Step one15 Sep 2022 20:29
I looked back at previous updates. The last one, as mentioned above, was 2017 ! In it, they said, "revenues for the financial year ended 30 June 2017 are expected to be marginally in excess of £7M (2015/16: £5.5M). Since the cost-base of the Company continues to follow a similar shallow trajectory as in previous years, both revenues and profits before tax are expected to be ahead of market expectations for the year ended 30 June 2017" So, they actually gave a figure for turnover there! Looking at my notes, forecasts in 2017 were saying revenues of 6.3m. After the update, forecasts were showing 7.06m. The actual came in at 7.25m. So that looks like a bit over 10% to me, and they only said 'ahead' (i.e. no mention of 'materially' or 'significantly'). In August 2016 they also gave a revenue number - "in excess of 5.3m", and once again simply said profits would be "ahead". Forecasts had been saying £4.8m. So, again it looks like they were about 10% ahead, and, in the end, turnover was £5.5m. In both those years, though, the high margins meant that EPS was 30-40% above forecasts. This year, they did use the word 'significantly', so we should surely expect at least 10%, if not more! So, I'm going to take a punt on 11.4m turnover, eps 150p, dividend 150p