Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
Stop sitting on the fence HumptyDumpty, it wont end well for you, perhaps shares in Shell might be more up your street? :)
Taken from the Croda Results RNS today under Strategic Update, hopefully one of the Big Bet Projects spoken of , the launching of novel anti-ageing actives developed through collaboration between our biotech and high throughput screening centres in the UK, France and Canada, is ours.
Innovation is at the heart of what we do, creating new market and technology niches. We filed more than 100 new patents in 2023 and have stepped up our rate of innovation through more external partnerships, for example with Amyris and BSI for sustainable vaccine adjuvants. Even in the unprecedented market conditions that we have seen this year, customers are continuing to invest in new product development, drawing on Croda's deep scientific expertise and application-focused innovation. The foundation of our innovation model is internal R&D investment, applying the expertise of our scientists at our global innovation centres to meet customer needs. Our R&D teams now report directly into Consumer Care and Life Sciences, ensuring that our priorities are customer driven. This is complemented by 'big bet' projects often delivered with partners from our open innovation network which provides access to universities and SMEs, helping develop new intellectual property.
Strategic priorities
We are implementing specific strategic priorities to ensure our refocused portfolio delivers consistent top and bottom-line growth. Alongside our sector strategies we are (1) scaling biotech, (2) exploring acquisition opportunities to supplement organic capital deployment, (3) investing in fast growth in Asia, and (4) improving our customer and employee experience through our 'doing the basics brilliantly' programme.
'Scaling biotech' will transform our approach to sustainability, particularly in reducing customers' scope 3 carbon emissions. Projects are underway to develop bio-based fragrance ingredients, prioritising aroma chemicals which are used in a high proportion of our fragrance references. Our Beauty Care business is adding biotech-derived surfactants to our existing ECO range, and Beauty Actives is launching novel anti-ageing actives developed through collaboration between our biotech and high throughput screening centres in the UK, France and Canada.
Slimbiome fibres retail at £30k per tonne
Baz, what you need to appreciate is that these promising results are after 35 days and Skin replenishes every 40-56 days which means results will either be a lot more impressive or not so good, hence the caveat, but I know which outcome I am betting on
A reminder of the stated aim for each B/U to be profitable at least on a month by month basis by end 2023; From 2023 Aug Commercial Update; “Stephen O'Hara, CEO of OptiBiotix Health plc said: "We are making good progress on our aims of getting existing partners returning to forecast, bringing in new partners, particularly in the USA and Asia, and expanding e-commerce channels to grow online sales and reduce partner dependency. This is all part of plans for each business unit (USA, India, Ecommerce, B2B) to reach operational profitability, at least on a monthly basis by the end of the calendar year.”
So at the very least we should have been provided with the position for each B/U but we were only told about one B/U, e-commerce "E-commerce sales for 2023 were 287% up on 2022 driven by strong growth in China of gummies and large increases in Amazon Prime subscriptions. This progress led the consumer health business to profitability in October and November 2023". We know the first meaningful US order slipped into 2024 so probably mainly the royalty payment from the US partner circa £85K in 2023 for sweetbiotix. Any H&B and THG sales percentage increases are coming off a very low base, 2022 figures with a rough guess of how much to reduce regional sales for to allow for PBX sales inclusion are as follows;
Probiotix £24,000.00
Functional Fibres £433,000.00
TOTAL £457,000.00
Functional fibres by Region
UK (minus est £5000 PBX sales) £127,000.00
India £61,000.00
ROW (minus est £4000 pbx sales) £160,000.00
US (minus est £15000 PBX sales) £85,000.00
TOTAL £433,000.00
On the plus side, and it is a big plus, 2024 looks to be much healthier and the launch of sweetbiotix will be a game changer
Thanks BK, translation of the page below
"Dual-Level Support: SymbioLife® Cholesterol Control* provides support to our body on two levels, naturally normalizing cholesterol levels.
It contains the bacterium Lactobacillus plantarum LPLDL®, harnessing the significant impact of natural bacteria on our health. Intestinal bacteria, particularly of the Lactobacillus genus, can regulate our cholesterol levels by binding to cholesterol or incorporating it into their own cell membranes.
The specific intestinal bacterium Lactobacillus plantarum LPLDL® also increases our excretion of bile acids. As a result, our body produces more bile acids, which are essential for fat digestion, and in turn, removes cholesterol from the blood.
In addition to this, SymbioLife® Cholesterol Control contains phytosterols*, secondary plant compounds that possess a structure similar to cholesterol. When we consume phytosterols, our intestinal wall transports them into our body instead of cholesterol.
The remaining cholesterol in the intestine is then excreted with the stool, leading to a decrease in cholesterol levels"
Agree Dire, guess we have to wait for the partner to set up its manufacturing capability before an eventual launch then
Seed Health never announced the outcome of their clinical study into DS01 for treating Irritable Bowel Syndrome despite the clinical study finishing over a year ago so guess may well have been inconclusive which is a pity
Isn't this the same agreement announced in the Sep Results RNS?
