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Coincidence - a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection.

1. GSK press release stating generic manufacturers will have the opportunity to develop manufacture and supply generic versions of cabotegravir LA for PrEP the first long acting HIV prevention medicine in 90 countries. This announcement comes just seven months after the first regulatory approval of cabotegravir LA for PrEP by the US FDA.

2. Reuter article stating cheap copies of GSK’s HIV prevention drug could be ready in 2026.

3. GSK share price dives in a rising market.

Equally important is who wants to sell. Stunning clinical results for Dostarlimab, strong phase III data for GSK’s RSV vaccine and robust performance from the GSK/Sanofi covid vaccine have put a spring in the step of the GSK share price. With the prospect of a successful demerger of Haleon and prospect of pipeline delivery the SP has held up well as the FTSE has fallen.

In my view short sellers are reading across from US retailers such as Target and betting 3i’s largest investment will struggle due to the oil/gas price shock/inflation and higher interest rates. They think consumers will tighten their belts and it will adversely impact European retailers.

Mr Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has transformed the economics of renewable electricity producers in UK/EU with the SSE share price rising from £16.75 on Feb 24 to £19.25 on May 23. A report in the FT today of a widening of the windfall tax net by Mr Johnson’s government see the SSE share price plummet £1.75 in no time to £17.50.

Yesterday at this time 8.45am 3i had plummeted £0.84 to £10.73 and recouped most of its losses to close down £0.16. A day later it’s up £0.37 at £11.76. These price movements are nothing to do with the underlying value of the business. Short sellers are hoping long term holders will capitulate. GLA.

Good article in FT today highlighting the progress GSK and Google via their tie up Galvani Bioelectronics is making with the first patient receiving an implant to control rheumatoid arthritis.

Just over a year ago Hal Barron stood up and said Vir-7831 (aka Sotrovimab/Xevudy) would be a potential blockbuster for GSK (i.e. sales of over $1bn). He had managed to gain approval for the Vir deal in an unprecedented three weeks and boldly asserted sales would commence in 2021-2022. City analysts were highly sceptical. Fast forward seven months and consensus sales forecasts in August 2021 were forecasting sales of £114m in 2021 and £16m in 2022. As COVID mutated monoclonal from Eli Lilly and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals were not expected to work against Omicron and only the GSK/Vir mAb stood tall. Fast forward to November and consensus sales had risen nearly tenfold to £680m in 2021 and £552m in 2022. GSK/Vir are struggling to keep up with demand and these forecasts are highly likely to be exceeded. Hal has moved at pace to put the people and structure in place to drive R&D decision making internally at GSK and a number external collaborations/significant investments 23 and me, British bio bank, CD226 tigit with iTeos, Surface oncology, synthetic lethality Ideaya and many other examples to boost our early stage pipeline. It is not everyday Jeff Bezos comes calling asking Hal to run his bio start up. We should celebrate and be grateful Emma managed to persuade him to succeed Patrick Vallance and put in place a valuable pipeline which will reward GSK shareholders for many years to come.

Hal Barron leaving is a big blow for GSK as he had a very special set of skills particularly in the Oncology space. Not everything turned to gold such as ICOS and Bintrafusp Alfa but this is a high risk business where deep pockets and nerves of steel are required. I have my doubts over whether Tony Wood is the right guy to make the right R&D calls but only time will tell.

I truly admire the eternal optimism of SSE shareholders. I have been a shareholder from the inception of SSE and under Ian Marchant was v happy to accumulate more shares. Probably like yourselves I have been too forgiving as I like holding SSE shares. However, when we had the last dividend rebasing (Alastair Phillips Davies speak for reDUCTION), the Chief Executives Review in the annual report with NO mention of returns on putting YOUR money where his mouth is and the car crash trading statement last July I had had enough. Elliott’s interest was sufficient to keep the SP firm late last year.I sold 90% of my SSE shares at the beginning of Nov 2021 at £16.55 and reinvested all the proceeds in 3i. This is a company that puts shareholder returns front and centre of purpose not as a tag line at the end. Imagine my amazement a few days later when Alistair Phillips Davies announces another “rebasement” to 60p a share coming. The same week 3i announced returns of 27% on shareholder funds and a 10% RISE in the dividend. The SP’s of each company reacted accordingly. I wish Simon Borrows was running SSE. GLA.

I agree with casapinos that yesterday’s announcement sets a new and hoggish baseline for the value of GSK Consumer. Previous it was reported to be valued at £40bn which represents about £5.54 per share. Now the new valuation has risen to about £6.80 per share. This would imply a Pharma valuation of £9.61 using Fridays closing price. A fair value for Pharma is over £13 using 2022 forecast earnings. Therefore a rerating by the market is likely.

With the SP rising over +28% today perhaps the derampers are a reincarnation of King Canute?!

The big picture is Emma has assembled the dream team. Hal is the real deal taking smart risks which will see the SP motor. The next milestone the BCMA readout in September. As the strategy gains credibility we will see an enormous re-rating of GSK Pharma. The oncology pipeline will be the jewel but it will take five years for the sales to come through.

It will be interesting to see which stock does best in the next five years GSK or Lloyds? I'm sure both will power ahead

I don't think ANdrew Witty has received the credit he deserves. During the last 8 years he has devised a brilliant strategy & has taken an incredibly disciplined approach to M&A (by refraining from flashy deals). He has built internal capability with 20 per cent of Pharma sales coming from new products. Brexit has led to a fundamental reassessment of the strength of this company. As a truly global business with superb franchises in respiratory & HIV and the NVS transaction providing a one time opportunity to give Vaccines and Consumer market leading positions as well as realising 10x sales for the oncology business this company could keep growing strongly for the next 37 quarters. The market will increasingly come to realise in these uncertain times what a gem it is. So well done for choosing GSK my fellow shareholders and sleep easy knowing good times are ahead for this company as it is going to grow sales and profits strongly quarter after quarter. This stock is a safe port in a storm.