Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Ox, we know the morpheus range has been launched in Poland and we also know they have sold next to nothing because the marketing campaigns have yet to be initiated by the big boys with deep pockets, although hopefully elric's recent bulk order via contacts with family in Poland, because that is the only way you can buy it, will have at least doubled their sales.

Companies to look out for and why:

Most Probable First Movers (Ranked)

1. Dermalogica

2. Filorga

3. Comfort Zone (Davines)

4. Amorepacific (Laneige/Sulwhasoo)

5. Paula’s Choice

6. Murad

7. Elemis

8. Skinfix

9. Dr. Jart+

10. Allies of Skin

Tier 1: Strong, Repeated Croda Active Users

These brands consistently use Croda Beauty Actives or Croda adjacent functional ingredients. They are your highest probability Zenakine adopters.

Dermalogica

Croda actives used historically:

• Matrixyl® peptides (via Sederma, a Croda company)

• Resistem™ (plant stem cell active)

• Pacifeel™ (sensitive skin neuro calming active)

• Phytessence™ actives (botanical extracts)

Why it matters:

Dermalogica is one of Croda’s most reliable early adopters for neuro skin and barrier calming actives. Zenakine fits their “skin stress” narrative perfectly.

Filorga

Croda actives used:

• Matrixyl® 3000 / Matrixyl® Synthe’6

• Chronodyn™ (cell energising active)

• Citystem™ (anti pollution active)

Why it matters:

Filorga loves neuro cosmetic and cellular behaviour actives. Zenakine’s mechanism is directly aligned with their “skin fatigue” and “cellular stress” positioning.

Comfort Zone (Davines Group)

Croda actives used:

• Resistem™

• Citystem™

• Sederma peptides

• Botanical actives from Croda’s Crodarom line

Why it matters:

Davines has a deep sustainability partnership with Croda. They routinely adopt Croda actives early and build hero SKUs around them.

Paula’s Choice

Croda actives used:

• Matrixyl® peptides

• Resistem™

• Pacifeel™

• Crodafos™ emulsifiers (functional)

Why it matters:

Paula’s Choice is extremely ingredient led and transparent. They adopt new actives quickly when the science is strong.

Tier 2: Medium–Strong Croda Active Users

These brands use Croda actives regularly but not as aggressively as Tier 1.

Murad

Croda actives used:

• Chronodyn™

• Citystem™

• Resistem™

Why it matters:

Murad’s “stress and inflammation” narrative is a natural fit for Zenakine.

Elemis

Croda actives used:

• Resistem™

• Citystem™

• Crodarom botanical extracts

Why it matters:

Elemis blends sensorial luxury with biotech actives — a perfect match for Zenakine’s neuro wellness angle.

Dr. Jart+

Croda actives used:

• Pacifeel™

• Resistem™

• Matrixyl® peptides (in some SKUs)

Why it matters:

Their barrier science positioning (Cicapair, Ceramidin) aligns with Zenakine’s stress recovery mechanism.

It's not on general sale yet disco and certainly wont be the World's best kept secret when the VIP's do launch it.

Suggested timescale and battle order using AI as follows:

• April 2025: Zenakine publicly launched as a Croda Beauty Active at in cosmetics Global (Amsterdam). 2

• Croda’s typical cadence for premium actives (Matrixyl class, Luceane class) is roughly:

o 0–6 months: NDAs, lab sampling, concept formulas only

o 6–12 months: first quiet INCI appearances, no big PR

o 9–18 months: first brand level PR + DTC pages

o 12–24 months: retailer level narratives + clinical claims campaigns 13

You’re now in Feb 2026, i.e. ~10 months post launch—right on the cusp of first public brand disclosures.

2. Channel by channel timing (relative to April 2025)

INCI lists (quiet technical disclosure)

• Window: ~Month 7–18 (Nov 2025–Oct 2026)

• Pattern:

o Early: niche DTC / indie brands, K Beauty ODM launches

o Mid: EU dermocosmetics (Filorga type), spa brands (Comfort Zone type)

• Your working assumption:

o By mid 2026, first Zenakine INCI entries likely exist in low visibility SKUs.

o By late 2026, at least one Tier 1 advocate (Dermalogica / Filorga / Paula’s Choice) has a Zenakine INCI live.

Press releases (brand level narrative)

• Window: ~Month 10–24 (Feb 2026–Apr 2027)

• Pattern:

o First wave: science heavy brands (Filorga, Dermalogica, Paula’s Choice)

o Second wave: Murad, Dr. Jart+, Comfort Zone

• Assumption:

o Q2–Q3 2026: first “neuro stress” or “sleep skin” press releases explicitly naming Zenakine.

o 2027: broader cluster of brands referencing “Croda’s Zenakine” in launch PR.