" Closing of long-term commercial agreement with third largest supplement brand in Germany. The agreement is aiming at launching CholBiome® CH - our newest product line extension - in Germany during Q4 this year. The launch will eventually be broadened to include Austria and Switzerland."
Mol, because you do not subscribe to TW and his comments regarding the Cavendish broker forecast through to 2026 which he also provided access to, you will not appreciate the full context of the out of the blue comment you referenced. Of course SA would have known about this deal when carrying out DD an agreeing the price, what he didn't know was which year the partner would be ready to launch. As I have previously stated, the Indian market is huge and potentially will pay for the agreed fee many times over, we shall see.
In other words, there can be a number of years between a partner starting the manufacturing process until they are ready to supply and launch.
Mol, I suggest you look at a similar manufacturing, supply and distribution agreement signed by Optibiotix with Agropur on 24th Jan 2019 for slimbiome in the USA, Canada and Mexico which I believe and other such agreements that are still to conclude, to understand why the announcement that the launch has taken Skinbio by surprise and hence why it could not be included in the forecasts.
Thanks Clio, and I have always been sure it was not but just imagine how very different the market reaction would have been if Stuart had made it crystal clear in the RNS using those very words. At least this BB can now appreciate the potential of this announcement and how it changes the roi calls that TW has used to declare the acquisition is not accretive when it is odds on that it most certainly will be. Let's hope for one of those glorious RNS's a few months down the line that revenues from the Dermatonics acquisition will be materially more than market expectationd
Couldn't agree more elrico. I have demonstrated the size of the Indian market alone for the once heel foot balm in previous posts. What people need to consider is that Modi have paid for the manufacturing capability and will ensure marketing spend and targeting is aimed at maximising the return on investment they have made. TW has taken the line that because of the wording in the RNS infering no change to current market expectations as meaning it is already in the recent Cavendish projections, overlooking the fact that it may it likely came out of the blue and they have not had time to properly consider the actual impact. Well look at the Cavendish projections yourselves and see whether you can see a large uptick to represent a major breakthrough in this huge Indian market already there. My only criticism of SA is this is not the first poorly worded RNS that leaves investors to speculate what it actually means in terms of future prospects, just a pity we have to wait a couple of months for the next investor meets to gain clarity when previously elrico or TW could have taken swifter action on behalf of us all to resolve.
Had wondered about the language used in the Asia link "In the end, what stands out is not just the promise of improved foot health but the broader implications of such partnerships in the healthcare sector. By combining expertise and resources, SkinBioTherapeutics and the Umesh Modi Group are not just launching products; they are setting a precedent for international collaboration aimed at solving pressing health issues. As we watch the ripple effects of this launch unfold, it's clear that the journey towards better health care is a shared one, fortified by the bonds of innovation and compassion."
Until I came across these facts and realised the potential impact of manufacturing in India an affordable (for low income families) product to help prevent Diabetic Foot Ulcers and subsequent amputations if not prevented and treated:
"Globally, an estimated 463 million adults are living with diabetes; India, with 77 million patients, has the second-highest number of patients after China [1]. Diabetic foot disease represents a real challenge to national health systems and healthcare providers in general [2]. The lifetime risk of a person with diabetes having a foot ulcer has been reported to be as high as 25%, with foot ulcers being the most frequent reason for hospitalization of patients with diabetes (about 30%) [3]. Moreover, treating diabetic foot ulcers is costly, accounting for 20% of total healthcare costs for diabetes, which is more compared to the cost for any other diabetic complication [3]. In India, the numbers of diabetic foot patients are increasing in both urban and rural settings, with 85% of amputations preceded by foot ulcers. Almost 75% of these amputations are performed on neuropathic feet with secondary infection, which is potentially preventable. In India, neuropathic lesions account for 80% of foot ulcers, with neuroischemic making up the remaining 20% [4]. The prevalence of the peripheral arterial disease is 3.2% in diabetic patients aged 80 years, with the increase being associated with both age and the duration of diabetes [5]. In India, approximately 100,000 legs are amputated every year, and the numbers are increasing [3]."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7364422/
The view from Asia of the deal
"The choice of markets for this launch is no mere coincidence. Regions like India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nigeria are not only densely populated but also exhibit high prevalence rates of diabetes, making them ripe for innovative solutions like Pheet and Dermatonics Once Heel Balm. This strategic expansion is a testament to the partners' commitment to addressing unmet needs in dermatology and diabetes management, setting a new standard in healthcare access and quality. Looking Ahead: Prospects and Expectations
As SkinBioTherapeutics and the Umesh Modi Group embark on this venture, the eyes of the world are on them, awaiting the impact of their breakthrough products on the foot care industry. With a total addressable market of over £5bn at their fingertips, the stakes are high, but so are the expectations. The successful rollout of Pheet and Dermatonics Once Heel Balm could not only redefine foot care standards but also pave the way for further innovations in healthcare, benefiting millions of people across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
In the end, what stands out is not just the promise of improved foot health but the broader implications of such partnerships in the healthcare sector. By combining expertise and resources, SkinBioTherapeutics and the Umesh Modi Group are not just launching products; they are setting a precedent for international collaboration aimed at solving pressing health issues. As we watch the ripple effects of this launch unfold, it's clear that the journey towards better health care is a shared one, fortified by the bonds of innovation and compassion."
