RE: 'due diligence'6 Oct 2022 19:48
Personally, agree with Clio, I fall in the somewhere in between camp rather than an extreme.
I suspect that pre-registration interest was indeed very high and no doubt fuelled by a number of traders who got their mates to register an interest in order to drive up company expectations to a point where the initial inventory order was enough to make Skinbiotherapeutics the second highest Customer for Winclove; what other explanation is there and realistically what choice did Stuart have than to place an advance order of that size, so entirely forgivable?
On the downside, Stuart did make the odd error which could have been avoided with a little research, For instance, his podcast statement and belief that the NPF had over 9 million members when that represents the predicted numbers suffering with psoriasis in the US and they certainly are NOT all members (nearer 400K), was a schoolboy mistake and may well of led to him being over optimistic in terms of future sales via this prospective partner.
However, we are where we are, the products are backed by science and work, the concerns I have surround the when substantial revenues arrive not if. For instance, I now view substantial revenue from axisbiotix via a Multi-National deal based on a Pillar negotiation as no longer short term (look at the other pillar negotiations that are still going on years later). So we are looking at Croda VIP's launching this financial year, as predicted by Stuart, to provide the funds to avoid a relatively modest placing to meet Operational plus Research commitments. If it doesn't not the end of the world because will provide substantial funds once launched, but any delay will no doubt cause short term volatility.
Again can't blame Stuart for any external slippage, and if you review Prof Cath's presentation webcast to investors when she was CEO, you will see some very optimistic commercialisation forecasts for dates now in the past.