Member Info for asimpleinvestor

Quote "I'm holding 27883674, I'll be happy and your reticence is why you'll never ecer build generational wealth."

No, a current eight figure personal fortune is definitely not generational wealth but I'm working on it 👌

@Cevodniya You'll be glad to know I backed RR well before its massive run, and I've given it the green light again for the long term now that the UK government SMR contracts are locked in.

Securing the UK programme alongside the early-works CEZ Group deal in the Czech Republic firmly establishes Rolls Royce as the European leader in commercialised small scale nuclear tech. Structurally, this creates a resilient, non cyclical revenue stream that insulates the group from future downturns in commercial aviation. If the factory assembly thesis holds up, we are looking at high margin product scaling from the mid 2030s onwards.

The only real caveat is the current valuation: RR is trading at a premium forward P/E of 28x to 34x (depending on 2026 consensus revisions), which is substantially above its 10-year historical average of 18.1x. Because the market has re-rated the stock as a premium industrial asset, a fair amount of this long term SMR optionality is already baked into the current share price.

Consequently, the risk shifts entirely to execution. Any regulatory delays, budget overruns at the Wylfa site, or political shifts regarding nuclear funding could easily trigger a de-rating. But that’s a whole separate deep dive, so I'll leave it there.

Better to invest in SpaceX suppliers rather than SpaceX itself if you want to decent long term return on investment.

Quote "Defence spending across the UK and EU is ramping up fast. ALRT has positioned itself as the UK’s first listed software-led defence company, focusing on sovereign AI and edge analysis. That puts them right in the middle of the conversation with MOD, NATO, and the UK Strategic Defence Review."

The narrative surrounding ALRT as the UK's first listed software-led defence company relies heavily on aspirational corporate labelling rather than operational ground truth. Stripping away the marketing rhetoric reveals that the company functions primarily as a financial shell and investment vehicle rather than a functioning technology developer.

The core claim of being a software-led enterprise is contradicted by the company's lack of proprietary software intellectual property and the absence of an in-house engineering workforce. Instead of developing sovereign AI internally, ALRT outsources its technical programming entirely to a third-party agency, Whitespace, whilst holding minor equity stakes in external startups like OM Defence Systems.

Furthermore, positioning the firm at the centre of conversations with the MOD, NATO, or the Strategic Defence Review overlooks its actual financial and industrial scale. With a market capitalisation of approximately £38 million, a total headcount of around 10 people, and recent quarterly revenues of just £226,000, the company operates at a financial loss and currently lacks the infrastructure, revenue baseline, or clearances required to secure or execute major primary defence contracts.

On a macro level, the rhetoric of rapidly ramping up UK defence spending is similarly decoupled from structural reality due to compounding administrative delays. While the government publicised its Strategic Defence Review in mid-2025 with a target of reaching 2.5% of GDP, the vital Defence Investment Plan required to actually fund and implement these goals has suffered extensive delays from its original autumn 2025 deadline well into mid-2026. This prolonged budgetary deadlock and the Treasury's reluctance to allocate net-new capital have severely stalled any immediate financial surge, culminating in the recent resignation of the Defence Secretary over the systemic underfunding of the review's core mandates.

@Malcstiptop The value of assets doesn’t determine market cap; it’s calculated by multiplying the share price by the total number of shares outstanding. To add value to the shre price and ultimately the MCAP we need to be trading and currently the BoD hasn't increased asset value by so much as a penny and has in fact removed it altogether so the latest shareholder meeting doesn't prove that statement to be true in any way currently.

Quote "Thanks for you being here ASI

I do hope that you are so short on this cus you are going to be smashed so hard

The bod will make sure of that"

I don't have a short I have two sets of suspended shares in two accounts one of which belongs to my disabled daughters. It has been suspended for almost two years with absolutely no chance currently to come out of suspension as each successive DoD has done all they can to destroy value including this one. Have a laugh if it makes you feel better but all I am interested in seeing is either it coming out of suspension so I can sell or for it to go into receivership so that we can at least utilise the loss against CGT from profits elsewhere. The difference between myself and others on here is i understand the rules and understand BS when i read it.

Nobody here, whether posting positive, negative, or neutral information, has any influence over progress, as none of us have power over the proceedings. We’re all just neutral observers, an audience gossiping among ourselves. Some believe their words affect share value during trading, but we’re not trading live, so let’s be honest what’s said here has no impact on share progress.

How long is 'a while'?

