Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Principles

Not a Zak Mir fan but need to differentiate his charting ability which is sound enough from his morals and principals which appear somewhat dubious.

Worth bearing in mind:

"Key Roles of Charting in Prediction

Identifying Trends and Momentum: Charts help traders visualize whether a stock is in an uptrend, downtrend, or moving sideways. This allows for momentum trading—buying during upward trends and avoiding or selling during downtrends.

Establishing Support and Resistance Levels: Charts reveal key price levels where a stock historically stops falling (support) or stops rising (resistance). These psychological levels help predict potential reversal points.

Spotting Patterns: Chartists look for specific patterns (e.g., head and shoulders, double tops, triangles, flags) that often precede predictable movements, aiding in forecasting breakouts or breakdowns.

Timing Entries and Exits: While fundamental analysis helps determine what to buy, charting is heavily used to determine when to buy or sell.

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Because many market participants use the same indicators (e.g., RSI, 200-day moving average), the signals generated can become self-fulfilling, as widespread buying or selling at these levels drives the price in the predicted direction.

Investopedia

Investopedia

+6

2. Effectiveness and Limitations

Short-Term vs. Long-Term: Technical analysis is considered highly effective for short-term, intraday, or swing trading, but far less effective for long-term investing.

Not Foolproof: Charts are retrospective, meaning they show what has happened, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Subjectivity: Interpreting chart patterns can be subjective; two traders may see different patterns, leading to conflicting predictions.

False Signals: Charts can produce "whipsaws"—signals that suggest a move, only for the price to reverse quickly, causing losses.

Ignore Fundamentals: Charting ignores company fundamentals, such as earnings, revenue, and management quality, which are critical for long-term valuation.

This is the bit that Zak Mir ignores when pushing out his predictions:

3. Modern Usage and Integration

In 2026, technical analysis is rarely used in isolation by professionals. It is commonly blended with fundamental analysis (for selection) and macroeconomic data (for context) to create a more robust trading strategy.

Lord we have been told many things but as they say "seeing is believing"

Folks will wait for the Commercial and Trading Update. If it follows the usual pattern of being very opaque (see last two update for Feb 24 and Mar 25) then nothing will happen until what will be seen as the inevitable fund raise / selling off of shares takes place to balance the books likely in April or May before the detailed results are published in June (also see previous years). H&B have now fully discontinued their slimexpert range and the bulk of revenue is now generated from ingredient sales which comes with lower margins. The Company needs a launch of its sweetbiotix products to take place but the best we can hope for in the near future is a small batch run so investors can sample it which was being aimed H1 this year

Looks a solid enough appointment

https://cosmeticsbusiness.com/kmi-brands-ceo-leaves-after-16-years

Mindful that Croda mentioned specifically Asia as well as Europe in relation to zenakine launches, awareness of zenakine being raised there.

"Biotech companies are also investing heavily. In the UK, Croda International and SkinBioTherapeutics introduced Zenakine, a neuroactive ingredient designed to boost melatonin, improve sleep, and reduce skin stress.

“Growing awareness and increasing consumer preference for neurocosmetics will provide manufacturers with significant opportunities and enable them to differentiate themselves from competitors,” said Khan."

https://retailasia.com/news/rising-stress-awareness-fuels-growth-in-neurocosmetic-skincare-market

Great find Toyin, and note that whilst Serbian based it supplies its products to Croatia, Bulgaria, Montenegro and Greece

Net, I suggest you read the content of slide 26 in the Croda technical slides "Zenakine promotes the neosynthesis of

extracellular matrix components, stimulating

skin regeneration.

At 3 %, it increases the production of:

- Collagen I by 36 % * and collagen IV by 67 %*

- Fibronectin by +20 %* and laminins by 26 %*"

Zenakine sends chemical messengers to the brain which increases the collagen produced naturally so you do NOT need supplements to produce it artificially.

https://www.skinbiotherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Croda-Beauty-Actives_Technical-seminar-theatre-4_8th.pdf

Obone, it was the potential recurring loss of £770k that spooked investors who await to see what the recurring figure will be and when it is likely to commence.

in terms of the once off reversal, it actually had even less impact on finances because of admin costs reversals as well:

The Royalty Reversal

Following the reversal of the Accrued Royalty figure of £0.77M from the Reported Revenues for 2025 we were told that in addition to the new revenue figure being £3.87M the operating loss was now (£1.47M).