Retailer product pages

• Window: ~Month 12–30 (Apr 2026–Oct 2027)

• Pattern:

o Early: DTC + retailer pages for Paula’s Choice, Dermalogica, Filorga

o Then: Sephora, Ulta, Douglas, French pharmacies

• Assumption:

o Mid 2026: first retailer pages where Zenakine appears in INCI but not yet heroed in copy.

o 2027: retailer filters/landing pages start using “neuro calming” / “stress skin” language tied to Zenakine SKUs.

Social media ingredient narratives

• Window: ~Month 12–30 (Apr 2026–Oct 2027)

• Pattern:

o First: brand owned channels (Paula’s Choice, Dermalogica, Dr. Jart+)

o Then: derm influencers, K Beauty creators, ingredient science accounts

• Assumption:

o Late 2026: first visible “What is Zenakine?” posts from brands or derm influencers.

o 2027: TikTok/IG trendlets around “neuro calming peptide” or “sleep skin active”.

Clinical claims marketing

• Window: ~Month 15–36 (Jul 2026–Apr 2028)

• Pattern:

o First: Filorga, Murad, Dermalogica (sleep quality, stress markers, wrinkle depth, redness)

o Then: broader dermocosmetic and spa brands

• Assumption:

o Late 2026 / early 2027: first “clinically proven to reduce visible signs of stress on skin” claims explicitly tied to Zenakine.

o 2027–2028: multi claim campaigns (sleep quality, mood skin, barrier recovery).

Then I can only conclude that you also probably think the Earth is flat. Explain the cash position and actual gross margin achieved of 62% in 2025 if you believe that

Shychap, I have been over this with a fine tooth comb. You need also to consider the Gross Margin percentage. From the Investor Meets Apr 25 Slide 23 Income Statement

Gross Margin = 56% forecast for 2025

Revenue growth following 2 acquisitions with Gross margin reduction due to mix of products being sold with the 2 acquisitions (58% Dermatonics, 50% BTS)

From the Singer note: "We assume a FY25E gross profit margin of 56.9%, with gross profit therefore expected to be £2.9m. The lower margin profile vs FY24 reflects the change in product sales mix post acquisitions."

Singer do not include Croda royalties else the Gross Margin % would have reflected their estimate for 2026 i.e. nearer 64%

Toyin, you know and I know that you do not need both matrixyl and zenakine in the same formula but if Customers choose to pay for both ingredients then Croda are more than happy to supply although with margins favouring zenakine the latter will be pushed more proactively i suspect. Rather than focusing on Tight Junctions, look at the prime benefit of matrixyl that you highlighted "While primarily known for its anti-aging, collagen-boosting effects, Matrixyl aids in skin hydration and repair, which directly impacts the skin's ability to retain moisture." and then look at what slide 26 says about zenakine

At 3 %, it increases the production of: - Collagen I by 36 % * and collagen IV by 67 %* - Fibronectin by +20 %* and laminins by 26 %*"; matrixyl will be dead in the water once Croda's customers to switch

Croda slide 24

Epidermis reinforcement Corneodesmosin Filaggrin Anchors corneocytes together, maintaining cohesion in the outermost skin layer Contributes to natural moisturising factors for barrier hydration Involucrin Forms part of the cornified envelope, reinforcing the physical barrier of the epidermis ZO-1 Zonula Occludens-1, a tight junction protein that controls paracellular permeability and prevents water loss Hyaluronic acid Retains moisture in the extracellular matrix

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.skinbiotherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Croda-Beauty-Actives_Technical-seminar-theatre-4_8th.pdf

Shychap, Singer's note was not on the money. The SBTX forecast was £5.3M revenue comprising 9 mths BTS Contribution, 12 mths Dermatonics contribution and £400k for Axisbiotix and nothing for Zenakine royalties. Singer forecast £5.1M comprising 8 mths BTS Contribution (as the acquisition took place mid month they rounded down whilst SBTX rounded up) , 12 mths Dermatonics contribution and £400k for Axisbiotix and nothing for zenakine royalties.

Actual revenue was £4.6M including £768k for zenakine royalties so Singer's are a year behind in their Croda royalty forecasts

"On a Group basis, revenues are expected to increase 223%/22%/32% to £5.1m/£6.2m/£8.2m in FY25E/FY26E/FY27E respectively. This steep acceleration in revenues is driven by the positive impact of the recent acquisitions (Dermatonics/BTS) in the near-term, and thereafter the potential transformational impact of both the Croda and Superdrug commercial agreements in the medium to longer term.

