the same, or is that unlikely to happen?

Before you have a sulk and try a counter play my posting log is extensive, and with some time and patience, you’ll find several analyses of this and other holdings in it.

"PS any chance of you ever posting a trade up......i wont hold my breath lol......please grow up...."

Will you? As you have already stated that currently you're not holding.

"some people who may of/be exploiting the benefit system and had or having all their bills paid housing benefit etc etc etc..and have not had to contribute anything"

Don't forget some pensioners also have access to pension credits which opens them up to a whole host of other benefits. The cut off for PC eligibility is £238 plus £10,000 in savings if you're single or £363.25 per week on Joint Income so if somebody only pays 34 years or less of National Insurance credits this would make them eligible for Pension Credit, Housing Benefit or help with interest if you have a mortgage, council tax reductions, NHS dental care and glasses, and energy costs.

I'm glad to see you confirmed to the room that the state pension if a benefit along with other benefits covered through National Insurance contributions.