I said I wouldn't do it but I've been enticed in and bought in. I spent a quid and its already up 2%. I may keep it long term maybe till tomorrow or the day after. Might become a millionaire, you never know!

The only RNS I care about is the one confirming the suspension is being removed; until that happens, everything else is just fluff.

Pete Lynch is right, rather than invest in SpaceX invest in its suppliers, as its those that will benefit from what is raised in the IPO and in the future regardless of what the share does over the coming days/weeks/months and I've already noticed a turnaround on most of those shares.

@Troajan The rate cut angle is fine, but it only tells half the story. Lower interest rates help mortgages and materials, but they don’t fix the one constraint that actually limits housebuilding, the labour gap.

The article focuses entirely on cheaper borrowing and improved sentiment for housebuilders, with rate sensitive stocks rallying on expectations of cuts. What it doesn’t touch is the structural issue there’s still a major shortage of tradespeople to build the homes in the first place. Since losing a large portion of the EU construction workforce, output has been capped by labour availability, not financing.

Until that shortage is addressed, houses simply won’t be built at the pace policymakers want, regardless of how cheap mortgages become or how bond yields move. And that means any rally driven purely by rate cut optimism will be short lived once investors realise that lower rates and cheaper materials don’t translate into higher build out or revenue if the workforce isn’t there.

@Digitalis They already do through companies such as Anthropic using Mythos 🤣

As an aside, anyone who has invested in the SpaceX IPO won't know if their bid for shares was successful or rejected until the hours preceding the share going live on the secondary market. Because allocations are handled during the morning of the listing day, unsuccessful bidders won't actually have their capital returned or available to reallocate elsewhere until that process is finalised, so the current rise has nothing to do with the SpaceX IPO

@neon This is what my AI system says: Here is the fact check of the forum post by "neon", broken down item by item against verifiable market data and company filings.

1. The Core Relationship & Supply Chain Claim: “ITM is one of the few publicly traded UK equities with a direct supply-chain line to SpaceX. They signed a massive £47.3 million ($62.5 million) contract to supply hydrogen electrolyser systems to the aerospace giant. "Verdict: Completely False / Hallucination.

The Facts: ITM Power has never announced a contract, strategic partnership, or supply agreement with SpaceX. Its recent major commercial announcements involve partnerships like the one with German defence firm Rheinmetall (for the Giga PtX project) and UK hydrogen developer Protium. Context: The specific figure mentioned (£47.3 million / $62.5 million) does not exist in ITM's regulatory filings regarding SpaceX. While algorithmic trading bots do scan for supply-chain connections, they would not find a verified link between these two entities.

2. The IPO Capital Overflow Claim: “The record-shattering $75 billion SpaceX IPO just finalized. The crucial detail for ITM is that the offering was four times oversubscribed.” Verdict: Factually Accurate.

The Facts: The historic SpaceX IPO priced at $135 per share, raising $75 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion. Financial media (including Reuters and Bloomberg) confirmed that total investor demand reached $250 billion, making the offering roughly four times oversubscribed.

3. The Flow of Funds & Capital Recycling Claim: “This means that roughly $225 billion of private, institutional, and high-net-worth retail cash that wanted a piece of Elon Musk's space/deep-tech vision was rejected and sent back to investors' accounts... Because ITM is an established SpaceX partner with deep-tech credentials, it is catching a natural wave of this recycled capital. "Verdict: Misleading Logic / Based on a False Premise.

The Facts: While it is true that nearly $175 billion to $200 billion in unallocated bidding cash was rejected/scaled back due to the oversubscription (with heavy scale-backs hit specifically on hedge funds and institutional investors), the conclusion that this money will naturally flow to ITM Power is flawed.

Context: Because the "established SpaceX partner" premise is entirely fabricated, there is no direct algorithmic or fundamental bridge causing tech-centric or space-centric capital to recycle specifically into ITM Power.

Summary: The user "neon" has taken a very real, historic financial event (the massive demand and oversubscription of the SpaceX IPO) and blended it with a completely fictional contract to create a narrative. Any recent price volatility or capital movement in ITM is driven by other macro factors or sector-specific rotations including II movement to cover SpaceX IPO obligations, not a hidden aerospace supply-chain link.

I wonder what negative spin the doomsayers will put on those figures. It looks like the numbers show an economy still growing, not slipping toward recession after all. No wonder the markets are up.

