Member Info for ARahim

The next six months we expect to have
(204 + 100) * (364/2)* 70 = $3.87m for petrol and $3.8 m to $4.5m for gas
that is $8 million for the next six months without counting the expected well coming to production.
good cash and progress

does these numbers add up?
# total revenue $5.9m
# 304,639 boe (including 37,159 bbls of oil and condensate and 1,605 MMscf gas).
# $2.1m petrol and $3.8m for gas

# that is
# (304639 - 37159)/(364/2) = 1469 gas boe
# 17159/(364/2) 204 boe petrol
# 204 daily barrel of oil average price $56 a boe
# 1469 boe gas, average price of gas boe $7.1
# why the gas price is too low?

# with current prices the income should be

204*365*75 = $5.6m for petrol
1469*365*20= $10.7 for gas

total = $16.3m

remember folks this will make $12m a year at worst. the normal expected revenue would be $20m. more petrol will push this easily to $25m year revenue. The actual costs are no where close to these figure.
the residents traders are keen to get good price to bay back before the six months figures.
sp is not going to drop folks, get your cash ready and join the party before you miss the train.

The relentless bushing is from resident traders. The hold some stock and some cash and try to maximise their holding.
The expected income 1700 boepd is:
Minimum: all gas 1700*20*365 = $12.5m
real 1500 gas + 500 petrol is $21m
the more petrol the more echo income will be. Hold tight the wave will come.

somm and ranger, try to be reasonable and don't start throwing sh*t on this bb. From last interview MH stated clearly that no interest will be paid till 2025. I guess he reads this bb and understood that dilution is not welcome by share holders even for the bank. echo is generating cash and more and more petrol will be produced. If management finds a new opportunity to acquire new concessions, raising cash to that purpose is not a dilution as it adds value to echo as well. More news to come regarding new wells back in production.
I was against passing both resolutions to send a strong message to MH against easy cash raising. but as he stated no interest will be paid till 2025 'may be discussed it further with the back' I guess the second options is good to have, given value for shareholders is kept in the first position.
sp is likely to move higher form here.

If they use these options to acquire more explorations rights that is going to move sp up as well.
but I prefer them to work on existing wells and improve cash flow.

digitt, paying 600k in equity is not the driver of sp surging up for sure. Think about it this way.
why would a bank who is in a better position to know more about echo, elects to be paid in shares?
do they want to buy at 0.60 and sell at 0.40 for instance? No, in this way they would be better be paid in cash.
why echo choose 4 well at the last year production level? I don't trust that is all they know but that is all they want us to believe and they have the upper hand to keep the lid on things as it stands. They produced an RNS after all but to serve their ends. My conclusion is if the bank is payed at 0.60 they would like to sell at 1.20 at least, and this is what is going to happen. good for the bank but good for us as well. The real news will come after payment is made. It is decided before they issued the last RNS to ask for vote.

......
No one was expecting sp changing news as we are waiting for a vote to allow CEO to allot shares. I was not expecting him to pump sp at this stage. May be two or three weeks after share allotment to the bank, sp will raise to 1.?p if all good news are released. like all ten wells are back in production and work start to bring back the rest of 35 wells.
income will experience month on month increase as more wells join in. Interest for share allocation is likely to make a three months cycle but the general trend will be controlled by quantity produced and petrol prices.
I can see this experiencing a maximum in October ('1.?p - 2.?p ) and and January may be back to 3p.

As of 23 August 2021, the recently reactivated wells have contributed to an almost 50% increase in total liquids production at Santa Cruz Sur compared to the period immediately prior to this (281 bopd gross, 197 bopd net to Echo - during the period 1 -17 August 2021). This represents an increase of 137 bopd gross, 95 bopd net to Echo and work continues to bring the remainder of the first tranche of shut-in production back online

even if more wells are back in production they only can report the first one. They have to report an average of few weeks not the first day output.
I guess this RNS is produced to ease the voting in September. where are those concerned with the vote today? Clearly they are not shareholders.

traders are selling 10% is all what they want. It will consolidate and move upward.

The first trench include 10 wells. they seem to do workovers on these wells as well to increase production. four done.
They still working on the 6 wells to bring them to production.
cash received to date is $10m.

excellent news at last. 4 well producing what was produced by 10 previously. more oil to come.
very good update.

echo is still generating cash for the 1700 boepd worth $23m. costs operational costs last year $12m. the voting is just going to give the bank the opportunity to double their payments as they are not likely to acquire share to sell them at a loss.
the likely reason is an acquisition.
voting for the acquisition option is much better than to voting for the banks conversion of interest to share.
I voted against both.
don't get afraid of loosing your investment, stand and resist manipulation.

stevomining, don't try to litter this bb by posting repeats of .... people are free to vote no if they want to. They don't have to waste time in this plan. I voted no already.

uti, by now you should know we are waiting for the news and MH is waiting for the right to allot shares for interest to the bank. If sp moves up we are likely to be shorted by the bank. so everyone is waiting for the outcome of September.
Will it MH get the right and release good news to assist his new partner make money or do not get the right and continue his grip on news.
I hope I am not right and MH is not under pressure but this is getting confirmed by the day we get forward without news.
sp will move up anyway when financial reports are out if not before by hijacked operational news.

here is the video
but be careful tom winnifrith is knowns amongst shorters as their main prophet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc_rJVhQwbw
The last attack of TW was on syme attacking it for months.
The last pump and dump I witnessed was with kod used by their finance provider but once the pump and dump finished the share sore x5.

low sp is a sweetener and keeps both side laughing. It is a strong ace in the hands of MH to lure deals but unfortunately at their expense of existing share holders. I saw many CEOs play with wreak sp to keep good tights with finance institutions. In our case if interest in transferred to share there are two option.
1) they keep shares for long term investment. This is good for echo.
2) the will use pump and dump to move sp up after each placing 'three months' to sell then they will let it drop to place again. this of course will be added by electronic fake trading 'small trades' to move sp up and down. I saw finance houses use this technique repetitive times.

who knows why. Three posters in this bb think they have a relation with echo. Those who probed the response fo share holders and those backed the yes voting to share allotment. From my side I don't see why the bondholders elect to convert interest to shares after they agreed payments will be made after 2025. I voted no. MH may be playing a hard nut and keeping a lid on the news till vote passed.
We need to know how much echo is able to save on costs after current income. No more expensive venture MH. deliver first shareholders value then we can go strategic.

I don't think we will have any dilution sooner or later.
if it is shares for interest for the bondholders, this means bondholders have faith in echo and that is good news. It is shares for cash and this is good for echo as well.
if it is shares for acquisition, this as well is not a dilution as we have value added to echo.

The main thing is it should not happen at this level of sp down to earth.
we need news to allow sp to readjust then we can deal with new eventualities. After all echo has enough income now to cover costs and do some savings to the rainy day.
After two weeks if there are no news. MH has to wait for 2022 GM to pass ...

down or up, I have no intention to fall victim to MH scare mongering. we know from his updated presentation that out put is 1700 boepd more or less. If sp drops I will add loads. No selling mate. keep your advice to yourself. If you have already sold I don't see why you are still here. change camp.