In the original accounts based on the £4,638,147 revenue figure the operating loss was reported as (£1,123,135) hence, the operating loss only increased by £0.347M following the £0.77M revenue reversal which means there must have been an offsetting admin cost reversal of £0.423M as well relating to straight line depreciation of the patent asset. So with the operating loss since the Interims increasing from £1,035,459 to the revised reported figure of £1,470,000 at Year End, £434,541 represents a monthly operating loss of just £72,423

Cash Impact

The cash balance as at 30 June 2025 of £4.8m (2024: £0.8m) which is representative of the addition of BTS to the group and the successful Placing and WRAP Retail Offer in August 2024 and June 2025 raising £1.56m and £4.2m respectively, was not impacted by the Royalty Accruals reversal. The latest cash position of £2.92m as at 13 February 2026 is largely as a result of the cost of inventory for the Superdrug Rollout and upgrade to BTS equipment to support future formats of Axisbiotix-ac in a capsule format and is not reflective of normal monthly cash burn.

Not sure it is based on the samples Clio but could well be forecasts were presented as confirmed orders by SA to Auditors and the Board. Just get the feeling the £769K will have been based on some factual information which will eventually lead to payment

There are two potential Dermatonic growth factors; acceleration in Umesh Modi sales as they rollout across the full geographical footprint and further NHS take up of Once Heel Balm.

I agree shychap, so to quote Keith Lemon in through the keyhole let's look at the cluesies to establish what has likely happened here.

1. The £769k accrued royalty figure is very precise and hence likely based on an actual Croda sales figure, however, it's payment is likely triggered by a minimum annual sales threshold.

2. The Singer revenue Market Forecast of £5.1M clearly and rightly as it transpires, excluded any royalty contribution.

3. Ashman would have realised that revenues from the acquisitions and axisbiotix sales were going to materially miss market forecasts, anticipated that the minimum annual sales threshold for Zenakine would be hit, and sought to mask the revenue miss to some extent by including the royalty accrual figure prior to any Cross confirmation of sales hitting the threshold.

So the issue is likely one of timing and hopefully that is what the audit will reveal

Still puzzled why they play down the increase in natural collagen production, maybe to disguise the fact that you don't need matrixyl as a separate ingredient anymore. https://www.skinbiotherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Croda-Beauty-Actives_Technical-seminar-theatre-4_8th.pdf

It's not a nothing burger but it was a known upcoming trial. A successful outcome leading to further trials would certainly move the dial here in terms of the sp, hopefully for investors they wont have to wait too long to find out how successful or otherwise the trial has been

"Potential Impact:

This project has significant scientific, clinical, and commercial potential. It will generate the first RCT evidence on using pre-operative prebiotics to improve cardiac surgical outcomes, addressing a major gap in recovery research. Findings could show reductions in complications, hospital stay, and NHS costs, supporting wider adoption of microbiome-based interventions.

The study will also guide the development of next-generation WellBiome products by identifying beneficial bacterial strains, strengthen NHS–industry leadership in microbiome-focused surgical optimisation, and provide a foundation for larger trials across multiple surgical specialities."

https://research.reading.ac.uk/inform-innovation-hub/fs-hobkirk/

Look at my posting history and you will see the tracked figures for the rollout. Regarding cash burn for normal operations, currently just a £72k per month deficit since the full integration of BTS

Superdrug launch which was why £4.2M was raised.

Nothing wrong with your vertical integration model but it was very much Ashman's baby started with a death spiral last my before Bairstow came on the scene. Incidentally MD the largest shareholder owns over 20% of the Company based on last TR1 up date https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SBTX/holdings-in-company-g1awm94qalzpvxc.html

Shandypants, you appear to be confusing the 13% improvement in sleep quality across all the sample group with the number it effectively improved sleep for. If you take the trouble to comment here might be worth getting your facts straight

Thanks for pointing out the Auditor notes against revenue mol, beggars belief the wording is so loose and inaccurate when you consider the actual revenue sources as highlighted in the End of Year Rns'd accounts was as follows;

"h) Revenue recognition

Revenue consists of internet sales, in addition to postage receipts, as well as sales to a range of distributors, national pharmacy chains and wholesalers, with the Group acting as the Principal in all arrangements. Revenues are recorded net of an appropriate deduction for actual and expected returns, sales discounts and sales taxes.

Revenue is recognised on the satisfaction of performance obligations and an assessment of when control is transferred to the customer. This is on dispatch of goods to the customer.

Royalty income is recognised on an accrual basis in accordance with the terms of the underlying royalty agreement. Revenue is measured based on the consideration to which the company expects to be entitled, calculated as a percentage of sales. Royalty income is recognised when it is probable that economic benefits will flow to the company and the amount can be reliably measured."

Toyin, Actually have some good news to report. I have just gone through the Phase 1 Superdrug Stores and there has been a big improvement in the number of stores shown as at least having some stock of Axisbiotix-ac.

On 20th Dec 25 the position was; No Stock 80, Low Stock 73, Stock 27

On 24th Jan 26 the position was; No Stock 76, Low Stock 62, Stock 42

On 18th  Feb 26 the position is; No Stock 21, Low Stock 117, Stock 42