https://bnnbreaking.com/world/asia/skinbiotherapeutics-and-umesh-modi-group-gear-up-to-revolutionize-foot-care-in-asia-middle-east-and-africa
Pretty sure that this was not factored in to the recent Cavendish forecast for Dermatonics when calculating just how accretive it would be for Skinbio. There was a reference to Asia and Eastern Europe in the Cavendish forecast As follows "Revenues – We expect ‘Dermatonics’ to launch a range of its products in the US via the Amazon
platform and for this to be a key driver of revenue growth in FY25E. Such growth is expected
to be supported by growth in Asia and Eastern Europe and on-going growth in the domestic
market, particularly to the NHS and podiatrist clinics." but that I would suggest purely refers to existing exports to Vietnam and the Baltics, there is no mention of the Middle East and Africa which the modi partnership will cover in addition to the wider Asia Market so suggest Cavendish and TW will both need to revisit their calculators for FY's 25 and 26 and that's excluding the benefits that may well drop for Axis and Skinbiotix products from this new partnership.
Well said Disco and Med. When Stuart was appointed by the Skin Board it came with this reason
"Prior to Onbone, Stuart was President/CEO of Andover Healthcare Inc., a US-based wound management manufacturer, and before then, was President/CEO of TI Group, a UK-based medical/engineering company. Stuart also served as Senior VP, Global Sales & Strategic Marketing, BSN Medical (Biersdorf, Smith and Nephew) and was Director of Sales & Marketing at Smith & Nephew Plc, in its Woundcare, Casting & Bandaging division. In these roles, Stuart gained extensive experience of both direct sales management across multiple geographies, and of business to business selling. He has also been involved in M&A transactions and has achieved considerable commercial success in both small and large companies.
Prior to his career in industry, Stuart served in the armed forces. He has an MBA and a BSc in Business & Management.
Martin Hunt, Non-Executive Chairman of SkinBioTherapeutics, commented:
"On behalf of the Board of SkinBioTherapeutics, I look forward to welcoming Stuart to the team and for his transition into the CEO role. His proven track record with both SMEs and larger public companies in Europe and the US will be essential in driving the Company forward as we progress our first product towards commercialisation. He has a considerable network within the medtech and life science industries and he has the experience and drive to take us forward on the next stage of the Company's development."
Note the M&A mention and the need to drive the Company forward not passively wait for revenue to come our way which most certainly would not warrant paying big bucks, so do nothing was never really a credible option. Only time will tell whether the acquisition made and to come will lead to the sum of the parts turning the Company profitable by the Year End, but as Disco said it is far too early to judge success or failure at this juncture.
Disco, beat me to the punch on that one. Bubs other short term announcements expected:
From the Results RNS
- AxisBiotix for Acne
- The study involves 300 UK-based participants with acne-prone skin, 150 randomly selected participants will receive product 1, the other half of the group will receive product 2. Online recruitment of participants will start via a pre-qualification questionnaire form.
The products will be mailed to participants who are expected to record their experience of using the product in a weekly questionnaire over eight weeks, over which they are expected to take the product daily. A follow-up questionnaire will be provided one month after the participants stop taking their allocated product. The study is expected to be completed and results reported by the end of Q1 2024.
Oral Health Care Study
Three different actives, and a number of components have been investigated with differentiated activities that offer a route to oral care products with different protective actions on the hard and soft tissues of the oral cavity. This current phase of the programme ends in January 2024 and the company will work with the University to publish relevant findings in H1 2024, and the remainder of the details of the next phase programme through to commercialisation. This lysate is different to that of SkinBiotix.
From the Update on Transactions RNS
Further Acquisition
The Company is also in advanced due diligence on another target which is a manufacturer within the dermatology market in the UK. The management believes that this acquisition also has the potential to be completed in early 2024.
From the Investor Meets Presentation:
Dermatonics Once Heel Balm
The results for the New Cross Hospital trial for the Dermatonics Heel Pressure Ulcer trial are expected imminently
Certainly ties in with Cath's research Toyin, this from the EOY Results RNS; "The inflammation study is still underway. It is looking at how the microbiome can influence and balance the body's response to inflammation specifically related to harmful UVR (sunlight) light. Several first-in-class findings have been made on the effects of bacterially derived components and their ability to regulate the cytokine mediated inflammatory response associated with exposure to UVR. These results strongly support the use of bacterial actives in protecting the skin from sun exposure and a breakout patent filing has been made by the company on a lead active.
The company continues to work with the University of Manchester in further validating these and other findings and in advancing the technology toward human trials. The programme has delivered very encouraging results and has been expanded and extended to allow for the actives identified to be validated in propriety human skin models. The programme will run until June 2025. "