We assume a FY25E gross profit margin of 56.9%, with gross profit therefore expected to be £2.9m. The lower margin profile vs FY24 reflects the change in product sales mix post acquisitions. We assume an uplift in FY26E gross profit margin to 63.9%, reflecting an improved sales mix, and Croda royalties which drop through to the bottom line, with gross profit therefore expected to be £4.0m"

Toyin, i suggest you re-listen to the investor Meets Apr 2025 where Q&A Q4 asked just this question

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/investor-presentation-825

"Q4 Having been repeated told that what attracted Croda to skinbiotix was that it was the first ingredient to tackle the "wholly trinity" of the skin barrier function by reducing Transepidermal Water Loss, Closing of Tight Junctions and Improving skin elasticity, why was the focus of the launch purely on the "new" findings related to esoteric benefits associated with a more rested appearance with fewer lines, smoother and more dynamic skin, enhanced emotional balance with increased happiness, improved sleep quality, and faster fatigue recovery upon waking?"

The "New Primary Colour" angle is the main marketing hook and don't forget Croda do not market to the public but other Company Formulators who will be fully aware of the other benefits of "Zenakine"

Toyin, TEWL and tight junctions reference has not been removed by Croda and are referenced in the presentation given by Croda at in-cosmetics.

Concur with that, in fact Singer had nothing at all for Croda for FY 25

Hi ox, the figures have already been calculated by Singers for zenakine based on matrixyl, the only question is how many years it takes to reach peak sales and how much bigger zenakine is:

"The deal terms with Croda are not disclosed and thus difficult to forecast. As a proxy we have reviewed the market success of Matrixyl, asynthetic peptide blend known for its ability to stimulate collagen production. Matrixyl was invented at Sederma, also part of Croda. TheMatrixyl market was valued at $100m in 2023 and is projected to reach $195m by 2031 (10.2% CAGR 2024-2031)11. We conservatively assume that Zenakine will have similar sales (although the potential could be 2-3x Matrixyl peak sales). We assume that the market grows at 8.5% yoy,with an addressable market of $400m by 2040"

Beluga, I am also one of the old guard. I agree with a number of points that Toyin makes, just not the number of times he feels the need to repeat them. Just bear in mind none of the old guard are short of this stock and all want the share price to go up from here. toyin took part in a podcast with elric prior to the unexpected fund raise for the Superdrug launch, at which point he was extremely bullish and his forecast was for the share price to hit 52p by the end of Calendar year 2025, so perhaps you can understand why he is so disillusioned with the revenue miss and keen to see the Superdrug launch properly supported rather than make any additional acquisitions at this stage.

Noted thankyou net

Nice find mol. I have a friend married to a Chinese National staying in their flat in China currently. Will ask him whether he can find anymore mentions of zenakine.

Friedman, unlike the US Partner who pays a pre Launch royalty for exclusivity for Monkfruit based sweetbiotix, DSM Firmenich pay no such royalty for stevenoil based sweetbiotix and have no exclusivity. Also, the extra dimension of sucrose based sweetbiotix has subsequently been introduced following the discovery of the new enzyme which neither partner has exclusive rights to

Ox, of course the house Broker took their cue from SBTX so you would be better posing your analyst question to SBTX. Who raises over £4M to launch a new product into over 200 Stores without considering how, and how much would be needed to promote it?

Ox, agree regarding the Sederma under estimate but don't forget the estimate for axisbiotix on the back of the Superdrug launch came from the House Broker Singer so really ought to be a realistic benchmark

Yes a sensible post Toyin, and apologies to mol read several posts criticising the currency of the website on top of all the other gripes and saw red.

For info:

Singer's lowball estimate was for 200 Stores at 3 boxes for each of the axis products at £30 per box over a circa 264 week period based on a Sept 26 start, which would have given revenue nearer £1.31M split 60/40 between SBTX and Superdrug for FY26. Taking into account the later start and number of poorly stocked Stores, we will be a long way off that lowball estimate I suspect.

Whilst there has been a bit more activity for Axis-ps rather than axis-ac; 7 Stores have gone from In Stock to Low Stock, 8 from Lowstock to Nil Stock, 7 from lowstock to In Stock and 3 No Stock to Low Stock, it is still a very patchy picture.

Axis-ac @ 20th Dec 25

NO STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 80

LOW STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 73

STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 27

Axis=ac @ 24th Jan 26

NO STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 76

LOW STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 62

STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 42

Axis-ps @ 05th Jan 26

NO STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 49

LOW STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 93

STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 38

Axis-ps @ 02nd Feb 26

NO STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 54

LOW STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 87

STOCK PHASE 1 STORES 39

Note, some Stores have axis-ac but not axis-ps and vice versa giving total Stores with neither of 41 @ 05th Jan 26 rising to 42 @ 02nd Feb 26

Ffs it automatically inserts a capital at the start of a sentence once sent!