Putins offramp, the Peace Agreement.16 Aug 2025 16:29
Putin has less than 12 months before he starts running into serious problems with the oligarcs and funding...and that is before further oil sanctions, this is the last fighting season. I believe he is preparing his own offramp, while he has political capital and momentum of the (temporary) war economy behind him.
It is important to listen to what Putin actually said.
"An agreement had been reached" which now transpires as a pivot from "ceasefire" to "Peace Agreement". This changes everything going forward. While Putin has blatently lied in the past, he has no room to extend the war much further.
"Recognise that Ukraine will have security guarantees" Putin acknowledges that his initial ambition of a 2 week conquer of Ukraine is now forever unacheavable as the EU is preparing to fill any void if the US starts leaving gaps...hence the wrench comment. The EU has been very clear, Putin cannot be allowed to win.
I understand the sentiment that the sp could retrace 10% given the utter inability of Trump to write and deliver a basic statesmans speech with the developments of moving to a Peace Agreement and an agreement/acceptance by Russia on US security guarantees, but these are huge developments that change the landscape in which Fxpo is going into. The sp rose on the announcement of a meeting but will retrace on the news of a Peace Agreement framework and further meetings?
Given that Zelenskyy is going to Washington on Monday it looks like this could start gathering momentum quickly with further developments.
For myself this is new news, new developments which will create a new sp which will start to price in peace.