@katstrangler You must be thinking of a different ticker. The BoD here has been highly decisive, backed by a steady stream of PR and marketing. While macro economic and political tremors are out of management's control, the substantial investment from the UK government suggests policy stability isn't the issue.

The real driver behind the recent drop is institutional capital rotation, with IIs pulling liquidity at short notice to cover obligations tied to the SpaceX IPO. Once that dust settles over the coming days, we may well see some of those funds rotate back into the sector

Surprised its moved up at all on the detail of that RNS. What was discussed sounds great, now we just need to solve the equation that’s actually holding everything back.

A → B → C → A

A. QED needs Valkor’s licence‑fee payments to flow so the numbers stack up

B. Those payments depend on Valkor receiving its project funding

C. But the RNS confirms that funding still hasn’t arrived, and US$0.95m of the US$1m fee remains unpaid

A. And without that funding, the whole timetable keeps slipping

It’s a closed loop with no mechanism offered to break it. The RNS gives no timeline, no workaround, and no clarity on when Valkor’s funding will actually land. Instead, the payment date has simply been pushed out again to 30th September 2026 .

Meanwhile, QED’s equipment is ready and waiting, but deployment has been delayed because Valkor’s pilot plant commissioning has slipped to Q4 2026. The MMU delivery has also been pushed back to Q3 2026.

RMD‑style bridging doesn’t exist here QED is effectively carrying the cost while waiting for Valkor’s funding to materialise. Nothing in the RNS resolves that dependency; it just keeps the project alive while the circular delay continues and to make it worse everything posted today contradicts the update on 15th January.

Quote "I will read answers, but just because I don't reply is more a case of not wanting long drawn out discussions which both you and I will never accept the other sides view, as I know what I say is correct, no matter what facts, stats are dragged up."

How can your facts be accurate when the benefits and systems mentioned are outdated, replaced by newer ones like Universal Credit, along with stronger anti-fraud measures? These include statutory reporting by banks and other financial institutions of claimants’ financial details and changes, as they occur during the claim period and up to 6 months after the claim has ended as well as stricter procedures requiring claimants to physically prove their circumstances with official evidence. Plus, there are now different regulations governing the entire system so no point referencing something that disappeared a decade ago. Utilising such 'alternative facts' just produces an alternative reality which is far removed from the current reality as you can get.

@Birdsong Continued...

3. Disability and Motability Vehicles

The claim that a child with health conditions results in an automatic, state-funded luxury vehicle misrepresents how the Motability scheme works:

To get a vehicle, a child must be awarded the Higher Rate Mobility Component of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) or Personal Independence Payment (PIP). This requires rigorous medical assessments and independent evidence proving a severe, long-term inability to walk or profound behavioural danger.

Our daughter has two rare genetic conditions involving micro-deletion syndrome and Angelman’s syndrome, which causes severe developmental delays, intellectual disabilities, lack of functional speech movement and balance challenges, and a distinctively happy demeanour with frequent laughter, excitability, and no sense of danger. She is 10 years old with a mental age of four She needs one-on-one care around the clock and qualifies for Medium Rate Mobility, making her eligible for a Blue Badge but not for a vehicle.

If you are eligible the car is not free. To lease it, the family must completely surrender their entire mobility benefit allowance (currently £80.00 a week) directly to the Motability charity. They lose the cash to pay for the vehicle, meaning it is an exchange of vital disability funds, not an added perk. It is leased not purchased so at the end of the term it has to be given back and under new rules only covers 50% of the cost so even with the surrender of the mobility benefit still has to cover half the cost of the lease.

Approximately 16 million people in the UK live with a disability or limiting long-term illness out of which just 2 million are eligible for the award.

4. The idea that claimants can easily hide an "invisible lover" or undeclared cash income ignores the automated state surveillance introduced over recent years. Under the Public Authorities (Fraud, Error and Recovery) Act 2025, the DWP holds direct, automated powers to compel banks and financial institutions to monitor and flag accounts.

The DWP automatically screens for undeclared partners by cross-referencing financial links, shared credit applications, and recurring transfers. Similarly, unexplained cash deposits or capital total holdings passing the £16,000 cutoff limit trigger instant, automated red flags that freeze payments before an investigator even opens the file.

Ultimately, the UK welfare infrastructure is built on Real Time Information (RTI) tax tracking and strict compliance. Intentionally choosing a life on means-tested benefits results in a severe net reduction in household income and standard of living, rather than a lucrative shortcut.