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I can just imagine that we have been waiting around all this time for flow rates of 2500/3000 bopd. Blimey, drilling here started in early September - that's 6 months ago. How could anybody take so bloody long? And all the time a complete silence from the management.
"Historically Tobias wells produced 2,500-3,000 b/d, Geraldo said."
If the flow rates come out at 2,500-3,000 bopd then this won't be much to get excited about as CRCL only has an 20% interest which means 500-600 bopd net to CRCL.
The bottom appears to have been at about 0.04p last October - which is probably when the farm-out talks got serious. No one who has bought in here today has ended up in profit so far. Is that about to change? It doesn't look like it to me. Maybe if it goes back to yesterday's close at 0.125p we can all try again.
I suppose the bottom line is that CEG won't get the initial payment until the deal is approved:
" Completion and financial close of the Transaction will be subject to the satisfaction of conditions precedent and customary third-party approvals from the Uruguayan regulatory authorities, which are anticipated to take several months to finalise - the parties have commenced engagement with the regulators." So this will take several months.
Then the 3d seismic is due to be done within the original 4-year exploration period, which finishes in August 2026:
"The proposed farm-out of a 60% participating interest in the AREA OFF-1 licence to Chevron (pending regulatory approvals) aims to facilitate and fund an accelerated 3D seismic acquisition (and associated interpretation work), with the intention being that such 3D seismic acquisition will occur during the initial four-year exploration period."
Then Chevron will decide whether they will drill an initial exploration well: "Following the 3D seismic campaign, should Chevron decide to drill an initial exploration well on the AREA-OFF 1 block...." so that is not even guaranteed.
All in all good news but making real progress is still months and even years away in the future hence the lagging share price.
AJMHO
It's the MMs who need to 'get this right' by my calculations. They opened this up about 125% today and since then all it has done is fall. They need to learn to open the price at some kind of a figure that continues on from yesterday's close and sees the share price continue to rise on this excellent news. Now this is just a complete bloody mess and they should be ashamed of themselves.
The body of technical work undertaken by the Company led, through the course of 2023, to the identification and delineation of three primary prospects on AREA OFF-1, with total estimated recoverable resource (EUR) of ~ 2.0 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) across three prospects (Pmean, unrisked), and approximately 5.0 billion BBOE in an upside case (P10, unrisked).
Chevron Corporation is an American multinational energy corporation predominantly specializing in oil and gas. The second-largest direct descendant of Standard Oil, and originally known as the Standard Oil Company of California, it is headquartered in San Ramon, California, and active in more than 180 countries.
The farm-out is done, well subject to finalisation - and the only question remains: will they find oil, and in the billions of barrels predicted.
According to that Holdings Notification Jennings has 100 million warrants - probably at about 0.0021p - so that would be the Option for the 99 million shares. Quite enough profit - 5 times the cost - for them anyway.
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CRCL/tr-1-notification-of-major-holdings-ltuknlyaecp7ycb.html
This is more up-to-date - 24th January - and shows that Jennings - who I believe is a company rather than a person - has a Long Spread Bet, shares, and warrants (probably for a microscopic price of about 0.0021p). Nearly 200 million altogether as of that date.
I say just get these bloody well test results out and cut the waffle.
My take is that Jennings will look pretty stupid if the share price goes to 2p, 3p, 4p or whatever.
EXT via Karam probably know the well test result already while Jennings is in the dark along with the rest of us so the whole exercise seems a little dodgy to me.
The only thing that worries me here is what was announced in the RNS dated 31st January 2024 which I will copy and paste here as well as provide a link.
"In Q3 2023, the Company signed a non-binding term sheet (the "Term Sheet") with Sembcorp Gas Pte Ltd ("Sembcorp"), a major Singapore energy company, which outlines the core terms and serves as the basis for negotiating a definitive Gas Sales Agreement ("GSA"). Subsequent commercial negotiation between the Minister of Mining and Natural Resources and Sembcorp has resulted in both improved price formula and a delay in executing the GSA, and accordingly, Conrad has agreed with Sembcorp to delay the deadline to finalise a binding GSA (which will be subject to customary conditions precedent) by the end of Q2 2024."
According to that announcement by Conrad Asia the GSA is not due to be finalised until the end of Q2 2024 - ie. the end of June 2024 - which is over 4 months from now.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CORO/update-re-duyung-psc-0l745v0j9le0ido.html
Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Obviously, the farm down cannot be completed until the GSA is signed off and this business just seems to drag on and on and on and the thought of another 4 months of waiting around is just ridiculous.
Blimey, you're observant. It also says the purchase was for 2000 shares at 0.5p - wow, I make that £10. Certainly, all we need in an RNS!!!
0.79p to buy 20 minutes ago - now just 0.67p. Add in the huge spread - 23% - and people are desperately ramping away to try and get out without too much of a loss.
Looks like a massive spread as well - so the anticipated profits from a quick trade will not be quite as attractive as they might appear on the impulse.