Member Info for AquaeSulis01

An interesting set of Q&As and grateful to elric for asking them. Even though there is nothing new there, seeing the collective responses is helpful. Short term a number of scenarios may play out so trying to guess whether the share price moves further lower or higher and maybe pulls back is difficult, but longer term things look a lot more certain and positive so sitting and holding is the policy I continue to adopt. My own view on what may play out based on the Q&As and known cash position @ 30th June 2022 is:
R&D costs pared right back until WInclove complete the ACNE formulation which may be announced imminently.
Modest Fund raise announced to cover the costs of a Consumer Study to prove up the ACNE product and to progress further Oral healthcare R&D.
Proving up the ACNE formulation will provide a second Axisbiotix pillar and enable the more lucrative Pillar level agreements with a multinational to conclude
Skinbiotix revenues start to be received by Q2 which should see the company become profitable.
In summary, it may well not be a very merry Christmas but it should be a very happy New Year
p.s. I suspect the anticipated significant uplift in the Skinbio share price early in the New Year is the reason for SOH at OPTI electing to do such a small fund raise himself rather than selling more of the skinbio holdings now.

skid, from the half year report " Staffing costs increased reflecting the additions to the team in H1 but should moderate under a shared service agreement which allocates costs between ProBiotix and OptiBiotix companies equally or according to usage if materially different."

I am recently long here again LWHL as I bought back in with the intention of holding following the confirmation of the sweetbiotix scale-up by the US Partner. skid makes a valid point about lack of visibility over how certain salaries and costs are split between Probiotix Health and Optibiotix Health, but the fundraise does not come as a shock in the circumstances, just the low value raised

zebbo, did I miss the RNS announcing the convertible bond or is that heading of yours just a low grade cheap shot from someone who doesn't know what a death spiral is? Yes, selling discretionary products in the current climate is going to be an uphill struggle, and if it weren't for the upcoming launch of the second generation products, which you choose to ignore altogether, your scepticism would be justified, but that is the whole point, sweetbiotix will deliver a profit, take out the value of Skinbiotherapeutics and Probiotix Health holding and the Market Cap of Opti is nothing anyway, and who knows, after everyone has gorged themselves over Christmas we might even sell some more slimming products

Must admit elrico, if the £500K fundraise was just to fund opti's D2C strategy I would be more relaxed but it is also in part to keep the lights on. That then flags up the low value raised which wont last long assuming no major ramp-up in sales of prebiotic discretionary purchases, so does that mean: a) Sweetbiotix launch imminent which will transform income, b) Sell of Probiotix Health shares once lock-in over (will be difficult as fairly illiquid on the AQSE), or c) anticipate rise in skinbiotherapeutics share price following Croda launch and sell some holdings then?

Well the near term fundraise banana skin arrived as predicted, but just raising £500K to fund opti's D2C strategy and keep the lights on was a surprise as it wont last long. Assuming no major ramp-up in sales of prebiotic discretionary purchases, does that mean: a) Sweetbiotix launch imminent which will transform income, b) Sell of Probiotix Health shares once lock-in over (will be difficult as fairly illiquid on the AQSE), or c) anticipate rise in skinbiotherapeutics share price following Croda launch and sell some holdings then?

Just got to resolve skin's own short term cash needs now

IF the non-binding agreement goes ahead chilting you will be right, but don't hold your breath after all the non-stationary agreement came to nought, best wait for the SOEC trial with Shell

Only thing that will change sentiment and move the share price here is delivery of some of the contracts referred to in the Interim Results RNS
" Pharma services business momentum - discussions in progress with more than twenty biopharma companies offering a pipeline of opportunities for new contracts as we move through the end of this year and into 2023. Almost all potential customers are interested in bespoke assay development"

Well Phat you were right, yesterday was an interesting day England 3 Wales 0 was a seven bagger for me :)

Phat, I hope you are as wrong with this as your Ceres BB post a couple of months ago that the contracts with Weichai had been signed. Stuart took over from Cath as CEO, who ran this company on a P/T basis alongside her day job at Manchester University, with the goal of commercialising the products. Cath had already laid the foundation for the Croda deal and so arguably Stuart's major contribution to date has been the Axisbiotix launch which hasn't as yet yielded the expected returns the product warrants. I can't help compare the workload of Paul Johnson, CEO of Power Metal Resources, who has a portfolio of projects around the world to run and yet finds time to make himself available for comms and presentations on a very regular basis. It would be nice to know what Stuart with such a small team and few active products spends his time doing behind the scenes through perhaps more regular comms

For this reason James " In the interim on completion of DDH1-6B, the Company will undertake a further new shallow drill hole into target area T1-6, DDH1-6B(2), from a drill location proximal to that for the original hole KKME1-6. The new drill hole is planned to a target depth of 250m. This hole will test for the potential up dip extension (shallower) of the nickel mineralised pyroxenites identified in drillhole KKME1-6, and should help the Company to demonstrate the full extent of the mineralised system at this priority target area."

