Perhaps it just might be that the major revenue stream expected from the Weichai agreement has still to materialise nearly 2 years on with no end date forecast for its conclusion don't you think Spacerat?
Will steadily recover towards the early Nov 3rd qtr trading update else will be in for a hell of a rerate on the day of the update if these comments from the interims hold true
""Margin development in the first half was in line with our expectations. In the second half, we expect a clear step up in both trading margin and cash generation as we begin to see the benefit of productivity gains and start bringing down inventory levels.
"Importantly, we continue to build the foundations for sustainable higher growth through our 12-Point Plan, with product availability improving and a high cadence of innovation. So far this year we have launched 13 new products, with major launches underway in high growth segments including robotics, shoulder replacement and negative pressure wound therapy.""
Sry toyin, Ignore that last comment seems lost my way following the tread which I put down to old age.. makemoremoneys comment is factually correct regarding sweetbiotix, it will/already has arguably for recent investors, been an inflection point and should finally be happening in the not too distant future
Wouldn't disagree about the sweetbiotix comment but Andrew's comments which you cast doubts over were specifically to do with H2 revenue which will be quite a bit higher than H1
Toyin, H2 figures will be more it is a question of by how much. Known revenue for H2 from RNS - £130,000 India, £236,000 so ev0 US (this will include the sweetbiotix annual royalty and initial US slimbiome order) UK sales should continue to increase from h1 £142,000 and ROW H1 sales were £209,000 which is over £700K
LWHL,
Must agree with the spin comment. Lat year SOH saw fit to gloss over a total revenue figure that included the probiotix sales to inflate a poor years performance and this year has sought to remove them to improve comparison figures
Hold fast that India calculation, just reread the RNS and came across this comment "The business in India has a strong pipeline with emerging and leading players in weight management and sports nutrition and if launches go to plan, we would anticipate sales in the region of £130k this financial year." so goodness knows what the 500% increase figure refers to as it's certainly not based on last year's reported figure of £61K actual India revenue which was 2022 H2 based.
Agree H1 figures very disappointing but worth noting that " Improved sales performance in H1 2023 by Apollo Pharmacies (up 500%) in India and Nahdi Medical (up 30%) in Saudi Arabia following more active account management. These increased sales are not reflected in H1 but impact on restocking requirements in H2 2023". Apollo sales were £61K last year so 500% increase £300K H2. Other interesting thing when you go to the bottom of the report and look at the Geographical sales split, nothing for US H1 but in H1 2022 there was £15K revenue which means the end of year US figure of £100K means that the "6 figure" sweetbiotix annual royalty is in dollars.
One part of me is secretly hoping there is no news on display market orders or patent infringement claims before £33M of the second settlement payment arrives in Feb and hopefully given as a 10p dividend as I want to see how the market really reacts to the post dividend era where the share price is net 7p giving a M/C of £23M despite the company holding cash remains of £30M
Quiet here. I guess we're all waiting more more details on the Acne Study expected this week.
"Further details of the study will be disclosed by the end of Third Quarter 2023. "
Moniman, when Poolbeg land a big pharma deal resulting in negligible revenue to substantial revenue and profitability overnight, the shareprice will not just limp back to the IPO price it will I suspect multibag
No I didn't go but SOH did attend and was apparently given a very hard time by Lucien Miers who whilst not short on the share is a bear in the light of past performance
From the comments made in the EOY results post period and recent Commercial update, I predict the following:
"A further ten metric tonnes of SlimBiome, approximating to £300k was taken from stock held by distributors for our two largest partners, and not included in these accounts. Once this stock overhang is clear this should have a material impact on reportable revenue."
So £300K from Australian Partner and H&B if I am reading the aforementioned correctly
Launch of GoFigure® products in India with Apollo Hospitals & Pharmacies in September 2022 resulted in £61,000 revenue. Since then "á The launch in September 2022 of our GoFigure range of weight management products containing SlimBiome¨ in several pharmacies across India owned by Apollo Hospitals & Pharmacies. This number has doubled in 2023 with the aim of having products in more than 1000 stores by the end of 2023" So £120K not unreasonable. £100k from Nahdi based on £250K year forecast, and of course online sales have increased significantly from last year so further £200k possible there
So my forecast is £720K although costs will have rocketed too
Agree with that martinu; online accounted for just £0.B5 of the £6.5B 2022 revenue
SOH does not routinely announce RNS patents/updates, even the patent released in April this year related to the Microbiome Modulators failed to get a mention
https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadPdf/11622980
That said, improving the solubility of slimbiome in something like the weight loss shots is an important step forward as anyone who has bought and tried the shots from H&B can testify where some individual shot packets have already solidified prior to opening and are unusable and the usable shots quickly turn to gloop if not drunk fairly quickly.
Incidentally, the last patent update for sweetbiotix was Apr 2021 and identifies the different approach to treating Steviol based sweeteners (Firmenich partner) and Mogroside V (US Partner) so the novel structural concerns relating to freeze drying the Mogroside based sweetbiotix on scale up wont necessarily be encountered for the Steviol based sweetbiotix
https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadPdf/20210100272
A new extension to a n existing payent
Not for sweetbiotix unfortunately, but an agglomerated (granulated) form of slimbiome which potentially extends its shelflife but more importantly makes it easier to dissolve when added to water
https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadPdf/20230292806
I can see that from the number of posts, still beats watching paint dry I guess
Time will prove who is right troublesome but we both seam to agree no downside risk at least
Troublesome, the point I am trying to make is that even without the anticipated contract announcement or license revenue recovery news from suspected patent infringers, the share price will rerate by the time the second instalment is paid in Feb because on fundamentals the pullback has been too severe and is unjustified.