Yes but I expect England to win 3-0

Well assuming the next update is the End of Year Financials you are probably the only one looking forward to it Bel.
It will be interesting to see what Stuart has to say about what on the face of it look like a number of upcoming missed targets (extracted from End 2021 EOY Results RNS); hope I am wrong and each target is still hit by end Dec

"Key highlights

· Formulation blend of probiotic food supplement, AxisBiotix-Ps™, produced ahead of schedule

· Completion of consumer study of AxisBiotix-Ps™ with strong final results from participants who self-identified as having mild to moderate psoriasis

· Croda-SkinBiotix® programme continued to progress to plan, with focus on scaling up lysate manufacture to commercial volumes

· Potential additional cosmetic claims for SkinBiotix® being investigated. Initial royalty revenues anticipated as planned in calendar year 2022

· Placing and open offer completed in November 2020 raising £4.45m (gross)

· Cash as at 30 June 2021 of £4.6m (2020: £2.2m)



Post year end:

· Successful product launch of AxisBiotix-Ps™ 12 months earlier than intended. Early sales in the UK and US have commenced; expansion into Europe to occur in H1 2022

· Targeting acne as the next AxisBiotix opportunity; plans to develop a bacterial blend and initiate a consumer study during 2022"

So James, you conclude disappointing results at T1.6 rather than the reason already given that the very good results anticipated at T1.6 have been usurped by potential district scale opportunities demonstrated at T14?
"he conductor at target area T1-14 was originally given a lower priority B ranking due to it being slightly deeper than priority conductors found at T1-6, T2-3 and T1-3. However, following further analysis of available datasets, the following conclusions have been reached:

o The MLEM conductor modelled at target area T1-14 has been classified as a superconductor, ranking it as the strongest conductor identified at the Project to date. The conductance reading at T1-14 is akin to that of massive sulphides.

o KKME1-14 was drilled mostly within a magnetic low, which is consistent with the drillhole intersecting mostly sedimentary rock units instead of targeted mafic/ultramafic rocks (which are typically strongly magnetic and can host primary magmatic nickel sulphides).

o The MLEM superconductor now modelled at target area T1-14 has a discrete shape. If the graphitic mudstones were the cause of the conductor identified at this target area, it would be expected that this conductor would be flat-lying, consistent with the typically very flat-lying and continuous nature of Transvaal sedimentary units within the Molopo Farms Complex.

o Three dimensional ("3D") modelling of KKME1-14 shows that it intersected only the edge of the newly identified superconductor.

§ The combination of the ground MLEM and airborne EM geophysics datasets into a single 3D model has enabled a geological model to be developed. This is interpreted to show a geological contact zone between mafic/ultramafic magmatic intrusive rocks and potentially sulphur rich sedimentary rocks (as signified by overlapping highly magnetic and conductive bodies). Melting of the sedimentary rocks at this intrusive contact zone could have led to magma mixing, differentiation, and contamination that triggered sulphide saturation and the segregation of an immiscible sulphide melt which could have resulted in the accumulation of massive sulphide mineralisation. It appears that this prospective, highly conductive, contact zone was not intersected by the previous drillhole KKME1-14.

§ As a result of further integration and analysis of available datasets, target area T1-14 has been upgraded by the Company to Priority A+ status and a 700m drillhole (DDH1-14A) is now planned following the completion of DDH1-6B(2). It is estimated that the superconductor could be reached at a downhole depth between 450-500m."

Taking place on 29th Nov with Sederma and Manchester Uni represented.

Interestingly Unilever's Michael Hoptroff is giving the skin microbiome and ageing keynote speech but he seems blindsided by the breakthrough already made by Prof Cath O Neill with skinbiotix to deliver a probiotix as a lysate to ensure its properties are retained through its shelflife if you read his article under the "Prebiotics and age related concerns" paragraph.
https://summit-events.com/assets/img/events/AA-Skincare-Conference-Programme_2022-08-11-132735_rchr.pdf

https://www.cosmeticsdesign-europe.com/Article/2022/07/05/Unilever-talks-skin-microbiome-innovation-investment-and-opportunities-in-beauty

elrico, SOH has previously told us that the aim of the US partner was to deliver sweetbiotix within 10% the cost of sugar not lower. Whilst the Govt delays to introducing sugar reduction measures are lamentable, there are pressure groups out there who are keen to hold them to account and surely the fact that an increase in fiber is not just removing a negative but is positively beneficial, will see the likes of Coca Cola and Kelloggs keen to jump before they are pushed by legislation
https://www.sustainweb.org/news/may22-govt-delay-obesity-plan/

Regarding TW, I would rather listen to someone who has wide experience in the markets, has made mistakes, owned up and hopefully learnt from them, than someone who claims never to had made a mistake before. He has consistently called out a number of frauds and distressed companies way before and many times in contradiction to the mainstream press. That said, he can be blinkered when commentating on companies he has a financial interest in and Opti is a classic case where despite warning about other companies trying to maintain revenue associated with discretionary purchases in a recessionary climate, he ignores the fact that Opti's prebiotix slimming products fall into that category. Shiraz Butt certainly has his work cut out to deliver anything like his future online sales predictions in the current climate and he has probably done well just to stand still with sales over the last 5 months (just over 200 orders per month based on my historic order numbers which includes probiotic sales), but at least the marketing spend and salary costs are being split 50/50 with Probiotix Health. One thought on the marketing front, it might be worth Shiraz promoting Slimbiome Medical as a "non-invasive" temporary gastric band which is the function it appears to have been designed to fulfil

Joy something has happened, I submitted the question before the Investor Meets presentation regarding whether the optimisation of the scale-up by the US Partner had concluded, and to my amazement SOH confirmed it had so expect sweetbiotix launches in 2023 which will be transformational and is the reason I bought back in last week at 18.70p and have not sold a single share following at one point a 17% profit uplift this morning. to be fair, there are a couple of near term banana skins to negotiate IMO possible deterioration in the value of those skinbio holdings if they announce a fundraise because of revenue delays to skinbiotix launch, Opti also may well need to raise funds in the near term to fund the extra marketing costs

There was another plug on TW's ************* website yesterday forecasting £1 down the road with quite a compelling case to support it.